Villain in this hand turned out to be 42/21, at the time I had him like 35/18 through short sample. Turned out to be a drooler but I didn't know that at the time.

Original raiser is 28/19 and seems good.

my image is nitty, 18/15 and that should be what their stats say. I'm squeezing on this image looking for folds but flop an interesting hand.

Hows' the flop/turn?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($222)
Hero ($200)
UTG ($256)
UTG+1 ($200)
CO ($202)
BTN ($200)

Dealt to Hero 7 8

fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, CO calls $6, fold, fold, Hero raises to $26, fold, CO calls $20

FLOP ($59) 4 6 T

Hero bets $32, CO calls $32

TURN ($123) 4 6 T K

Hero bets $142 (AI)

It's kind of not necessary to shove here. You could still just be around half pot and save yourself some money on the bluff.

Nothing too bad with squueze if you have tight image, not that 35/18 will nessecery think about that he might see just two cards front of him. Flop is standard to cbet as he might have lot of broadway stuff he'll fold to cbet and turn is mandatory to bet as he might have lot of sc and pp's which might fold now and beside foldeing equity you have some pot equity as well. Standar to 2barrel when you end up called and board falls like this.

edit: like said you get same FE with smaller bet, 70-80ish should do the same job.

Q: What do we do on a blank/diamond/T?

Don't we have to call if we bet half pot and he shoves? We need like 4:1 vs a really strong range, and half pot bet of like $64 on the turn leaves us needing to call $78 into $322.

I think with a double gutshot it's more of a decision of if shoving or bet/calling some other amount will have more FE. I would probably bet/call, and probably something like $88.

Meh depends on how you size it. He could bet a size that doesn't commit him since it sucks to get it in in this spot anyway.

Yeah but wouldn't you have to bet like 1/3 pot or something dumb to be able to fold? On a turn like this I'm guessing it's waaaaay more +EV to bet what is pretty much the nut non straight turn big and just call it off the times that he does shove.

i would bet bigger on the flop so i can shove this turn without an overbet

What turns are you shoving? Probably needs to be quite often to justify bloating the flop in case you get raised or the turn sucks for barreling. I'm not sure that really gives you enough extra FE than making the same bet in relation to a smaller turn pot and calling if he shoves over.

this. Its not much more at all.

That's what I was thinking too.

don't squeeze a 35/18?

I'd rather bet/call like $85

i like this

As played, I like the turn shove. Check-calling the turn just ****s your hand all up. I don't see any point in betting a fraction of the pot on the turn, either. When you squeeze junk and then smash the flop like this, I wouldn't be looking for a way out. Why not continuing representing the hand you are trying to represent.

The pot is $123 on the turn, and you presumably have 8 outs to his shove-calling range (minus possible diamond combos). 17.5% chance to scoop $265 when betting $142 and called, and 100% chance to scoop $123 when you bet $142 and get a fold. Say that villain fold 50% of the time....

You're expected value when called is negative $95.
You're expected value when folded is $123.
= plus $28
= You are wayyyyy in equity.

I'm not very good at math.... so i may have ****ed something up here, but if i'm right, you only need like 40% fold to break even. Maybe someone smart can check this for me.??

EV(0) = Fold %*EV(Fold) + (1-Fold %)*EV(Called)

EV(0)= Fold % * 123 - 95 + Fold% * 95

213*Fold % = 95

Fold % = 95/213 = 0,436

Fold % = 43,6

So villain needs to fold 43,6 % this to be break-even.

why? I think it's better to make your flopbet smaller so you have FE on the turn with a pot sized bet. K is a perfect barrelcard.

I would fold pre,

Bet bigger on flop. As played, I don't overbet (nor do I fold).

This is sort of true. Even though over a small sample it is obvious that the guy is fairly passive preflop and really really likes to see flops, so don't squeeze low drawing hands like this or SC's against a guy that's likely to call IP because you just flops a low pair or draw - wit which you'd like a higher SPR to play

SQ high-card combos instead - you'll quite easily get ur moneyz in better

I find the bet size on the turn thing really interesting. So for those who suggest 85-88/call, that's obviously to save $60 on the river by c/f right?

My thought process was 35/18 probably wouldn't see a smaller bet as 'scarier' than the big one and I'm obviously trying to get him off whatever he's got. Obviously a good or decent player recognizes 88 for what's behind.

Results because they're funny in this case: Villain in this case truly was a drooler and called with a .... *ahem*... worse hand than mine... 75o. Ship it with 8 high :P

It's mostly because I think betting a more "standard" sizing looks less bluffy so I expect it to have more FE. It's a small benefit if they do happen to flat with so little behind and you miss that you don't have to get the rest in when you miss, but that's not the only reason I'm doing it.

Yeah I follow and I think vs. a thinking / normal player 88 looks as strong. If you're playing against a chimp though, doesn't max pressure mean max money?

Not saying this guy was a chimp btw particularly, but just in general don't thinking players take 88 with 60 behind a lot differently than a fish does?

I think it's more about the effect of them seeing an overbet shove more than them seeing that you bet 88 into the pot but only have 60 behind meaning you obviously can't be folding. Some people see an overbet and think it's a bluff just because it's an overbet, so they call wider even though the bet is bigger. Vs some people it will have more FE but without knowing that I would take the standard bet/call approach instead of shoving.

i have to agree with you on average it's better to bet 88/call

What if we bet a bit bigger on the flop and shove turn (under a psb), any effect?

this. like 37 then shove turn