200NL; KQ flops TP2K; Gets to the river - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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200NL; KQ flops TP2K; Gets to the river

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11-13-2008 , 04:53 PM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,103

Villain is 37/18/3 over 99 hands

Turn - good or bad?

How do we want to approach this river and why? Effective stack remaining is $218.70.

(Alphabetical order): Bet/Call? Bet/Fold? Check/Call? Check/Fold?

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $274.20
SB: $197.00
BB: $150.70
UTG: $212.50
Hero (MP): $829.00
CO: $453.45

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with K

1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, BTN calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($18.05) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, BTN calls $13.50

Turn: ($43.70) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $34, BTN calls $34

River: ($111.00) 5

(2 players)
Hero ???

11-13-2008 , 04:54 PM

shpanko

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 13,924

b/c sucks. I'd eitehr b/f or c/c, prob c/c against this guy

11-13-2008 , 06:07 PM

flopthejoint

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 61

Without history that this guy bluffs rivers, I think c/c is the worst option.. He checks back most of what we beat and vbets his flushes and Ts..

I b/f

11-13-2008 , 06:18 PM

the machine

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 10,551

obv dont b/c. hes likely not raising worse.

turn is ok, in position i think id like to pot control but i dont hate betting being OOP.

i think c/c and b/f are both good. is his river AF high? if so c/c is better then b/f

11-13-2008 , 06:40 PM

Bradley Mike

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 283

b/f can't be very wrong

11-13-2008 , 06:44 PM

BigMac1082

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 552

I probably c/c or c/f depending on bet size, timing, etc. I think betting the river here is too thin. I think he raises the turn with flushes, calls with boats, draws, and worse queens. He probably bluffs the river with missed draws and bets boats, but won't bet a worse queen, but I also think his worse queens would probably fold to a river bet anyway.

11-13-2008 , 06:50 PM

PJ0548

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,119

i think b/f is better then c/c because his callingrange is wider then his bettingrange. don't think he will have missed draws often whitout SDvalue.

11-13-2008 , 06:54 PM

BigMac1082

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 552

Quote:

Originally Posted by PJ0548

i think b/f is better then c/c because his callingrange is wider then his bettingrange. don't think he will have missed draws often whitout SDvalue.

What's in his calling range that we beat?

What's in his river betting range?

11-13-2008 , 07:07 PM

PJ0548

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,119

stats doesn't say alot about his agression with this samplesize

11-13-2008 , 07:09 PM

#10

PJ0548

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,119

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMac1082

What's in his calling range that we beat?

What's in his river betting range?

Qx

Qx but think he will check that back very often
somtimes missed spade but that's not a logic hand for him to have and he doesn't always bluff missed draws.

i want to c/f btw but just wanted to mention this

11-13-2008 , 07:11 PM

#11

BigMac1082

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 552

FWIW I think is river bluffing frequency is much higher than his frequency for calling with worse. And we get to see a showdown when we're beat, which if we b/f we do not.

11-13-2008 , 07:24 PM

#12

spivey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 9,751

Quote:

Originally Posted by PJ0548

i think b/f is better then c/c because his callingrange is wider then his bettingrange. don't think he will have missed draws often whitout SDvalue.

Which draws have show down value (and will call another bet), exactly?

11-13-2008 , 07:28 PM

#13

freedom.fries

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,730

I think c/f and b/f are OK, c/c is bad.

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