Villain is 10/17/3.1 with 27% steal, 0% 3bet, and 50% fold to c-bet.
I am probably running around 24/20/3.5 with 7% 3-bet.

First, this hand happens in a bvb:

Folded to villain in SB who raises, and I call with KJo.
Flop: AT6, all hearts.
Villain bets $5 into $12, I call.
Turn: offsuit Q. Villain check/calls my $14 bet.
River is an offsuit rag, and villain check/calls my $40 into $48 bet. I show my gutshot and he mucks AJo (no hearts).

2 minutes after that hand, on a different table, the following hand comes up against the same villain. As my stats suggest I have been quite active on most of my tables. I think villain is not good enough to realize that he can't represent anything by c/r that flop, so I float and get it in on the turn.

I'm not a big fan of the K but I think his range still has so much air that it is worth it. Comments?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($680.83)
UTG 1 ($303.48)
CO ($195.00)
Hero ($214.00)
SB ($198.00)
BB ($196.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN 6 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: T 4 3 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $31, Hero calls $20

Turn: K ($77, 2 players)
BB bets $58, Hero raises to $176

I think raising that K on the turn is OK once in a while but I would usually fold the flop. Why can't he have a set?

I assume he's 17/10, not the type of villain I would qualify as a bluffer, more like a weakish tag. Not the type to make these moves against, imo, unless you feel that he's specifically playing back at you / tilted after that other hand.

I like this line a lot, but not against this type of player, even with that history.

Well his range is polarized as hell on the flop but I doubt this guy is ever bluffing

He's not representing much but I wouldn't expect this type of player to be very bluffy.

i like the float, and i think the K is a good card for you to pull the trigger.

I dont. The king hits a good portion of his flop cr bluffs (KQ/J) and he wont fold them or the set he was repping. That said im not sure he is bluff check raising the flop with a high frequency anyway. Id fold flop.

I mean, you are pretty much repping KT and KT only. Kinda spewy and unnecesarry imo.

why do we have to believe BB has a set? I think its likely he has a Tx as looking at the first hand and his general weak/tightness he is looking to end the hand there. Is he really C/R bluffing us with KJ? It doesnt seem to fit his style.. whereas that K matches a good proportion of the range which we would raise PF, cont-bet and call a low uncoordinated board.

We don't have to believe it. It is just that this play has to work a lot to be profitable, and it is just that: a play. We are laying 175 to win 120 on FE alone and is, frankly, just not a great spot. Winning poker is about your opponents making more mistakes than you. In the end, solid play will get the cash, and this is just an unnecessary risk.

I mean how mant 10s is he playing like this? How many hands with a 10 in does a guy with a 17 VPIP call OOP? A10, 910, 10J, maybe, and then how often is he check raising 10 high boards which wouldnt be standard with any of those hands?

You can't win every pot. He may be bluffing and your turn raise will work a percentage of the time. However, without running the math I would expect this move to be unprofitable overall. He simply is not bluffing often enough. Bluff raising your cbet is one thing, following up with a solid turn bet when an over card hits is new information that you need to consider.

Also, if he has you beat, you are drawing to only 4 outs. A better redraw can help offset this play by increasing your equity.

Overall, unnecessary and unprofitable in my opinion.

i like the move, just not vs a 17/10 :-\

unfortunately he's going to have a set alot.

your risking 176 to win 135 so you need to win this over 50% of the time(meh dont have a calc with me atm so wont do exact math), hes like never c/r air and following through that often + the k hits some of his bluff c/r range

Smartest thing I've read today.