Donker is a TAG fish 23/15 Raiser is aggro Russian Reg 24/19 15% flop raise, I think he is aggro but not out of control I don't ever see him showing up here with KJ,KQ etc I think he has Value here pretty often I was thinking about rejamming PF but I think I just get called by sets way to often and fold out worse.

Winning Poker Network - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 127.4 BB
Hero (BB): 169.66 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 157.18 BB
BTN: 57.64 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 8 7 K
SB bets 5.7 BB, Hero calls 5.7 BB, CO raises to 22 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 16.3 BB

Turn: (61.7 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, CO bets 32 BB, Hero??



Villian is 32/24 no other reads 25 hands His line seems pretty strong his turn bet is pretty Big

Thoughts? Was considering jamming turn?


Winning Poker Network - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 102.18 BB
Hero (CO): 114.83 BB
BTN: 113.29 BB
SB: 61.76 BB
BB: 101.81 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 7

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 6 9 K
Hero bets 3.48 BB, BTN raises to 10.5 BB, Hero calls 7.02 BB

Turn: (26.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets 20 BB, Hero??

First hand I'd call.

Second I'd really like to raise, since we have so many outs and opponents range isn't very strong, depending on opponent ofc, but on general we have a lot of fold equity. Whether to jam or raise-call is quite a problem.. I see good sides in both of them, not too many hands on our jam range there so maybe just a decent sized raise and play it from there.

First off, I just bought Flopzilla so bear with me as I attempt to fumble my way through this first hand...

So, if you're certain that we're only ever up against AK or a set then we're facing TPTK about 57% of the time on this flop. (8 combos of AK vs. 6 combos of 77-88)

Now, against that range we've only got 23% equity on the turn.

Board: K87*6
******* Equity*****Win*****Tie
Hero****23.05%**23.05%***0.00%*{ KQ }
CO** **76.95%**76.95%***0.00%*{ 88-77, AKs, AKo }

Following that, we'll need to plug all this into our handy dandy Fold Equity Calculator to see how often we need him to muck in order to make this jam on the turn profitable... Right?

Fold Equity Calculator http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
Effective Stack / What We Push: 100.5
Estimated Equity: 23%
Pot Size: 61.7
Facing Bet: 32

Therefore, our Villain must fold at least 43% of the time to make this shove come out ahead.

What do you think; will our Villian fold his AK enough to make this shove +ev?

*Please let me know if I've butchered the math & / or the logic at any point here...
As I said, I'm a Flopzilla virgin so be gentle.

Don't we push more then 100 on the turn? I think it would be 132 bb's ish

CO is the effective stack & starts the hand w/ 157.18 BB.

157.18 -3 pre-flop rasie -22 flop rasie -32 turn bet = 100.18 BB

Also, there maybe something to just shoving over the top of the CO's raise on the flop.

First, we may just take down a 45.4 BB pot right now on a semi-bluff.

Now, if our Villian does call us; we've got more than enough of equity against even the top of his range, as he only needs to fold 22% of the time, to make it a profitable all in bet here.

As my teachers always said "Show your work!"

Board: K87
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
Hero****47.43%**47.23%***0.20%*{ KQ }
CO** **52.57%**52.37%***0.20%*{ QQ+, 88-77, AKs, AKo }

Fold Equity Calculator http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
Effective Stack / What We Push: 132
Estimated Equity: 47.23%
Pot Size: 23.4
Facing Bet: 22

But we are pushing more then 100.18 because we didn't call the turn Bet so effectively we are shoving 132. Maybe I'm confused? By my calculations Villain must fold at least 51% of the time. using FPP PRO calculator.

Like I said, I'm working through it for the first time here...
Either way, with the strength the Villian has shown on three straight streets I doubt he folds 43% or 51% of the time on the turn.

Overall, I think that shoving over the Villian's raise on the flop would have been the best way to go...

Yea when you're doing the calc it's the total amount you shove including the initial call of villain's bet.

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