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Originally Posted by LucKeeRiceBalls
^^do you think these guy are more likely to auto call KQ or auto fold KQ. do you also assume KQ=sets baby flush too?
I have no idea what this particular villain will auto call or fold with. The point is that people overvalue hand strength in a vacuum for no logical reason. Eg - in this hand for this villain QT might be a snap fold, KQ a decision, and 2h3h a snap call fist pump. That is completely illogical given what hero is repping, but it's what happens. So in general intentionally trying to get people to fold 2pair+ is just not a good idea because you're reaching deeper into that zone where people's absolute hand strength starts to be given more weight than logic and hand reading.
And maybe it's not even a particularly bad idea for them to play this way. I mean if hero has any bluffs on this river, which he obviously does, then it is possible villain should be calling some percentage of the time with hands that can beat bluffs but not much else. This of course depends on hero's bluff frequency. But if villain does call 100% of the time with bluff catchers then he will be easy to exploit as hero can observe him call with QTo (again using this hand as an example, in reality it's probably 0% of his range) and then on future action value bet incredibly thin for 1.5x pot. And if hero notices villain has never once called this river with anything short of the jack high flush then hero can on future action bluff villain easily whenever he checks in a spot where his range is likely capped.
So hand strength can work as a bluff catching frequency. I have no idea if this is the thought process your average villain is using when deciding to call in really strange spots with hands that have strong absolute value but close to no value against a villain's repped range. I don't think it is, but regardless they do it. And because of this, it's just not smart to try to bluff people off a certain level of absolute strength in hand value at SSNL. And in this instance, hero is explicitly attempting to bluff villain off 2pair+. It's not going to be a good idea.