Quote:
Originally Posted by Dying Actors
bet this all day. its a straight value/protection bet.
as for sizing, id probably bet $31 or so.
i think this is a big mistake. assuming he has something like AK he has 6 outs, but let us take the assumption any card higher than J+ is an out for him, since we do not know if he has AK, AQ, KQ etc, i.e. we are looking for 14 outs here, i.e. his equity share of the pot by the turn is 28% * $50 = $14.
in essence then we are betting $31 to protect $14, which is an expensive bet to do.
i think the better move is to check and bluff catch the river and call (alternatively bluff raise the river).
theoretically i think this is the best way to profit from someone who bluffs a lot and not by stopping him from bluffing with a costly bet.
PS: as for a value bet, i dont think any worse will call us and better hands (QQ, JJ) are certainly calling.