Ignition Zone .5/1
6-max - Seat #5 (HERO) is the button

Seat 1: Big Blind ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG ($128.35 in chips)
Seat 3: UTGplus1 ($205.83 in chips)
Seat 4: UTGplus2 ($101 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($97 in chips)
Seat 6: Small Blind ($118.80 in chips)

Small Blind: posts small blind $0.50
Big Blind: posts big blind $1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [6d 7d]
UTG: folds
UTGplus1: raises $3 to $3
UTGplus2: folds
Hero: raises $9.50 to $9.50
Small Blind: folds
Big Blind: folds
UTGplus1: calls $6.50

pot=20.50
*** FLOP *** [8c 5c 7c]
UTGplus1: checks
Hero: bets $11.50
UTGplus1: raises $29.95 to $29.95

pot = 43.50 +18.45 = 61.95
shove/ call = 76.00 into 119.50

Hero?
I figure we have around 40% equity vs his c/r range (before adding in any bluffs) so once we bet, have to shove. Any thoughts on flop sizing? Anyone chk back here?

flat pre and check flop. betting flop is awful.

i prefer 3betting pre actually. we want to have a polarized 3bet range here and 67s is a good bluff hand candidate. flatting seems pretty marginal but im not sure

My pf here has been a mix between all 3. I agree that typically it’s default chk back flop. But in this exact spot, would I be counting on him to play badly by thinking: I like to get folds OTF because it’s going to be so hard to get to showdown w my 40% equity vs the top portion of his range. And, If he just called OTF he would nearly always have any TT-QQ and I could bluff any club OTT getting him to fold more than half the time?

not a fan of bluffing club turn because his continuing range is going to have a lot of clubs. betting this hand makes our checking range very face up ie high cards (unless you check back some overpairs which doesn't make sense). and we get crushed by his continuing range with a hand that would be OK to check and take to show down. so just a slamdunk check for me

How did you get 40% vs his c/r range. What combos do you really think is he c/r flop with? I'm a little bit confused, because if he is c/r, he isn't c/f probablly.. so seems like nuts to me (flopped flush or set of 88?), but players are probablly a lot more loose at NL100. However, you block 78 and I don't know if he is calling your 3b with AJo+ (and then have a blocker that would c/r)..

I also don't know how often do players flat call 3b with QQ+ on NL100.

c/b flop, pre flat and 3bet are both fine

You're either calling or 3-betting pre.

I like your 3-bet line because if we call we're expecting somewhere around 35-40% equity and folding most flops we don't hit, by 3-betting we're raising for a chance to instantly realize full pot equity and folding out a lot of better hands while still having good equity if he calls.

On this flop you're really not trying to further inflate the pot with your draw. As played your line is not horrible but you're greatly increasing your variance and he's likely not folding 2 overs, overpairs, sets, 7-7, and maybe he floats 1 with his underpairs too.

That being said, I think we really want to check back flop to draw to our outs and avoid bloating the pot and also to realize the advantage of our position by seeing how he reacts on the turn and proceeding from there.

Agree with this post

The comment about being able to bluff turn was hypothetical if he were to c/c flop instead of c/r. My range thoughts were this - I think it's reasonable for him to get here with TT-QQ. I didn't include AA KK. Basing most of my logic on him c/r with most of continuing range, trying to GII otf.

Mainly because he's oop calling 3bet, wet flop and most players will commit right here.

I tweaked bcz you led me to think more conservatively and now see 32% equity vs is c/r range (originally had KQo hands with clubs and AK with Kc)...
88-QQ - any 88 and any 99 -QQ w a club
AKs AQs of clubs (ok these maybe wayyy more likely to flat w/ nuts +blockers so i removed these too)
AQ w A of clubs
AK w A of clubs

His flatting range and how we continue against it - also you have helped me realize that KQo w club and AK AQ w KorQ of clubs are usually flatting flop. Leaving others out bcz I have blockers and rarely give anyone credit for getting here pre w 22-77.

So lets say I plan to bet 2/3 pot on certain turns after being flatted

99-QQ w no clubs - all fold when I bluff club AQorK (12 of 26 combos fold on 36% of turns)

(KQ AQ AK)w K or Q of club - fold if turn is not an AKQ or club (12 of 26 combos fold on 58 % of turns)

AQ AK of clubs - (2 of 26 combos fold 0%)

So now I see the reverse of my original logic... if flatted only bluff turns that are NOT an AKQ or club, and take our equity vs those non-club TT-QQ when turn is a club.

OK not sure where to take it from here, definitely looking worse than thin in any scenario that includes betting flop. Thanks for all the comments, pretty clear consensus, just trying to improve w/ playing + evaluating rnge vs rnge

So basically he folds 0%?

well we can't fold it. I'd 3-bet if I was cutoff here for sure. But otb, I'd rather just 3-bet worse and less playable hands. So for me, that leaves call.