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Old 04-30-2010, 08:44 AM   #51
lima
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

I don't think 24/16 is good enough to do this with AsQx and turn his hand into a bluff after you called his Turn C/R and the flush hit which is very much in your range.

His value range consists of Axss and T9ss, cause Qs and Js are on the board and we hold Ks. I don't think he's bluffing here often enough for us to be profitable by calling this in the long term.

It's a fold.
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Old 04-30-2010, 09:22 AM   #52
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

You cant fold if he does this with T9ss, are you crazy?
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Old 04-30-2010, 09:41 AM   #53
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Yeah, the stacks are so deep to fold a K high flush. Don't worry about your fold, it's just a technical - elegant fold. 90% oppo had the nuts AX of spades or T9 of spades. Hes raise allin on the river can be also a real EV+ in case hero calls and a hidden EV+ for bluff induce...
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Old 04-30-2010, 09:59 AM   #54
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

I see what you're getting at Dire, and you're making a pretty good point. It's definitely better to fold the A flush than the K flush, and I never disagreed with you on that. I was just simply stating that villain takes this line with one hand, and one hand only, when we have the A in our hand.

The problem right now seems to be that he needs to bluff 1.2 - 1.3 (or so?) of the 3 possible combos combos of AsQx every time he has it, if we assume he takes this line with As2s, Ts9s and AsQx. We can't really extrapolate on reads, but the pot control thing makes me inclined to think that he won't necessarily be so aggressive that he'll actually bluff this huge on the river that often. He might do it once in a blue moon, but more than once every three times he gets to the river with AsQx? The EV of a call on the river, when he bluffs one combo of AsQx along with the two nut hands we've talked about, is -$14.
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:06 AM   #55
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Any flush is going to raise on the river. If he has even the smallest flush, I think it's very possible he'll reraise on the river. When you make a flush w/ two suited hole cards you have to assume you're best, just like when you have a boat with a small PP. The problem is his turn check raise, IDK if he does that with a small flush draw but he'd definetly do that with A2 SS. You'd all agree that if everything was played the exact same except he check called the turn instead of check raising, that this would be an easy call right?
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:15 AM   #56
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Fun fact: A guy who I respect a lot says fold turn, and it makes a lot of sense.
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:46 AM   #57
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Quote:
Originally Posted by ooohjoy View Post
Fun fact: A guy who I respect a lot says fold turn, and it makes a lot of sense.
Disagree in that if we're going to fold turn to a raise this deep we should be checking behind anyway. If we're betting the turn we should be calling this raise unless it's huge.

Edit: Just looked at the sizing, it's small. We're getting like 2.7:1 on the turn with position and deep? I'm not b/f this. If my opponent is very good/tricky with deep stacks I probably check behind.

Edit 2: Looking at it more I could make a case for checking behind here a lot considering we're very deep and unwilling to commit our stack with any hand we could potentially make (2nd nuts).
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:49 AM   #58
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

It's a fold but I probably make the mistake of calling this off in real time without the chance to put proper thought into it. I also wouldn't give a relatively unknown 200nl villain the credit for bluffing with AsQx here with any reasonable frequency. Often the thought process would be oh deah the flush has hit better b/f or c/c.
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:50 AM   #59
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Quote:
Originally Posted by ooohjoy View Post
Fun fact: A guy who I respect a lot says fold turn, and it makes a lot of sense.
Any chance he plays omaha? I wouldn't be folding because I don't think we can expect the action to place us in this spot almost ever.
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Old 04-30-2010, 10:53 AM   #60
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Could he have JJ and be repping an ace bluff on the turn, and then shipping it in with river set? It a spew line.
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Old 04-30-2010, 11:43 AM   #61
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Disregard

Last edited by wooziephantom; 04-30-2010 at 12:10 PM.
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Old 04-30-2010, 11:46 AM   #62
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Quote:
Originally Posted by wooziephantom View Post
Call!
Why wouldn't he do this with worse flushes?
And I doubt he has A2ss here very often at all
Which worse flushdraws checkraise the turn?

Btw, who was villain, assuming this is at FTP?
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Old 04-30-2010, 11:57 AM   #63
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Which random spades, woozie? I doubt he's checkshoving the river with 54 and ****? I mean, we even block a lot of the suited connectors, lol. Having K6 really, really sucks on this board, haha. I'd rather have K3, I think.
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Old 04-30-2010, 12:20 PM   #64
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

I doubt that matters since I don't see him checkraising low flushdraws on the turn.
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Old 04-30-2010, 12:36 PM   #65
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Originally Posted by IpodToucher View Post
I doubt that matters since I don't see him checkraising low flushdraws on the turn.
So u think he's more likely to c/r A7ss on the turn? I disagree with this reasoning.
The only thing that might be on par with such reasoning is how small he makes it on the turn.
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Old 04-30-2010, 12:40 PM   #66
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Originally Posted by wooziephantom View Post
So u think he's more likely to c/r A7ss on the turn? I disagree with this reasoning.
The only thing that might be on par with such reasoning is how small he makes it on the turn.
This guy is never check/shoving small flushes on the river for value unless he's an idiot.
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Old 04-30-2010, 12:43 PM   #67
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

I don't understand how anyone is still talking about this. He c/r'ed the turn and river. His most likely hand is T9ss. People can play Axss like this, because people are bad, but it's rare. Lets make a few assumptions real quick.

Do we assume that a 200NL reg who may or may not be decent, c/red the river 300bbs deep, putting 200bbs in with air or a better hand?

I'm going to ignore him ever having a worse flush, that never happens especially from someone described as SD happy, with low aggression numbers.
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Old 04-30-2010, 01:01 PM   #68
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Originally Posted by Number27 View Post
This guy is never check/shoving small flushes on the river for value unless he's an idiot.
Talking about the turn, my first advice was due to me misreading OP.
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Old 04-30-2010, 01:14 PM   #69
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

If villain feels that the hero has a big Ace, especially AJ or AQ, could him flopping a set of 8's or 2's account for his play.
Admittedly his c/r bet size on the turn has everyone baffled but maybe that was his way of getting more money in the pot without losing his customer.

If the Villain had decided that Hero cannot have a flush draw then he may feel his flopped trips has always been ahead and the river card may just have given Hero 2 pair that he would call with. Plus, the huge c/raise on the river would likely get some flushes to fold (which it did)

That being said, I still think this is a solid fold and you probably should be pleased with it.

I'd also make a note that this may be a tough player for the future.
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Old 04-30-2010, 01:47 PM   #70
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Originally Posted by Dire View Post
No. A huge chunk, like probably close to 99% of the time that he doesn't have the nuts - he has exactly AsQ here.
umm, what?

99% of the time he doesnt have the nuts? wth is this?
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Old 04-30-2010, 01:52 PM   #71
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Pretty easy fold since only Ax spade hands play this way, AQ just bets the river straight up.
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Old 04-30-2010, 02:59 PM   #72
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArturiusX View Post
Pretty easy fold since only Ax spade hands play this way, AQ just bets the river straight up.
Why would Axss raise the turn? i mean, a hand like Axss is a bluff catcher against the range the 2 barrel is repping, so i don't see the value in raising.

that's the part i find odd about the hand, as i wouldn't raise the turn if i picked up top pair with my NFD. As OP stated, i think i would find it more reasonable to raise 9Tss then Axss on the turn.

Last edited by tarayaba; 04-30-2010 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:22 PM   #73
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Quote:
Originally Posted by tarayaba View Post
Why would Axss raise the turn? i mean, a hand like Axss is a bluff catcher against the range the 2 barrel is repping, so i don't see the value in raising.
1) he could have As2s, 2) sometimes people overvalue their hands. people dont always play optimal. maybe he was stuck for the session, and he put in a raise here so that if he hit he would have a chance for all the money to go in on the river. AsXs is def in his range.


Quote:
that's the part i find odd about the hand, as i wouldn't raise the turn if i picked up top pair with my NFD. As OP stated, i think i would find it more reasonable to raise 9Tss then Axss on the turn.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:35 PM   #74
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Too much deep to consider the call-broke strategy.
A2s A3s A4s A5s A6s A7s A9s ATs 9Ts

9 hands reasonably played in call from SB.

Fold is the way.
I think you have to think about a different way to play that spot, maybe a pot control in check-call (because you haven't T9s or AXs) gives you ever the chance to go to the showdown, earn a few cash if you are ahead or lose a few cash without going broke if you are behind.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:50 PM   #75
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

in theory there isn't a big dif between A2 and A3 but whatever. i understand villains don't play perfectly.

Just asked because i understood by ArturiusX's post that playing Axs that way was standard.
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