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Old 04-29-2010, 02:42 PM   #26
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

god its sux so much to fold K-high flush, but he always has it


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Btw, I just thought of something. Everyone who says fold, you are the biggest NIT in the world! THat is true and you can't argue against it, because there is literally nothing nittier than folding 2nd nuts. Just a funny thought I had.
I just thought of something. You will never get anywhere in poker. Just a funny thought I had.
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Old 04-29-2010, 05:13 PM   #27
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

I think he had T9 spades or AT-AX spades. The Ax of spades range is really coherent with with the call preflop from SB, with the call on the flop to pot control, with the minimum 2X raise for value on the turn. Furthermore the hero call on the minimum raise on the turn gives to the oppo the absolute certainty that he can extract more value in case another spades will appear on the river. Just on the raise allin on the river i have some doubts he can really have an Ax of spades because only a bluff induce strategy is consistent with it. Raise allin on the turn in this deep stack contest could be also both Ax spades and T9 of spades. It's more rarely a low flush or a pure bluff.
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Old 04-29-2010, 05:20 PM   #28
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

if you fire second barrels at that turn a lot , I can maybe see stuff like T9s checkraising the turn.

His turn line is just so weird with any hand that beats you on the river though.
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Old 04-29-2010, 08:42 PM   #29
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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I would call.. very quickly. This just looks so much like a really misguided and frustrated AsQ.
everyone and their ******ed uncle would realy misguidedly and frustratedly CALL with that hand
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Old 04-29-2010, 08:59 PM   #30
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

good solid fold
be proud of yourself op
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Old 04-29-2010, 10:59 PM   #31
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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I guess this is why i haven't graduated from 200nl yet
not folding the 3rd nuts when you happen to be 300bb deep is probably not your biggest leak. i would say its not in your top 5 leaks.
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Old 04-30-2010, 12:46 AM   #32
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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not folding the 3rd nuts when you happen to be 300bb deep is probably not your biggest leak. i would say its not in your top 5 leaks.
eh this is a little short sighted. if the problem is that you don't want to fold the king high flush on an unpaired board for 300bb's thats not a big deal. on the other hand, if this situation is just an example of not being able to properly analyze your own line/what you rep and how that affects your opponents value range/bluffing frequency then it's a pretty serious leak that's going to cut into your winrate a ton.
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Old 04-30-2010, 02:54 AM   #33
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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everyone and their ******ed uncle would realy misguidedly and frustratedly CALL with that hand
Up to you brah. If you want to put him exactly on one combo of A2ss, which many people don't even defend their blinds with - then feel free to. I prefer to think about ranges rather than soul read my opponent to having exactly one hand which in turn has exactly one combo, especially when getting 2:1 and he played his hand in a way which is very much not in line with how one would play said hand. But to each their own.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:10 AM   #34
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

And FWIW, I disagree that everybody calls here. This is one spot where I think 2+2 is actually being honest with their answer. Imo the vast majority of $200 TAGs timebank and end up folding without the nuts in this spot even though they also certainly realize there's only one combo of the nuts as played and it's really really unlikely anybody would ever play it this way. People just don't like putting in 300bb without the nuts unless villains can potentially be value jamming worse. Like in spots where you have 55 on a 25T board and a nit wants to get 300bb in even though depending on the nit, he may not ever be getting worse in on that board for 300bb - at least not on the flop.. but we can convince ourselves he is. In this spot it's dead obvious villain never has worse for value.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:13 AM   #35
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

grunch:

don't worry so much about a hand that will have no long term impact on your winrate.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:23 AM   #36
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

fold looks good. id be happy that villain plays so bad you didnt lose nearly as much as you could have.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:54 AM   #37
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Since we can all agree that villain isn't playing smaller flushes this way could we call in this spot with AsQx since the villain can only have 9sTs and bluffs?

I understand that we're not betting AQ on the river when checked to, just putting out a hypothetical where villain has to have nuts to raise and we have the nut blocker.
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Old 04-30-2010, 03:57 AM   #38
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Since we can all agree that villain isn't playing smaller flushes this way could we call in this spot with AsQx since the villain can only have 9sTs and bluffs?

I understand that we're not betting AQ on the river when checked to, just putting out a hypothetical where villain has to have nuts to raise and we have the nut blocker.
thats actually a really good question.

edit: or really, call any AsXx hand. if we're polarizing his range so much.
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Old 04-30-2010, 04:14 AM   #39
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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thats actually a really good question.

edit: or really, call any AsXx hand. if we're polarizing his range so much.
No. A huge chunk, like probably close to 99% of the time that he doesn't have the nuts - he has exactly AsQ here.
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Old 04-30-2010, 04:53 AM   #40
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Actually an interesting question for those have posted in this thread is what do you do with the nut flush here? I'm sure everybody says snap call but that's just so incredibly backwards thinking. People want to fold in OP's spot putting villain exactly on As2s or 9sTs and literally nothing else ever. Literally as in you're getting 2:1 meaning you only need to be good 33% of the time, meaning if he ever has even a single combo of bluff in his range then it's a call. Well when you have the nut flush, by the same logic he would have 9sTs and nothing else ever.

The big problem is with the nut flush you actually take away all his best bluff possibilities with Asx, particularly AsQ. So you want to fold when he has 2 combos of value and plenty of potential reasonable bluffs although you are saying he'd never bluff with them. But you'd want to call when he has 1 combo of value and literally zero potential reasonable bluffs. It's a much worse spot to call, range wise. The only thing that change is our absolute hand value - and that's pretty much the definition of tag fishy thought process.

And if you want to fold the nut flush on this river. Well okay, at least you're consistent in your thought processes but I think you should probably start sitting out when you get deeper than 200bb.
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Old 04-30-2010, 06:13 AM   #41
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

This hand is interesting.

His flop check/call inclines showdown value or something he can continue with that has a lot of potential. I don't think it's unreasonable for him to snail a set, but most people don't. Given the gap in his stats, we can probably give him a couple of more suited aces OOP preflop than a lot of other people. The most important read we're presented with here, is the pot control/showdown read. If he tries to pot control and get to showdown a lot with 100 bbs, I can guarantee you that he's not going to get insanely monkey aggro on us with 200 - 300bbs.

That would mean that he won't checkraise the turn for thin value with a hand like As7s or something like that. When he checkraises the turn, I think he most likely snailed a set, hit two pair or a pretty strong top pair with the flush draw, so something like AsTs, AsJs, AQ, As2s, 88 or 22 would make sense. He could also have a hand like Ts9s, JsTs or something where he has reasonable amounts of fold equity and wants to fold on a pretty decent barrel card. Because of his tendency to pot control combined with the nature of this turn card being the best bluff card in the deck, I think that if he did turn top pair, he would use it as a bluff catcher more often than not. That means that he's probably checkraising the turn with made hands and weaker flush draws, like the ones described earler.

The river is the spot where we should have reads, because if we know he's good, he can easily turn AQ with As into a bluff and balance with straight flushes and As2s - and we have to fold quite a bit. This is an advanced play, and because this is 1/2, I doubt that's going to happen.

Summa sum arum, fold. He's more likely to have one of the two nuts, than he is a pretty advanced bluff.
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Old 04-30-2010, 06:30 AM   #42
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Dire part of the reason we think he never plays smaller flushes this way is because the next highest flush you beat is T7ss which he almost never gets to the river and plays this way. Although unlikely, if we have the nut flush it is possible that villain might c/r K high flush for value. I know it doesn't make a lot of sense; but there's a higher probability that villain is looking more at the absolute value of king high flush in this spot than T7ss and therefore c/r.

It's because we have the Ks that his range is so polarized. With the Ahigh flush it's a call (for me at least) because I tell myself that KsXs is in his range, even though he's much more likely to lead river with king high flush.

Pretty sure there's a big logic gap somewhere in this post; but I'm not folding the ace high flush here.
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Old 04-30-2010, 06:32 AM   #43
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

The only reason to fold an A high flush is, imo, that he no longer has the As in his hand to bluff with.
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Old 04-30-2010, 06:45 AM   #44
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

Anyway fold here is the best choice. Ax of spades and T9 of spades are reasonably in this calling standard raise preflop to defend the SB. I have a doubt, maybe the hero bet on the river (about 91 of 155 pot) could not be interpretated as a flush bet. Villain can represent here the flush with a bluff raise allin!!!
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Old 04-30-2010, 06:50 AM   #45
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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Originally Posted by ooohjoy View Post
The only reason to fold an A high flush is, imo, that he no longer has the As in his hand to bluff with.
...but in this hand you're saying he never bluffs with the As even when he not only can have it, but almost certainly does have it. Seeing the problem?
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Old 04-30-2010, 07:00 AM   #46
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

How can you fold this? The only hand he can realistically have that beats you is A2ss, even then he does not necessarily c/r turn with it.
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Old 04-30-2010, 07:31 AM   #47
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

That's the issue thing I have too, can't see him playing Ts9s/AsXs like. His turn c/r is bad against our range on this board. If we 3-bet there this deep on the turn it's such a sick spot for him with those hands because our range still has AJ+/QQ/AA in it.
And I don't understand why he didn't c/r the flop instead of the turn if he wants to semibluff this. If he has AsXs the turn A is a reason not to c/r.
But then again I can't see any valuehands doing this and I can't believe this is a stonecold bluff.
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Old 04-30-2010, 08:13 AM   #48
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

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...but in this hand you're saying he never bluffs with the As even when he not only can have it, but almost certainly does have it. Seeing the problem?
Yes; but with the given read (villain likes to pot control, 17% river aggression) this villain isn't likely to make a huge river bluff, especially with two pair (AsQx); but when we have the ace high flush he could value raise the river with a king high flush. At least I think so...
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Old 04-30-2010, 08:20 AM   #49
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

im folding this pretty fast...
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Old 04-30-2010, 08:20 AM   #50
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Re: 1/2: 300bbs, hand has been in my head all month

his timing on the river is easily one of the best indicators of what he has here (since you have almost no reads).

fwiw im folding because i think hes more likely to c/c flop and c/r the turn with Axss or T9ss than to c/shove the river with Asxd or T7ss.

Last edited by monarco; 04-30-2010 at 08:24 AM. Reason: folding + reason
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