Villain is 24/16/3 40% WWSF, 17% riv agg frequency. Notes dont have much about bluffing, have seen him pot control and try to showdown plenty of times but the situations werent this deep and not that relevant. I expect him to think that my range can be quite wide here as ive been fairly active. Even though he has less combos of Axss than I can count on one hand, do I pitch this? I imagine he wouldnt c/r T9ss on the turn and his small turn c/r followed by the massive river go for gold bet is what confuses me. Thoughts?

UTG: $175.10
CO: $400.05
Hero (BTN): $643.25
SB: $546.85
BB: $236.90

Pre Flop: ($4.50) Hero is BTN with 6 K
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($15.50) 2 Q 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

Turn: ($35.50) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, SB raises to $60, Hero calls $34

River: ($155.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $91, SB raises to $470.55 all in, Hero requests TIME....

Sheesh really strange line by him. The check raise on the turn is so small it really looks like hes raising for value already. That being said I don't know why he ever takes this line on the river with the nuts. Tuff hand, I probably never get away from this at the time especially against a laggy player in a btn vs sb situation heads up. I guess he could have As2s. Meh, call, puke.

Villans raise here is kind of sexy imo.

Probably a fld. People don't shove $470 to win $240. His timing is weird with AXss, just because he should have thought about it on the turn. Then he doesn't think about it on the river and goes for the c/ship.

Meh, I'm still under the impression that people don't bluff shove this deep often enough.

this is gross. if no real dynamic between u 2 and he's not real bluffy i wouuld fold here. it's tough tho.

I guess this is why i haven't graduated from 200nl yet

Ax spades seems pretty likely here. I guess his play would also be consistent with 910s. Pretty ballsy check on the river if he had you beat, since he should expect you to check back anything of value and only bet air or your exact hand.

I folded His line is horrible for value but he was so nonaggressive I simply didnt expect him to bluff here since I could easily have any flush + the Axs for nuts. Basically the only chance I saw where I was winning is if he c/r w/ the Asxr for the omaha style bluff but then the only hand he c/r for value on the turn then is something like AQ. And if was that strong I think he'd go for a bluff catch instead of a crazy bluff. Anyway, fun hand, wish I called just to know!

I woulda called. Btw, this raise was not THAT big of an overbet. Average raise is maybe about 3x the bet. He raised about 5x what you bet. Literally the 2nd nuts, I think you made a bad fold.

Btw, I just thought of something. Everyone who says fold, you are the biggest NIT in the world! THat is true and you can't argue against it, because there is literally nothing nittier than folding 2nd nuts. Just a funny thought I had.

3rd nuts broh

Right, 910 of spades would be the nuts. Still, I say call. I mean, sure Ace 2 of spades fits his line perfectly. But its possible he's playing a set like this (not likely but possible). And it's also perfectly possible he has a lower flush (any flush will almost certainly raise this river), although IDK if a small flush draw check raises the turn.

No set ever c/c the flop this deep.

No, and No. That's the worst analysis I've ever seen. Just because you were wrong doesn't mean you have to make up ****ty scenarios where somehow you're not completely off. Never has worse for value, doesn't bluff.

Is this one of the new stars deep tables, or just work itself deep? Closer if the former, but still a fold either way.

In the second case, it's a snap fold from villain as described.

And it's a muddly kind of 3rd nuts too... there are so many Axs...

I'd call pretty fast, I have no idea why he'd cr AXss or 9Tss on the turn and reopen the betting. Hard to put him on a bluff but combine the fact that I don't think the NFD is played that way and I think it's possible he turns a weaker flush into a CR on the turn (his sizing is bad for that but it's a fine play) and I'm calling.

good fold

Problem is unless you've seen him c/r bluff the river he probably has even less combos of bluffs in this spot. Pretty sick line for the villain; but I'm pretty sure it's a fold.

His turn/river line doesn't look good with As2s-AsTs, it just doesn't add up for me.
Such a sick spot though.

I call, because im confused.

If villain would have made the nutflush I'm sure he's frontbetting it on the river for value. Your call on the turn doesn't look to strong either so villain must know you have a holding that can't stand much heat up to this point and is very likely to check behind the river.
Why would you checkraise the turn so small with a flush and when you make it check the river?

I would call of his bluff. I expect to see QxAs here alot as well. Makes an ideal spot for him since you'll have a hard time calling this deep.

Because people play poorly deep. This is the only way he gets all the money in. When you have the the nuts/2nd nuts and there's 2 BI + some change left on the river, you have to c/r to get it all in. If someone is calling with KXss because this doesn't make sense, clearly it's the best play. I wouldn't be surprised to see T9ss here or AXss. Both those hands are way more likely than random air.

If there are 100bb stacks this is true because his river bet is likely a shove. 300bbs deep, not so much, especially if hero is going to fold everything except smaller flushes to a lead and bet all flushes when checked to.

Just did a very quick stove range, I left out some of the baby ace nut flushes, though I obviously left A2ss in there, and I also put every possible two pair combination that had just the ace of spades even though I'm sure he's not check/shoving the bare ace of spades with two pair nearly that often.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12 games 0.005 secs 2,400 games/sec

Board: 2h Qs 8s Ac Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.333% 58.33% 00.00% 7 0.00 { Ks6s }
Hand 1: 41.667% 41.67% 00.00% 5 0.00 { AsKs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As2s, Ts9s, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, As8c, As8d, As2c, As2d, As2h }

If you take out half of the As bluffs with the two pair hands it looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10 games 0.005 secs 2,000 games/sec

Board: 2h Qs 8s Ac Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 5 0.00 { Ks6s }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 5 0.00 { AsTs, As9s, As7s, As2s, Ts9s, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, As8c, As2c }

Pretty sick right?

yodachoda keep giving that expert advice...whens your book coming out???

As regards to the hand, i dont think they are ever shipping worse here, he has nut straight flush or ace high flush and wants your stack imo and you've shown constant strength barreling all streets. and i think its more likely Asxs than the nut straight flush since obv theres more combos of Asxs than 10s9s, lol. Good fold.

I'm not confused - he has exactly As2s.

I would call.. very quickly. This just looks so much like a really misguided and frustrated AsQ.