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Small Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 1/2 and below pot-limit Omaha poker

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Old 03-14-2019, 04:30 PM   #1
bjoobs
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what to do on this flop vs short stack

watching a dubious 'training video' where some guy has some good advice about being tight etc but in the video this hand occurred:

QJT9 in mp. we are 100bb deep, CO is 200bb deep and sb is 40bb effective.

UTG folds, we raise it up 3x, CO calls, sb raises to 13x, we call, CO calls.

POT 38bb
Flop

5J3

sb jams for his remaining 32bb, and we are advised to fold 'because we only have 1 pair and he has AA and the CO could rejam on us.'



i mean... is this crazy? seems ultra tight to me but maybe i'm too loose? we flopped top pair and backdoors against a short stack and a CO who just called so probably has not too much except draws unless he flopped a set/2pr.

am i wrong? i would be at least calling this punt in from the sb. the guy folded and CO folded and he pats himself on the back for a great fold. seems incredibly weak to call a 3b in position and then fold when you catch the flop and the equity 'because he's got AA'.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
4,169,700 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5J3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsJsTc9c36.52% 1,518,9507,581
AA63.48% 2,643,1697,581

32bb to win 102.5bb = 31% needed ?
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:29 PM   #2
PokerPlayingGamble
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

We would have a break even call heads up, but the possibility of getting raised by the third player means we must fold. This is the concept of "effective odds".
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:49 PM   #3
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

raised by what though? board is pretty dry and he was passive pre, so do we not weight probability to the fact that he probably won't raise and at the very most will call, making pot odds even greater?

after seeing the action he's not going to jam 1pair hands so he's either had to have flopped a set or 2pair and we have a blocker. his back door flush outs can't be relied on so can't see him jamming on us unless he's flopped the set?

Last edited by bjoobs; 03-14-2019 at 05:55 PM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:48 PM   #4
BDHarrison
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Do the math for this scenario. CO plays jam or fold with a range that forces you to fold on the flop. What percentage of the time does he have to jam for calling to be -EV?
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:02 PM   #5
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

I'm not folding.
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Old 03-15-2019, 02:44 AM   #6
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

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Originally Posted by BDHarrison View Post
Do the math for this scenario. CO plays jam or fold with a range that forces you to fold on the flop. What percentage of the time does he have to jam for calling to be -EV?
i disagree that CO plays jam or fold. again, we're completely disregarding his potential range and play up to this point if we think that. i think the most likely scenario is he comes along with a call from us because he thinks he's getting odds on a call, with something like a 1 pair hand or a gutshot.

-board is dry
-what hands that connect with this flop is he even going to jam? two pair, sets or massive straight draws, which are a small part of his potential range.

i don't think him jamming is a reality very often at all given he's just seen big action from the other two players meaning he needs 2pr + to even consider it.
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Old 03-15-2019, 03:29 AM   #7
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

correct me if im wrong, but i think we dont want to just call here. if we want to continue i think it would be best to jam on flop to get CO out of the pot. we have equity vs sb and correct odds to draw against him. if we just call here and co calls aswell, he has some equity also and we have ****ty spr on turn and we dont want to fold on turn. and what an disaster it will be if we call and co pots it behind on flop... if hero had 2 bdfds i think it would most definitely be a jam on flop. but this might be close. i would jam on flop or fold depending on what reads i have on co, but calling sucks imo.
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Old 03-15-2019, 03:48 AM   #8
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

i thought about over jamming last night when i posted the hand but it seemed when running the ranges and the total size of the pot given a jam and a call we would be losing quite a lot of money long term.

given the action and board he's only calling with sets or maybe 2pr....if he has a set we're crushed equity-wise.

again, we all seem to be concerned the up-to-now passive CO is going to over jam but are ignoring the dry board and the fact that everyone else is showing strength meaning he has to have an unlikely monster to be getting it in....like 2pr or set + wrap. i just don't think it's a likely play at all. J53 rainbow is about as safe as this board could get. if it comes 689 two tone then it's different but i don't think this board means CO is jamming most of the time.

i think the play here is call, CO probably folds, but if he comes along we reevaluate on the turn, if in the very unlikely situation he jams we have to fold.

Last edited by bjoobs; 03-15-2019 at 03:55 AM. Reason: typos, always
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Old 03-15-2019, 04:19 AM   #9
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

i made a mistake on sb he has 45bb not 40bb.
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Old 03-15-2019, 04:23 AM   #10
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

I'm not saying he will jam or fold. That's a very simplified case meant to be useful in looking at the bigger picture. My point is that you seem to be treating the threat of a rejam as practically zero, so you think you can ignore it. If you fold to his shove, then he probably only has to shove around 20% of the time for your call to be -EV. (I think it's around that. I'm not going to bother doing more than a rough estimate.). That's low enough to where we should treat the solution as non-obvious.

This is an easy call if there is no player behind. That third player, however, complicates things enough so that a true student of the game will work through the math at least once to understand situations like this.
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Old 03-15-2019, 04:30 AM   #11
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

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Originally Posted by BDHarrison View Post
I'm not saying he will jam or fold. That's a very simplified case meant to be useful in looking at the bigger picture. My point is that you seem to be treating the threat of a rejam as practically zero, so you think you can ignore it. If you fold to his shove, then he probably only has to shove around 20% of the time for your call to be -EV. (I think it's around that. I'm not going to bother doing more than a rough estimate.). That's low enough to where we should treat the solution as non-obvious.

This is an easy call if there is no player behind. That third player, however, complicates things enough so that a true student of the game will work through the math at least once to understand situations like this.
we have to take board texture into account. given he's seen this massive action and has been passive up to now, he only has a few hands that smash this flop enough to rejam on us. i don't think he's jamming enough to make a call here unprofitable. it's an interesting spot though for sure.

i just don't see how the board can be safer than what it is. he has to have basically pairs+wraps to jam which is a tiny part of his calling range.

all the 6789, 678T, 4589, A789 type hands are in there at this level and he's not taking them to war on these boards. and if he has those he will know his backdoor flushes have a chance of being dud and his 2pr hands are likely to be outdrawn vs 8 cards.

if we overjam we're only getting called when we have poor equity and if we call i think he's only jamming a small percentage of the time, but is mostly folding and sometimes peeling one off.

my 2
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:42 AM   #12
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Lol. Folding here is lighting money on fire. Who cares if he has AA. We are getting more than enough equity to jam it in here. And the chance CO raises behind is LOL-low. Just ship and pray to hit a 2 pair out. Pretty simple spot.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:37 AM   #13
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

^ i agree but what's the point in shipping? he's only gonna call if we're crushed which doesn't give us odds to get called by him. i definitely think folding is terrible though, as soon as i saw the hand i thought 'wtf'.

i had to post here as i'm new to the game and am not sure if i just think i know more than i do in some spots.

glad to have it confirmed that folding here is rubbish.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:23 AM   #14
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

I assume jamming here is to clean up outs (AJxx) and fold QQ/KK that may try to isolate against your flat. I'd certainly jam over flat for that reason but idk if it's right
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Old 03-16-2019, 04:41 PM   #15
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjoobs View Post
if we overjam we're only getting called when we have poor equity and if we call i think he's only jamming a small percentage of the time, but is mostly folding and sometimes peeling one off.
Give me an actual number instead of "small".
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Old 03-16-2019, 04:44 PM   #16
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

like hardly ever. put whatever number you want on that.
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Old 03-16-2019, 09:03 PM   #17
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

I would normally jam here, but after reading this thread I realize I am probably playing these spots incorrectly.

If we are heads-up, calling is +5bb, therefor correct.

As we have the CO behind us, if we get raised and we assume he only raises with sets, then we fold losing our 32bb call. If he just calls with a hand like J[A-T][A-T]xss, our equity is now only +2.5bb (1.5 after rake at PLO10).

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 5J3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsJsTc9c25.74% 143,68021,498
AA43.96% 261,4324,650
J:$B$B$ss30.30% 169,47724,709

Is the CO loose-passive or tight-passive? Your margins are very thin if he calls preflop raises with little pairs. If he's tight, he's almost never showing up with 55 or 33 in this situation but will show up with J[A-T][A-T]xss or better.

If we call, then CO is getting a good price to call.
If we jam, we win small when CO folds and we lose big when CO has a set or 2-pair with a jack like J[5 or 3][A-T][A-T]ss.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 5J3
dead cards: AA
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsJsTc9c36.07% 200,21632,460
J[5,3]:$B$B$ss63.93% 367,32432,460

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 5J3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsJsTc9c27.45% 157,07215,317
AA31.89% 189,3813,891
J[5,3]:$B$B$ss40.66% 235,15917,604

If you jam and he calls with J[5 or 3][A-T][A-T]ss, you are -10bb. Against a set you are -47bb.

Since these scenarios don't happen often, most of the time you're OK. But when they do, you lose big. Add in the rake at PLO10, you're overall EV is probably 0 or worse.

If my EV is 0, I fold, no point in increasing my variance.
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Old 03-17-2019, 09:10 AM   #18
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike2.0 View Post
If my EV is 0, I fold, no point in increasing my variance.
Variance is good for the game.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:43 PM   #19
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaDonk View Post
Variance is good for the game.
Playing a low variance style is good for your bankroll.
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Old 03-17-2019, 04:52 PM   #20
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

Villain behind is absolutely jamming more than just sets. Any wrap and 2pair should be getting it in, and right there is enough reason for us not to ever call/fold let alone if villain shoves 46 combo draws, even just gutshot combos, and hands like ours. If villain is bad there should be some naked KK and QQ in there as well, villain has to be insanely horrible (like shoving TT) for action behind to actually improve our EV from what it would be HU. So given our EV is 5 BB HU, question is just whether or not villain's existence plus rake will drop it below 0. I think it is pretty close.

Its a pure math spot, but the math is a bit complicated even though its a shallow pot since you have to get a good estimate of CO villain's preflop range and what they do with it. We shouldn't be too afraid of sets due to the jack blocker and fact that 55 and 33 won't fit a normal CO flatting range too often. So if I had to pick, I would pick jam (again call/folding sucks, and we don't want to call/call since it creates the illusion of fold equity), but there's nothing really wrong with the trainer's thought process here. Automatic HU calls don't work when there's a player behind.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:39 AM   #21
bjoobs
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

^ and therein lies the problem, with assigning 'ranges'. these are the micros, people are absolutely flatting any pair from any position. CO could literally have any 4 here. probably should have mentioned it was PLO2. makes a difference imo.
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Old 03-18-2019, 09:50 AM   #22
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

In a live game, this is where you look to your left and see if you can notice a tell.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:55 PM   #23
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Re: what to do on this flop vs short stack

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Originally Posted by bjoobs View Post
^ and therein lies the problem, with assigning 'ranges'. these are the micros, people are absolutely flatting any pair from any position. CO could literally have any 4 here. probably should have mentioned it was PLO2. makes a difference imo.
It does make a difference and probably makes it a fold. More 2pair, set, and wrap combos and less folds with QQ+ and Jx to our shove.

Still just a close mathy spot. We shouldn't be posting too hard about a hand where the EV is maybe 1 or 2 bbs above or below 0. You can mess around with PPT using different ranges and do EV problems if you really need an exact picture.
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