I would normally jam here, but after reading this thread I realize I am probably playing these spots incorrectly.
If we are heads-up, calling is +5bb, therefor correct.
As we have the CO behind us, if we get raised and we assume he only raises with sets, then we fold losing our 32bb call. If he just calls with a hand like J[A-T][A-T]xss, our equity is now only +2.5bb (1.5 after rake at PLO10).
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
QsJsTc9c | 25.74% | 143,680 | 21,498 |
AA | 43.96% | 261,432 | 4,650 |
J:$B$B$ss | 30.30% | 169,477 | 24,709 |
Is the CO loose-passive or tight-passive? Your margins are very thin if he calls preflop raises with little pairs. If he's tight, he's almost never showing up with 55 or 33 in this situation but will show up with J[A-T][A-T]xss or better.
If we call, then CO is getting a good price to call.
If we jam, we win small when CO folds and we lose big when CO has a set or 2-pair with a jack like J[5 or 3][A-T][A-T]ss.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
QsJsTc9c | 36.07% | 200,216 | 32,460 |
J[5,3]:$B$B$ss | 63.93% | 367,324 | 32,460 |
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
QsJsTc9c | 27.45% | 157,072 | 15,317 |
AA | 31.89% | 189,381 | 3,891 |
J[5,3]:$B$B$ss | 40.66% | 235,159 | 17,604 |
If you jam and he calls with J[5 or 3][A-T][A-T]ss, you are -10bb. Against a set you are -47bb.
Since these scenarios don't happen often, most of the time you're OK. But when they do, you lose big. Add in the rake at PLO10, you're overall EV is probably 0 or worse.
If my EV is 0, I fold, no point in increasing my variance.