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Variance Q (any experts here?)

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05-28-2013 , 02:08 AM

CoolTimer

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,029

I'd like to predict what can happen to me in a given month but I don't know how.

Let's say I have a SD of 150, a winrate of 2bb and will play 50k hands a month. What results can I expect with a 95 or 98% certainty?

How does this change with a SD of 130, winrate of 4bb and 30k hands for example.

What's the methodology for calculating this?

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05-28-2013 , 02:25 AM

Aneurysm

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 103

I have no idea, but I would love to see this answered. I look forward to one of the Stats wizzes answering this for us.

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05-28-2013 , 02:28 AM

napsus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 9,540

in b4 eskimo and "you aint playin plo if you dont run 50bi below ev once a fortnight"

....let's wait for c00n74 to pick this up, he's our resident math genius.

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05-28-2013 , 02:39 AM

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

you aint playin plo if you dont run 50bi below ev once a fortnight

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05-28-2013 , 02:42 AM

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

also, the simulator was here: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/, but i think it has been down for a while. perhaps someone will have their own version to help you out.

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05-28-2013 , 02:49 AM

SeaKing

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 5,387

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolTimer

Let's say I have a SD of 150, a winrate of 2bb and will play 50k hands a month. What results can I expect with a 95 or 98% certainty?

How does this change with a SD of 130, winrate of 4bb and 30k hands for example.

What's the methodology for calculating this?

Not very good results ;(

Increase dat win rate brah

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05-28-2013 , 02:54 AM

CoolTimer

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,029

Purely hypothetical ofc. Didn't wanna start bragging right off the bat.

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05-28-2013 , 07:15 AM

lIka

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 265

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

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05-28-2013 , 07:38 AM

Oink

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,308

# hands = 50k
Std dev = 150
WR = 2bb/100

90% interval = [-9.03 - 11.03] bb/100 or [-45.15 - 55.15] Buy ins
95% interval = [-11.15 - 13.15] bb/100 or [-55.75 - 65.75] Buy ins
99% interval = [-15.28 - 17.28] bb/100 or [-76.4 - 86.4] Buy ins

If you want to check results for say a 5bb/100 wr, you just add 3bb/100 in the bb/100 intervals. Eg the 90% interval for a 5bb/100 winner is [-6.03 - 14.03]

Last edited by Oink; 05-28-2013 at 07:45 AM.

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05-28-2013 , 07:44 AM

#10

Oink

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,308

The methology is simple btw, these things are easily calculated in an excel sheet by simple formulas.

Google "Confidence Interval" and "Normal Distribution". If you have completed high school (and paid attention in math) its no biggie.

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05-28-2013 , 11:28 AM

#11

bartolomeus

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 3,220

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

you aint playin plo if you dont run 50bi below ev once a fortnight

thats what i was going to say !
thief

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05-29-2013 , 12:39 PM

#12

CoolTimer

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,029

Thx!

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09-30-2020 , 06:14 PM

#13

liming1237

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2020 Posts: 82

Dear friends, who has ev++ Variance Simulator software? This is very useful. evplusplus cannot be opened and cannot be downloaded. Please send it to me or send it to me separately.

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10-03-2020 , 02:13 PM

#14

crack_david

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 160

Quote:

Originally Posted by liming1237

Dear friends, who has ev++ Variance Simulator software? This is very useful. evplusplus cannot be opened and cannot be downloaded. Please send it to me or send it to me separately.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6oy...NrWkhETVk/edit

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10-05-2020 , 03:57 AM

#15

liming1237

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2020 Posts: 82

Quote:

Originally Posted by crack_david

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6oy...NrWkhETVk/edit

The function of each version is different, I am looking for version 1.2, version 1.3 and version 1.4, which is developed by Neko. His website evplusplus is closed. Let’s find it together.

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10-07-2020 , 04:29 AM

#16

any four cards

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 513

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

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10-07-2020 , 09:42 AM

#17

btcwinner88

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 212

use primedope.com variance calculator

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10-08-2020 , 06:11 AM

#18

liming1237

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2020 Posts: 82

Quote:

Originally Posted by crack_david

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6oy...NrWkhETVk/edit

Neko is the developer of evplusplus. His email address is reset. I want a Thaksin, but I don’t know how to contact him. Please help me to contact him and see his code to quickly understand his software functions.

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