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Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Is This Variance or Proven Winning?

07-24-2018 , 09:07 PM
Totally sucks, especially when playing under stress (serious parental health issues). Never should have played today.
Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Quote
07-24-2018 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokersam12
Totally sucks, especially when playing under stress (serious parental health issues). Never should have played today.
Oh no, what happened?
Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Quote
07-25-2018 , 08:08 AM
lost $140 out of $332 Omaha profit.
Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Quote
07-25-2018 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
So then, the point of this hand is just that you wouldn't stack off with a non-nut flush right? (That's good!) How would you play it in his shoes?
You're not stacking off here with a flopped flush and a SPR of just above 1?
Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Quote
07-25-2018 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokersam12
lost $140 out of $332 Omaha profit.
Not the end of the world, but a good lesson about playing when you are in a positive frame of mind.

You're still rolled to play $5 tables and mix in a $10 if the game is really good, just don't go nuts and stay at the 20s, focus more of your play at the 5s.

Lift your head up, happens to all of us from time to time.
Is This Variance or Proven Winning? Quote
07-25-2018 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherlockyyyy
You're not stacking off here with a flopped flush and a SPR of just above 1?
You're correct. Sorry, I didn't see the preflop pot size of $7 or something.

In the bigger picture, I'm trying to encourage OP to think less in terms of interpreting small samples of results and more in terms of where his edge should be coming from. A hand where, as you say, both players are usually putting the money in anyway is not where the edge comes from.

More generally I understand him to be using this as an example of the fact that he wouldn't stack off as easily with non-nut flushes. That's the part that's good. But as you say, this hand in isolation doesn't show much (except I'd probably just flat call the flop with a non-nut flush in case I can induce some crazy bluff to keep bluffing.) I assume he's playing T987ss so preflop hand selection also doesn't create an edge in this hand.

In general, when I have trouble finding examples of where my edge comes from, I take that as evidence I need to work harder to learn more and better understand those edges.

pokersam12: My advice would be to take a break from thinking so much about short-term results and instead to spend some more time about where your [presumed or hoped-for] edge comes from.


Again, apologies for misinterpreting the hand history.
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07-25-2018 , 08:55 PM
AKQJ10, DingusEgg, thank you for your advice. I appreciate it.

I was completely irresponsible yesterday, most of the money lost was at $50 buy in. I thought I could take a shot and it did not work out. Today I multi-tabled $10s and doubled my stack on each table. Hit nut flushes, full houses, top straights...if this had happened on the $50s I would be up $200. That said, I am no longer going to play above my limit to catch some luck. Time to build the winnings back up. I do very well in tournaments so maybe I should hit some of those - just dislike the long timeframes.
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07-27-2018 , 12:04 AM
P.m. me you email
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07-29-2018 , 05:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
You only need 300 or so hands per session to know if you're a God amongst men at poker tbh. Just look at zoja.

Seriously though, come back when you've played 100k hands... Then you'll get told to play another 100k and then maybe you'll know if you're a winner.
Epic reply!!! funny but true Thumbs up!
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