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Trouble with Aces Trouble with Aces

01-26-2019 , 04:51 PM
Hands have been playing out like this. I get AA single suited with some mediocre side cards or ones that don't hit the flop anyway.

This is at 1/2 PL

MP raises to $7
Hero in CO raises to $21
MP calls

Flop J62 rainbow

MP Checks
Hero bets $30
MP raises to $100 (essentially going all in)

Just fold in these spots?

It's easier when there are two high cards, I either check them or I can pot it and he will have trouble calling without two pair and I can safely fold with resistance. Or some players on a three card low flop that I know won't call with cards that fit that flop, it's an easy play. But with a random player, I often ended up seeing (MP wins $400 with two pair Jacks and Sixes) or (MP wins $400 with three of a kind, Jacks).

What to do in these spots?
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-26-2019 , 06:24 PM
its a pretty obvious call, u are getting 70:100+30+42 = 70:172 = 2.5:1 so u only need 100 / 3.5 = 28.57% equity. also given the board villain could choose to slow play a set.
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-26-2019 , 06:25 PM
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: js6d2c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA 45.07% 269,153 2,542
J, JJ, 66, 22, J6 54.93% 328,305 2,542
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-26-2019 , 06:29 PM
Also 66 and 22 are fairly unlikely although possible. JJ will not be too uncommon but villain could also show up with KK, and especially Jxxx or 7654 (pair and gutty).
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01-27-2019 , 02:18 AM
I guess just a bad run then. These swings are pretty yucky just like you guys said. I assume with to high cards like KJ2 it would be a fold?
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01-27-2019 , 05:44 PM
Two additional things to consider in these situations:

You don't need to 3bet every AA combo preflop. In fact, you probably shouldn't.

Betting small in 3bet pots on dry flops lets you deny equity cheaply and keep yourself from guessing/flipping wildly in overinflated pots. And when you actually flopped well, it can induce action.
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-28-2019 , 07:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: js6d2c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA 45.07% 269,153 2,542
J, JJ, 66, 22, J6 54.93% 328,305 2,542
what even is this? It doesn't tell us anything. Lots of Jxxx is just flatting. And not all them hands are played pre-flop in the same frequency either.

We're mostly up against J6. But yeah you got to the right conclusion anyway that mostly it's a call. vs full-stacked villain or much more than 100 then you should def. be folding here.

Also side-cards are relevant - hitting a pair makes it less likely our opponent has 2 pair/set
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-28-2019 , 08:38 AM
with that SPR it's a stack off vs random Jx (which are dominant in his range with the board given)
yes, sometimes you will see awful stuff like 6542, J976, 6654, A223 or any other crappier hand - but that's PLO, mate
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-28-2019 , 10:01 PM
Easy call.
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01-29-2019 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveduFresne
This is at 1/2 PL

MP raises to $7
Hero in CO raises to $21
Why? (I'll assume you have $200.)
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-29-2019 , 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_spike
Why? (I'll assume you have $200.)
Because he has aces against a short stack opponent in position? This is 100% 3b regardless of opponent stack size
Trouble with Aces Quote
01-29-2019 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic
what even is this? It doesn't tell us anything. Lots of Jxxx is just flatting. And not all them hands are played pre-flop in the same frequency either.

We're mostly up against J6. But yeah you got to the right conclusion anyway that mostly it's a call. vs full-stacked villain or much more than 100 then you should def. be folding here.

Also side-cards are relevant - hitting a pair makes it less likely our opponent has 2 pair/set
I think it tells a lot as a rudimentary analysis of the situation. Lots of sets are just flatting too, and cumulatively JJ 66 22 J6 J2 62 combos are probably played pre with far less frequency than the range of Jxxx hands.
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01-29-2019 , 05:08 PM
I think a better question about this hand is at what stack depth is this no longer a trivial bet/stackoff
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01-31-2019 , 04:34 PM
I don't understand how people expect hand analysis when they only post half of their hand. Do you just post one of your two cards when you ask for hold em hand analysis too? #allcardsmatter
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02-01-2019 , 08:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VerdantDevil
I don't understand how people expect hand analysis when they only post half of their hand. Do you just post one of your two cards when you ask for hold em hand analysis too? #allcardsmatter
Yeah, even backdoors straights matter:

board: Js6d2c
AsAh9d3h 42.12%
J*, JJ, J6, 66 57.88%

board: Js6d2c
AsAh8h7h 44.45%
J*, JJ, J6, 66 55.55%

That 2% could in some cases be the difference maker
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-05-2019 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin2Win
I think a better question about this hand is at what stack depth is this no longer a trivial bet/stackoff
This.
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-06-2019 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin2Win
This is 100% 3b regardless of opponent stack size
Nonsense. Besides, I was asking him, not you.
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-07-2019 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_spike
Nonsense. Besides, I was asking him, not you.


Except for going for a back raise in a 3b heavy game, why wouldn’t you want to 3b medium strength aces in position? Slam dunk 3b at this stack depth
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-07-2019 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin2Win
Except for going for a back raise in a 3b heavy game, why wouldn’t you want to 3b medium strength aces in position? Slam dunk 3b at this stack depth
For one glaringly obvious reason, we don't have the slightest idea what the stack sizes are in this hand.

But back to my original post, I'm asking the OP to think about the question, not answer it for him.
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-07-2019 , 05:24 PM
We do know stack sizes. A raise to 100 put opponent effectively all in on flop therefore we're around 65bb deep.

Also I contend that with this hand and the preflop positions/action, this hand is always a 3bet, regardless of how much behind in stacks.
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-08-2019 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin2Win
We do know stack sizes. A raise to 100 put opponent effectively all in on flop therefore we're around 65bb deep.
No we don't. There are 3 other players in the hand and we have no idea what their stack sizes are. In fact this was a pretty crappy hand history by the OP, other than he wanted some extremely generic advice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin2Win
Also I contend that with this hand and the preflop positions/action, this hand is always a 3bet, regardless of how much behind in stacks.
Silly.
Trouble with Aces Quote
02-09-2019 , 10:50 AM
Side cards are important because we may/may not be blocking str8 draws. V can have a few combo draws in his range as well. In these spots where betting would create a low SPR for V I would never bet fold flop.
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