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Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live) Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live)

09-21-2018 , 02:19 PM
2-2 PLO, 100-500 buyin. The game is playing extremely loose, usually 7+ ways to a flop if a single raise, some people that like to pop and repop preflop with random nonsense.

V1 is a whale, probably plays 70%/20%, not *that* crazy pre compared to other donks but is known to go nuts stacking off deep with very marginal hands post-flop. For example he got 900 in on 5-4-5-7 turn with KK52. Have also seen him jam the flop with a bare NFD for 3 raises or cold-call a raise on the flop (small pot) with a Broadway gutshot.

Hero's image is fairly tight pre but had my set outdrawn twice on the turn in big pots and unfortunately stacked off against the goods then whiffed the redraws... one of them was the aforementioned Broadway gutshot against V1 where the turn gave me a double set. Anyway, OTTH

V1 - EP - $1,500 (has huge swings but currently back in good shape)
V2 - CO - $300 - way too loose pre and raises small a lot. Calling station post-flop
Hero - BTN - $800 - in for 1500
V3 - sb $1,500 - good, aggressive player

V1 limps, two more limp in mp, co raises to $10, Hero calls with KQJT, both blinds, all 3 limpers and Button call. 7 ways to the flip

Flop - T84 ($70)

Hero has top pair, a gutshot, and backdoor straight draws

Checks to V1 who bets 70, folds to Hero who calls, V3 calls in sb.

Turn T48-Q ($280)

Hero has top 2-pair with the nut OESD.

V3 checks, V1 bets $280, Hero has 720 behind and ???

If V1 has TT I have 10 outs, J9 I have 11 outs, lower set 12 outs. If he has QQ or KJ9 we're in Frowntown. The good news is I block some piece of all of the hands that have me with less than 12 outs. The only value hands I beat are like AA, KKJ gone wild, T8, or 567 but it's not out of the question V1 would go for it with hands like that. If I just call, V3 might be trapping or call behind with a similar draw. Most of the hands that beat me now would probably still pay off a gin river for me because V1 hates folding. Nothing that beats me is folding to a shove but he *might* lay down worse 2-pair or a bare straight draw.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.
Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live) Quote
09-21-2018 , 03:28 PM
dont peel pot sized bets with gutties in 7 way pots imo
Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live) Quote
09-21-2018 , 04:37 PM
pre flop: 3b and try to play HU vs the CO
flop: just fold, i don't think you have enough equity or implied odds to call
turn: imo fold>call>raise because there is a very big chance V3 has the J9xx and V1 probably has our two pair beat
Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live) Quote
09-21-2018 , 06:16 PM
If you are going to call with this sort of hand on the flop, you should already know what you are going to do when V1 makes a likely bet on the turn and you hit a Q or J (or K or T).

You could be against a hand like QJT8. You could even be against a hand like KQ84 or Q876.

You should consider what hands V3 folds that you want him to fold if you raise the turn.
Top Two and open-ended on turn vs whale (2/2 live) Quote

      
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