Monker says fold flop..?? do you think its because SB 3B range has some combo of QJTx whether its AAQJ,AAQT,KKJT, etc. ???

villain stats
35/24/3.3 3B..
agg% F:33 T:36 R:43

reason i check back is i dont want to get x/r bluffed with naked As..i have no back up ( 2pr,set) and honestly thought checking would have higher EV because i have to fold vs x/r and given his range ( being OOP 3Bettor) hes can easily have a J high or Q high flush as well trying to pot control by x/calling.

I understand check on turn, but is your reason for checking river to avoid a x/r bluff or just the better flushes? Folding flop does seem nitty but I can see the logic, especially as you don’t end up value betting the flush.

yes.. i should of split it up when explaining..

i check back turn because i have no backup and would have to fold to x/r..

river i check back because his aggression level is somewhat high on river so i think hes capable of bluffing naked Ace and i dont want to value own myself just to be snapped off by Q hi or J hi flush. Plus i dont know what he could legit call with besides specifically KK,QQ..even then he might not.

Villain does have some QJT in his range, so any straight with a spade, perhaps. Wouldn’t he lead river a fair amount with Q high flushes too? Also you could just plan to bet/call. He’s not x/raising the 2nd or 3rd nuts, I don’t believe, and he has more naked As than nuts.

Well you are getting 2.5:1 when you are 4.5:1 against turning a flush, which if it is good you probably won't get any more action (see the hand as played) and if you get any more action you probably won't be any good.

SB three bets pretty liberally vs CO open, and has a heavy bias towards double suited hands.

ya easy flop fold, barring runner/runner boards where we make the nut straight we basically got the best possible turn/river runout we can ask for and we still don't even want to see 1 more bet go in

Bet the riv

Grunching.

Hyper-grunching, actually: before I scrolled far enough to see your Monker report I was thinking "fold flop". OTF, all we have is a flush draw of dubious ranking. BDSFD too I guess but that rarely compels us.

But as-played I really think you're missing a thin value bet OTR. If we don't bet here, there are other important bets we're "not allowed" to make, imo. WRT getting raised or value-cutting: I think you're worrying too specifically about a pretty narrow slice of villain's range.

interesting that we should fold flop. I assume it is because villain's betting range should contain higher flush draws which crush ours? If he is betting hands like the one he had here, we should be calling?

Even though monker folds flop, many opponents will chet this flop too much, making calling this flop a little more feasible. Even with backdoor hearts, it is a bit of a reverse implied hand, as we willl end up having to bluff catch with hands like 2p. Lack of q or j blocker to nut straight is also unappealing.

As played, think we can mix between betting or checking turn. Prefer betting in a vacuum. And bet river as played.

I doubt villain's flop bet is out of line. IIRC, having a second pair in our hand often compels us to bet because denying equity is so valuable with so few ways to improve on future streets (only set outs, really). They also have a spade blocker and a BDNFD, not to mention the best hand pretty often and KK in their range and so on.

There just isn't a ton of merit to drawing with our combo. Our suitedness isn't really the primary way we win pots with this kind of combo (we like our connectedness and middle board coverage; the suits are sort of just backup), and that's basically all we have on this flop. We largely whiffed and villain should be ahead or way ahead really often.

this is gold..literally makes perfect sense to me.

Important to note that the solver folds our hand even expecting the 3bettor to cbet almost 80%, so even if our opponent cbets too much, it's not actually by that much.