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Str8 vs. river flush card Str8 vs. river flush card

05-08-2017 , 12:22 PM
Villain over 705 hands: VPIP 37 PFR 27 AFq 47 WTS 19%. -1400BB (!)

Wondering about best play on river: shove, check-call, check-fold?

$0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players

BTN: 151.82 BB (VPIP: 37.68, PFR: 27.74, 3Bet Preflop: 7.49, Hands: 495)
SB: 101.84 BB (VPIP: 48.15, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 85)
BB: 236.54 BB (VPIP: 29.12, PFR: 18.39, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 269)
UTG: 88.2 BB (VPIP: 24.53, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.41, Hands: 162)
Hero (CO): 152.18 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 5 7 T

fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 4 6 3
Hero bets 5.38 BB, BTN calls 5.38 BB

Turn: (19.26 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 16 BB, Hero raises to 66.3 BB, BTN calls 50.3 BB

River: (151.86 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero ?
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 12:33 PM
Check/something
Maybe fold pre
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 12:36 PM
I'm just returning to PLO after a couple of failed runs so take my comments with a grain of salt. Trying to jump in when I can to see if I can't make some progress.

Has the game changed these past years because this is a ragged hand that I probably chuck pre. With that said, I probably check/call the river. Him waking up on the turn smells like he improved somehow so I tend to dscount the flop FD. It's possible he picked up a double flush draw and decided to try to get as much in as possible to free-roll you, but I don't think I am going to put too much weight in that.

Tough spot and in full disclosure, my biggest weakness in this game is exactly these types of river decisions which is why I may be preaching such conservatism pre. Trying to avoid these types of spots by not getting involved with marginal holdings in the first place.

Of course I have only played about 30 hands of PLO in about 3 years
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 12:54 PM
i think i prefer betting or x/cing turn much better overall, and especially with this hand. if you x/r on the turn and get called you're in a pretty ugly spot on lots of rivers (any spade, club, q,6,4,3, even a 5) while being OOP. you didn't mention why you x/r'd the turn so i'm curious to hear your thoughts why

as mentioned, pre is also pretty close
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 01:13 PM
^was to slow for this but agree, no big fan of turnplay at this stacksize and your specific holding. i would also choose another size on the flop betsize, not because youīve the nuts because i would in generell choosing another size if iīm betting this kind of boards!

river is imo an sigh fold, going with reasonable ranges for villain, the call is already slightly -EV if he just vbets Qss+, incase he vbets wider (what he should do) the negative expectation gets even higher.

pre is bad vs loose, semi aggresive field behind.
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 01:58 PM
No fold equity with a shove?
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 02:10 PM
what hands which have you beat u think heīll fold?
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ancuti
what hands which have you beat u think heīll fold?
Small flush, same str8, bigger str8.
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 02:49 PM
optimistic thaughts when given him 4:1!
also if he really have 85 here its mostly with spades anyway, so shoving in a pretty flush heavy range while having the "feeled non flush nuts" donīt really sounds that appealing for me.
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-08-2017 , 11:57 PM
He has flushes sometimes.

He has sets sometimes that cant fold to the turn raise, especially when he also has clubs.

I doubt he has 57 ever because that prob just jams the turn.

58 is possible especially with spades or clubs.

Run some sims, simple math problem i think
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-09-2017 , 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joewatch54
No fold equity with a shove?
1/2 psb makes this a hail mary play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by this_passing
i think i prefer betting or x/cing turn much better overall, and especially with this hand. if you x/r on the turn and get called you're in a pretty ugly spot on lots of rivers (any spade, club, q,6,4,3, even a 5) while being OOP. you didn't mention why you x/r'd the turn so i'm curious to hear your thoughts why

as mentioned, pre is also pretty close
This is pretty much the case regardless. Yes, you'll play a smaller pot, but you'll be doing just as much guesswork otr in both instances. That's not to say that x/r is the best play here; particularly when not knowing what his betting frequency is going to be, and even then, having 70bb left after doing so is less than optimal.

As played, it's hard to disagree with x/something.

I think pre is a pretty clear fold.
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote
05-09-2017 , 10:20 AM
River is annoying but I actually am a fan of turn play. Tons of players bet this this turn too widely (almost automatically) when checked too, mainly since pretty much every hand needs protection, and checkraising (both as bluffs and thin value) is the most natural way to punish. As said above, its not like rivers are somehow easier if we just bet turn normally or go into a c/c line.

As played, I think c/f river. Betting as a bluff is just ridiculous, its closer to a value-shove. Mainly I just trust people to checkback sets and a 5 pretty often. There's just not a lot of complete misses in villain's range that can be turned into bluffs.
Str8 vs. river flush card Quote

      
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