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***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD***

03-25-2015 , 02:08 PM
The two "banned" accounts (player 6 and 7) both crushed plo100 with 12-13bb/100 winrates. Both accounts stopped playing at the same time last year.

Looking at the stats for player 6 and 7, with the biggest difference being 3,7% and most postflop-stats within 1%, I am very sure those accounts are bots.

Thx for the input though :-)
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03-25-2015 , 02:11 PM
So that's 1.7 million hands with an avg 7bb/100 - 7 runouts of this is not really going to be unlikely within the player pool, and neither is it unlikely that pros within the pool are going to notice these identities. I rarely see chat from anyone. The volume part is interesting but I can't see exactly for each. Should put AIEV adjusted and the span of time the hand volume was played in the table as will help see better if its not just paranoia.

There are alternatives like it is bonus whoring who moves around and/or uses friends identities , or collusion. Maybe just ask why the accounts were banned...
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03-25-2015 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oink

- According to russian PTR they never play zoom. 7 guys logging tons of hands, but never ever playing zoom...?
I am quite new to stars and have no idea who you are talking about. All this is concerning. I have 3 questions so far:

- I don't see how the quote above would be a clue pointing at those accounts being bots. Could you tell me the reasoning here?

- I think you could out the sns of the "99.5% sure banned bots" accounts. What do the mods think?

- Did you e-mail stars security about this? It wasnt clear if you emailed for the weird session where 1 account has been min-betting 100% or for the hole shenanigans you just presented us with. If you did, when did you? Did they answer anything other than "we will look into it"? If you didn't, why didn't you (seems like the first thing to do)?


Thank you for being aware and the time you took to inform us. I hope we can clear the accounts as fast as possible or find a way to determine that they are bots and go after them.
***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
03-25-2015 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
- I don't see how the quote above would be a clue pointing at those accounts being bots. Could you tell me the reasoning here?
In it self it is of course not evidence of botting. Many regs dont play zoom. So the fact a reg isnt zooming is irrelevant. Its the fact that all of them dont play zoom, without exceptions. This point to a common MO

It is the same with the fact that the group of players dont move up despite crushing. In it self it is not suspicious if a player doenst move up despite doing well. Could be several reasons to that. However, it is weird that between 7 winners in PLO100 only one has dabbled in PLO200 - which he crushes, but he doesnt move up to PLO400.

Again, it points to a common M.O. indicating the group of players/bots are acting very similar

Quote:
- I think you could out the sns of the "99.5% sure banned bots" accounts. What do the mods think?
I am fine with that if the mods ok it.

Quote:
- Did you e-mail stars security about this? It wasnt clear if you emailed for the weird session where 1 account has been min-betting 100% or for the hole shenanigans you just presented us with. If you did, when did you? Did they answer anything other than "we will look into it"? If you didn't, why didn't you (seems like the first thing to do)?
Sorry for not being clear. I emailed stars security after that specific episode. I got the std answer that they havent seen any wrong doing and that they do everything they can to uphold game security bla bla bla.

I havent done more up untill know. Honestly I have told myself the whole time: "Cant be bots. They are too good, they dont have exactly the same stats and you are a paranoid idiot". Wasnt untill me and Grethe dug a little deeper that I really started thinking that something fishy is going on.

But man its weird. because there is no smoking gun. In other cases people have found some VERY convincing evidence. But I have to admit, me and Grethe have none of that. Just a bunch of circumstantial and anecdotal evidence...

Honestly, I dont know if they are bots or not. I dont know if they share hole cards or not. But I do know, that I would like Stars to look into it if there is a general agreement that this looks fishy

Last edited by Oink; 03-25-2015 at 03:04 PM.
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03-25-2015 , 03:28 PM
Just wondering but how would you quantify the edge that hole card sharing would have for bots? Would it be a tonne? Even then I still think humans have a much better time than bots. Obviously it will affect the AIEV but good players are reading the dead cards anyway and so this effect occurs from skill also.
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03-25-2015 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mt.FishNoob
Just wondering but how would you quantify the edge that hole card sharing would have for bots? Would it be a tonne? Even then I still think humans have a much better time than bots. Obviously it will affect the AIEV but good players are reading the dead cards anyway and so this effect occurs from skill also.
ok but if you know someone else had 4 flush cards and you're drawing to a flush that can really change your equity.
***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
03-25-2015 , 04:13 PM
@ MFN

I couldnt tell you how much knowing hole cards mean, but I would imagine its significant in particular regarding flop decisions. The poster freewilly12 posted a bunch of threads last year where he suspected similar stuff. Ie a bot and/or collusion ring. He showed plenty of graphs where the assumed culprits ran insanely hot in spots, where the money went in on the flop.



BTW. here are some hands from the weird session where one of the guys minbet/minraised 100%. I think you can spot who it is

    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35676401

    BTN: $100 (100 bb)
    SB: $2,580.04 (2,580 bb)
    Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
    MP: $100 (100 bb)
    CO: $527.36 (527.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A 7 A 8
    MP folds, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.50, CO raises to $11, Hero raises to $33.50, CO raises to $56, Hero raises to $100 and is all-in, CO calls $44

    Flop: ($200.50) 6 J 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    Turn: ($200.50) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: ($200.50) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: $200.50 pot ($2.80 rake)
    Final Board: 6 J 7 T Q
    Hero showed A 7 A 8 and lost (-$100 net)
    CO showed T 3 J 8 and won $197.70 ($97.70 net)



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35676411

      CO: $100 (100 bb)
      BTN: $2,303.22 (2,303.2 bb)
      Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)
      BB: $100 (100 bb)
      MP: $515.64 (515.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 3 K 9
      MP raises to $2, CO folds, BTN raises to $5, 2 folds, MP raises to $8, BTN calls $3

      Flop: ($17.50) A 7 Q (2 players)
      MP bets $1, BTN raises to $2, MP raises to $3, BTN calls $1

      Turn: ($23.50) 6 (2 players)
      MP bets $1, BTN raises to $25.44, MP raises to $49.88, BTN raises to $160, MP raises to $270.12, BTN calls $110.12

      River: ($563.74) Q (2 players)
      MP bets $1, BTN calls $1

      Spoiler:
      Results: $565.74 pot ($2.80 rake)
      Final Board: A 7 Q 6 Q
      BTN showed K T 2 Q and won $562.94 ($280.82 net)
      MP showed Q J 9 3 and lost (-$282.12 net)



      Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
        Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35676421

        SB: $119.74 (119.7 bb)
        BB: $100 (100 bb)
        UTG: $2,279.52 (2,279.5 bb)
        Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)
        CO: $120 (120 bb)
        BTN: $100 (100 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is MP with 8 9 5 Q
        UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BTN raises to $6, SB calls $5.50, BB folds, UTG raises to $25, BTN raises to $44, SB folds, UTG raises to $139, BTN calls $56 and is all-in

        Flop: ($207) 6 3 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
        Turn: ($207) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
        River: ($207) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

        Spoiler:
        Results: $207 pot ($2.80 rake)
        Final Board: 6 3 7 K 7
        UTG showed A 5 4 A and won $204.20 ($104.20 net)
        BTN mucked 8 8 T 5 and lost (-$100 net)



        Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
          Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35676431

          CO: $113.74 (113.7 bb)
          BTN: $100 (100 bb)
          SB: $2,303.72 (2,303.7 bb)
          Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
          UTG: $100 (100 bb)
          MP: $303.20 (303.2 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 T T Q
          UTG raises to $3.50, MP raises to $6, CO calls $6, 3 folds, UTG raises to $25.50, MP raises to $45, CO calls $39, UTG raises to $100 and is all-in, MP raises to $155, CO calls $68.74 and is all-in

          Flop: ($328.98) 5 Q J (3 players, 2 are all-in)
          Turn: ($328.98) 8 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
          River: ($328.98) 7 (3 players, 2 are all-in)

          Spoiler:
          Results: $328.98 pot ($2.80 rake)
          Final Board: 5 Q J 8 7
          CO mucked 9 J K 9 and lost (-$113.74 net)
          UTG mucked Q 6 K 6 and lost (-$100 net)
          MP showed J 5 4 4 and won $326.18 ($212.44 net)



          Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
            Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35676441

            UTG: $40 (40 bb)
            MP: $100 (100 bb)
            CO: $1,330.82 (1,330.8 bb)
            Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)
            SB: $100 (100 bb)
            BB: $709.50 (709.5 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BTN with K 4 A 5
            UTG posts BB OOP, UTG raises to $2, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $11.50, BB raises to $22, UTG raises to $39.50 and is all-in, MP folds, CO calls $37.50, Hero raises to $100 and is all-in, SB calls $88 and is all-in, BB raises to $160.50, CO calls $121

            Flop: ($563) 4 6 3 (5 players, 3 are all-in)
            BB bets $1, CO raises to $181, BB raises to $361, CO raises to $1,170.32, BB calls $188 and is all-in

            Turn: ($1,661) Q (5 players, 4 are all-in)
            River: ($1,661) 6 (5 players, 4 are all-in)

            Spoiler:
            Results: $1,661 pot ($2.80 rake)
            Final Board: 4 6 3 Q 6
            UTG mucked 2 9 8 J and lost (-$40 net)
            CO showed 7 8 6 6 and won $1,658.20 ($948.70 net)
            Hero mucked K 4 A 5 and lost (-$100 net)
            SB mucked A J J 5 and lost (-$100 net)
            BB showed 9 5 4 T and lost (-$709.50 net)



            Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:18 PM
            It still doesn't indicate bots, only collusion, as humans will use this info better.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle

            taking stats of 7 players, the chance of two winning players stats being similar is not so bad. I don't know what it is ,


            Quote:
            - One funny but super weird story that imho is very very suspicous: Sometime last year, I want to say 4-6 months ago, I play a session in the afternoon. One of the guys (player 3) sits at 3 or 4 of my tables. The weird thing is that at 1 table he proceeds to minbet or minraise 100%. Literally 100%, both pre post (eg cbetting 1 bb into 65bb pots). It is only when faced with an all in, where he would call. He does this for about 25 minutes and then leaves. However at the other tables he plays his usual style.

            I actually reported this to stars, but I get the std answer. "no wrong doing bla bla"
            This part is super lol tbh, like the bot was bugged into always raising for about 150 hands or something?
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:23 PM
            this makes me very very sad. i dont have any input on the matter as i dont play these games, but if charlybumbum and grethe suspect something fishy is happening it probably is
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:31 PM
            Knowing 4 more cards on every hand would be a tremendous help. Your NSD would skyrocket as well as running over aiev. There is no beating a guy that knows 4 more cards than you. This is nothing like a guy thinking about card removal while in hand. If the bot is well made it could also take card removal into account (on top of the cards it knows through colluding)

            Charlie: in those hands you have when 2 suspected accounts were at same table, how do they NSD compare to when they are not on the same table?
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:38 PM
            I actually find it awesome if someone has solved the game so much they can create bots... Kudos to them, bring them on. But collusion is ****ing despicable. I trust stars has pretty good security on these issues though.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:43 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by kelnel
            Charlie: in those hands you have when 2 suspected accounts were at same table, how do they NSD compare to when they are not on the same table?
            I cant filter for that in PT4 .

            According to russian PTR their NSD winnings are either around break even or positive for all the players.

            Again, not a smoking gun (very far from it). Plenty of players have positive NSD winnings. But further evidence that fits well with the overall story line
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:46 PM
            I can imagine 1 dude from Kazakhstan crushing plo100, but 2? No way in hell!
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:46 PM
            charlybum, i don't see anything wrong w this players. just looks 7 good players .
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:48 PM
            Much of these topics were discussed last time as people were trolling freewilly's posts. Thanks for oink and Grethe for bringing this up. I also agree this seems fishy.

            Just wanted to add my 2c: It's not necessarily that bots are playing 100% GTO poker, it's their consistency that beats humans. They don't make major errors possibly ever whereas the difference between a slightly losing player and a winner might be his inconsistency and that his game ranges too much from A-game to C-game.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 04:59 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by Oink
            I cant filter for that in PT4 .

            According to russian PTR their NSD winnings are either around break even or positive for all the players.

            Again, not a smoking gun (very far from it). Plenty of players have positive NSD winnings. But further evidence that fits well with the overall story line

            Easy with HM. I can do it if you want. Pm.

            Go2go right now but will check tomorow
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 06:11 PM
            Quote:
            Originally Posted by apo5tol
            I can imagine 1 dude from Kazakhstan crushing plo100, but 2? No way in hell!
            Hah, take a look at player 6 and 7 then


            Quote:
            Originally Posted by MaximumAnonymity
            Much of these topics were discussed last time as people were trolling freewilly's posts. Thanks for oink and Grethe for bringing this up. I also agree this seems fishy.

            Just wanted to add my 2c: It's not necessarily that bots are playing 100% GTO poker, it's their consistency that beats humans. They don't make major errors possibly ever whereas the difference between a slightly losing player and a winner might be his inconsistency and that his game ranges too much from A-game to C-game.
            This is a very good point.


            Also, I'll urge people to look at some of the similarities in the data listed.
            I think the postflop stats are very suspicious
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 07:30 PM
            ^^

            The 2 accounts from Kazahkstan that we suspect were banned, have very very suspicious stats. I dont think anyone in his right mind can take a look at those stats and not worry about botting.

            Throughout the years I have played with exactly 2 regs from Kazahkstan. Those 2. They both crushed and they played with almost exactly the same frequencies postflop

            Btw. None of these guys plays any tournaments or SNGs, they have played a handfull of freerools - prolly the all in shoot outs. They grind hunreds of thousands of hands, but never play a single tournament or SnG... Again, not a smoking gun, not close. Its just weird behaviour

            Last edited by Oink; 03-25-2015 at 07:41 PM.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-25-2015 , 09:42 PM
            I think you guys are onto something here. It is extremely unlikely that four players residing the same country playing in the same games will have almost identical stats (difference of each <3%) when comparing 25 different indexes. I am pretty sure if you dig even deeper you are going to find more stats with the same similarities. IMO stars should be informed about this so they can take a closer look with their more sophisticated security tools.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-26-2015 , 05:51 AM
            ^

            Exactly my point of view. Some of the stats, especially the postflop stats, are so similar in patterns, that it just cant be explained by "a special style" or "learned from a certain person". Even some of the best players in HS-games today have stats less identical than these guys. I mean, whats the chance of 4-7 players all stealing SB within a 3% interval AND at the same time having the exact same betting/calling pattern postflop.

            Then add the location, no history, no zoom, the AIEV rungood, no one moving up or playing tours/sngs/whatever and the weird episode with min-raising everyhand while playing normal at the other tables.

            Something just doesn't add up imo.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-26-2015 , 06:05 AM
            Jeah, agree. Please send the info to pokerstars and also link this thread.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-26-2015 , 06:05 AM
            you guys should make a topic for this, dont think bbv is the place for such a serious issue
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-26-2015 , 06:08 AM
            Definitely seems shady.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote
            03-26-2015 , 06:20 AM
            i donīt know these players, but happy that respected posters like oink and grethe brought it up, def adds to a more valuable discussion on a very serious topic.

            fwiw, with all the cheating going on everywhere, school, university, sports, politics, it would be foolish to assume that a business like online poker is completely safe due to a somehow unhackable software. most of us were prob cheated in some point of their careers without knowing it.
            ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** Quote

                  
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