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Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair

05-14-2021 , 09:49 AM
PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 270.8 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 81.8 BB
UTG: 87.8 BB
MP: 100.2 BB
Hero (CO): 157 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J T 9 A

fold, MP raises to 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 8.6 BB, BTN calls 8.6 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 6.2 BB

Flop: (27.2 BB, 3 players) J 4 6
MP checks, Hero bets 13.2 BB, BTN calls 13.2 BB, fold

Turn: (53.6 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 51.6 BB, fold

Hero wins 51.6 BB

OTF I think a little higher would have been good, I surely want to keep the worse flush around, but there is a low straightdraw too that I can charge?

Turn: This cards helps my range more than his I think and betting small would make it hard on the river if I miss the flush, so keep hammering with increased equity?
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-14-2021 , 11:45 AM
I don't know what the best sizing is but I'd probably have done 1/2 pot. It would maybe keep draws in, you have an open ended straight draw with K or 8 giving you the nut straight and hopefully you can extract more value on the river if you hit.

of course this will depend on the opponent. I've found some villains love to chase flush regardless of the odds so I've made notes on them and I size big when facing those opponents.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-14-2021 , 12:10 PM
I wouldn't bet flop, and if I did, would be a larger sizing.

Turn I think checking is nice. You're really only folding out 46 and stuff, and you'll fold out stuff you dominate.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InkyPoker
I wouldn't bet flop, and if I did, would be a larger sizing.

Turn I think checking is nice. You're really only folding out 46 and stuff, and you'll fold out stuff you dominate.
I don't understand the logic on the flop: it looks to me we have hit the flop somewhat hard, we can get called by other J high hands and lower flush draws and over pairs.

On the other hand, our hand is fairly vulnerable as they might have as many as 9 outs to two pair or we might be against another AJ which we dominate.

If they have outs for the lower straight (which they will have some of the time, having min raised pre I've seen many people doing with smaller rundowns) shouldn't we charge them something to draw?

If we are check raised by MP (and BU folds) with an effective SPR of 3.5 you think we fold here?

Is it being MW the crux, because if the button raises behind us we are crushed by a set and they cover us? Or we would like for them to attempt to steal and we check raise all in?

I am sorry, this game is really hard XD
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 03:06 PM
Quote:
I don't understand the logic on the flop: it looks to me we have hit the flop somewhat hard, we can get called by other J high hands and lower flush draws and over pairs.
Well two things: Firstly we shouldn't really just think about our hand in a vacuum. Yes we want to maximize vacuum EV but the human brain generally is not good at knowing that if we don't consider all the factors. In this spot, we simply do not have a very big betting range, and we also want to have a check raise range for when we check. If you bet this, how often do you think you will be betting? And what will your check strategy be like?

Secondly... um no they shouldn't. Three way? Jxxx with no backup? dry lower fds and overpairs? And if we cover multiple ways then we want to keep them in too and get max that way.

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On the other hand, our hand is fairly vulnerable as they might have as many as 9 outs to two pair or we might be against another AJ which we dominate.
I mean, does that mean you're basically only check raising nfd with a set?

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If they have outs for the lower straight (which they will have some of the time, having min raised pre I've seen many people doing with smaller rundowns) shouldn't we charge them something to draw?
Like generally speaking you are just using very like older school poker thought processes of assuming nobody will ever make life difficult for you and just betting because it makes EV, but we should be comparing it to our EV of checking and how it does overall. I mean, if you wanna go the "no one is balanced at x stake" argument then go ahead, that's just such a dead horse.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InkyPoker
In this spot, we simply do not have a very big betting range, and we also want to have a check raise range for when we check. If you bet this, how often do you think you will be betting? And what will your check strategy be like?
I think my thought process here is very simplified (I have studied pre quite a bit so far, but not much flop and turn) and amounts to doing the same thing I might do HU IP after a single raise which is cbetting with what I think is the top of my range.

So what I get here is that if this is being bet I will end up checking a lot in this type of spot and my checking range is now very weak making me easy to play against.

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I mean, does that mean you're basically only check raising nfd with a set?
Thinking of it, probably my check-raising range looks a lot like that and I don't really know what goes into it.

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I mean, if you wanna go the "no one is balanced at x stake" argument then go ahead, that's just such a dead horse.
Not at all, goal is to learn to play, not play PLO5 forever, so all you are saying is helpful.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 04:25 PM
I think we shouldn't overthink this situation. We flop basically the nuts for this hand.

If we check we let straights get there, backdoor flushes, QQ and KK have good equity vs us, we might get them to fold. We block top set and villains are not too likely to have a low set.

Bet flop seems good and happy to get all the money in on the flop. half pot seems a bit low here, would intend to bet a bit more.


On the turn QJ gets there, QQ gets top set. There is only one card to come so I would be likely to slow down and leaning toward a check-call. If we bet we bet big so we can get the KK and lower two pairs out and committing ourselves so villains won't shove their possible draws.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 04:36 PM
So you only have the nuts when you bet?

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I think we shouldn't overthink this situation.
I do in fact enjoy the fact that most of my opponent's underthink.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by InkyPoker
So you only have the nuts when you bet?
No
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by derjan
I think we shouldn't overthink this situation. We flop basically the nuts for this hand.

If we check we let straights get there, backdoor flushes, QQ and KK have good equity vs us, we might get them to fold. We block top set and villains are not too likely to have a low set.

Bet flop seems good and happy to get all the money in on the flop. half pot seems a bit low here, would intend to bet a bit more.


On the turn QJ gets there, QQ gets top set. There is only one card to come so I would be likely to slow down and leaning toward a check-call. If we bet we bet big so we can get the KK and lower two pairs out and committing ourselves so villains won't shove their possible draws.
This is a really dangerous line of thought.

While it's true we flopped a strong hand, we have plenty of bad runouts - and playing 160bb deep we can get tortured turn amd river OOP. Meaning being balanced here is very important.

Without resorting to a solver, i think we can mix on both flop and turn.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-16-2021 , 10:13 PM
@Inky If the button raised the flop would you check reraise for the max size or just check call? I guess there are a lot of variables with another opponent in the pot also.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-17-2021 , 02:55 AM
vs weaker players who play passively and has a wider range (as compared with GTO), betting should be the best option?
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-17-2021 , 03:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
This is a really dangerous line of thought.

While it's true we flopped a strong hand, we have plenty of bad runouts - and playing 160bb deep we can get tortured turn amd river OOP. Meaning being balanced here is very important.

Without resorting to a solver, i think we can mix on both flop and turn.
True that we are deep that might make a difference.

But then still villains are likely to hold QQ or KK they have good equity vs us so we want to push them out. Sets are unlikely for mentioned reasons. If we wait a street and a blank comes the overpairs have increased equity against us or might give them two pair or a straight or a flusdraw to come along with the overpair.

So then why wait. Worst case scenario we get it all in with the NFD so we still have a good chance to win.

But most likely we get better hands to fold or prevent weaker hands from drawing out on us.

Think mixing up with a check here is ok but our main line should be to bet.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-17-2021 , 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jreven
@Inky If the button raised the flop would you check reraise for the max size or just check call? I guess there are a lot of variables with another opponent in the pot also.
Yeah it'll depend.

With this hand, we're so strong that obviously betting would always be fine, and mixing some is okay if you're wanna be like that, but what I can see is people not caring about their check ranges and check through lines. Of course I already know this since it's basically the clearest read of a weak reg.
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote
05-17-2021 , 11:31 AM
It is true that many people over valuate the pair and flushdraw type of hands vs sets so for that reason can understand the check.

But in this specific situation we are best of betting as the sets aren’t really likely
Sizing with NFD + gutshot + second pair Quote

      
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