Quote:
Originally Posted by Caterina
Hopefully, this is not against the threadrules.
Came to the conclusion, that my rivercall is bad, even at with these odds.
Didn't raise pot otf because
I think, I'm often up against a set and don't want to gamble with "only" 65%ish equity for ~185BB (A set is almost always jamming, if I 3! flop). It improves their draw, when they see two cards, instead of one. Planning to fold all paired turns and x/r all non paired ones. If opponent raises a set OTF, he is very likely to call x/r turn too, where his equity is down to ~25%. Also folding out every random bluff and some weaker flushes, if I 3! (the hands that think my bet is a weak steal attempt)
However, with no raise, we are not all in on the turn sadly. So maybe it would have been better, to make a smallish raise on the flop. Just enough to GI on the turn and offer illusionary good odds to smaller flushes.
If nothing else, I think it's a mistake to count on villain to bet non-pair turns for you. By calling flop with the plan to check turn, you're exacerbating the problem I mentioned before: you're letting them realize their equity at the price they want.
You saw this on the turn as played: they bet/called and were able to get the last bet in OTR with the paired board and you at 0% equity.
You're really lucky that they bet the turn, imo. Even a bad player can figure out to take the free card pretty often here.
By the way: with regard to folding out their bluffs when you 3bet the flop, I just don't see it happening very often at all. You block their best bluff with Ks. They have something they like a lot the vast majority of the time here, and I think we can just valuetown them: we know they're spewy because they're raising here without the nuts or the best card for a bluff or semibluff. (I may be wrong about an optimal or even just +EV raising range on this flop, but I'd be surprised.)
And if they fold a set? That's really not a terrible outcome. Denying equity is not a bad thing. You said yourself you're not necessarily that far ahead of them. The less ahead you are, the more you gain from denying equity, right?
3betting flop just seems very win/win to me. And if you're not doing it because you're feeling generally risk-averse, then you should have left the table and bought in shorter elsewhere (or at lower stakes). (There's honestly no shame in this; I did it just today when I ran up a very nice stack on my shot-taking table. I left and took a seat at a different table at the same stakes so I wouldn't lose such a big chunk of my bankroll if things went poorly in a big pot.)