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PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away?

11-12-2017 , 06:50 PM
Villian is 54/23 with 9.2% 3 bet and 83% c-bet over 1.2k hands.
We have some history together. He is reraising my all day long. Can't adjust to him right now. Hate to play against him...
Preflop should I am going for a 4bet oop? He is folding 0% to 3bet.
Flop: I put villian on AAxx, AJxx Jxxx or somethings like that and was sure I am in front at this kind of flop...
Do you like my reraise over his c-bet or was I tilting my money away here?

    Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37870125

    MP: $145.07 (290.1 bb)
    CO: $50 (100 bb)
    BTN: $54.93 (109.9 bb)
    Hero (SB): $181.83 (363.7 bb)
    BB: $176.26 (352.5 bb)
    UTG: $56.04 (112.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with J K 2 K
    2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, BB raises to $8.75, CO calls $7, BTN calls $7, Hero calls $7

    Flop: ($35) 2 J 4 (4 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $33.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $133, BB raises to $167.51 and is all-in, Hero calls $34.51

    Turn: ($370.02) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: ($370.02) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: $370.02 pot ($2 rake)
    Final Board: 2 J 4 6 8
    CO mucked and lost (-$8.75 net)
    BTN mucked and lost (-$8.75 net)
    Hero showed J K 2 K and lost (-$176.26 net)
    BB showed J 3 4 A and won $368.02 ($191.76 net)



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    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 05:20 AM
    I wouldn't call this guy a maniac, he's 3betting 9% which isn't so huge. I think it's not a good idea to 4bet here being 350bb deep. also his 3bet of 9% is overall, here he's 3betting against 3 calls, which might be lower than 9% range.

    on the flop SPR is cca 5, with top and bottom on a board which is pretty hard to hit I think it was destined for you to go broke in this hand. an argument could be made that just calling flop might be better, but he's potting 4way on the flop, is that ever a bluff? close your eyes and hope he has AA

    Last edited by md46135; 11-13-2017 at 05:30 AM.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 07:56 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MartinK1979
    Flop: I put villian on AAxx, AJxx Jxxx or somethings like that and was sure I am in front at this kind of flop...
    Why? I would include JJxx, 44xx as well (for example, 5644 is a hand that a Villain such as you decribe might have). And hands like 7654, 7653 etc. EDIT: Ok, with 9% 3B I maybe gave him a too wide 3B range here.

    Villian potting on this board against three players - of whom two are in for their whole stack (more or less) if they call - is almost never a bluff. I think that your best case scenario is AAxx. Against other AJxx/Jxxx you have decent equity, but you are in a ****ty spot anyway since you have no good options on the flop.

    1) Folding two pair is weak against such a Villain, but on a board like this with no redraws it might actually be the best play since you are otherwise playing a 700BB pot with top and bottom, which is rarely a good idea.

    2) Calling sucks even more. If you call, you are OOP in a huge pot. If you donk the turn, Villian will most likely only fold the very rare bluffs, but get it in with all other hands where the equity against your two pair ranges from "okay" to "great". Checking the turn will not work either, since Villian will bet all of his range and by now, your hand might be completely crushed (again, without redraws). Check-folding? In that case, better fold flop.

    3) Re-raising all-in. Villain will fold some rare bluffs, but in most cases you are playing a 700BB pot with top and bottom without any real redraws and with an equity that is around 40%, or so (I do not have access to an equity calculator at this moment, so if I am wrong, please correct me, but I think that equity against a reasonable range is somewhere around 35-40%).

    And last but not least, my main consideration for not wanting to get it in is actually connected to stack sizes. Consider for a while the implications of losing this pot - you are back to a 100BB stack, which greatly reduces both future equity against Villian and your manoeuvrability. If this was a live game with uncapped buyin, and I was properly bankrolled and had the cash available to rebuy for 700BB if I lost, then I would be much more inclined to gamble it up.

    Last edited by ReGen; 11-13-2017 at 08:24 AM.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 10:33 AM
    call

    if you are known for losing your head ott and are liable to go crazy, just ship flop, but don´t fold.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 10:36 AM
    wow.. Thank you much for your great analysis ReGen.
    I was a little bit on tilt in this session so I was gambling more than I should and this hand was a huge diseaster...I should stand up at this table because this guys was next on my left. So he has position and agression advantage on me..
    But anyway if I would play my A game I should fold this hand on flop and save my 350BB stack...

    @sauhund becuase I was on tilt I was gambling with my huge stack this time...
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 12:15 PM
    First of all if you have maniac on your left and you hate to play against him,and nobody

    is forcing you to play by putting gun on your head or something just leave the table.

    Second you have bad kings and don`t like reraising with this hand,If you had

    kk88 ds for example that woudl be much better.
    Stacking with 300 bb deep with top and bottom 4way doesn`t sound like profitable

    unless he s a maniac and and totally clueless.Lastly very important thing mentioned

    by ReGen.If you play against weaker player deep(3500bb here)but you can only rebuy

    for 100bb you are generally looking for bigger equity edges.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 05:14 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MartinK1979
    wow.. Thank you much for your great analysis ReGen.
    Thanks. The thing about stack sizes is worth keeping in mind, especially in PLO where it is not unusual for several deep stacks to be in play also online. If you lose your stack and the next hand flop top set vs middle set, you will only win 100 BB in a spot where your equity will be more than twice as high.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 06:59 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MartinK1979
    @sauhund becuase I was on tilt I was gambling with my huge stack this time...
    ahem, no
    pre is fine
    don´t fold flop.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 08:07 PM
    He 3bets 9% on big sample but could 3bet more at this table.
    Board doesn`t connect well w/ his squeeze range anyway and he will have way more aces than 44 esp given our blockers. We also at the very top of our range and won`t have many better hands.
    We`re 56% vs AA+, 53+ and even better if we add AJ, seems fine to stack off.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 08:55 PM
    Vs the description of villain you provide its prolly a call in most cases,but you really gotta consider the stack depth here.

    Youre 300bbs deep effective and villain is potting into 4 ppl,youre not really crushing anything except somethin like QQ24ds ,even if he has some low wrap hes doing great,and Pair+3 overs have around 39% in this spot(like QJ9T etc).

    Calling is an option but considering you dont really have BDs,you wont be excited with any turn card that doesnt boat you up.

    Its a really awful spot,100-150bbs it would be a fistpump jam vs maniac.
    Just because his been abusing us all day i'd prolly call it off as well,being extremely unhappy about it but to make the correct decision we should prolly run this in Pokerjuice or somthin.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-13-2017 , 09:04 PM
    Folding the flop is horrible.

    "We don't want to stack off with top and bottom 300bb when someone c-bets into three people" is a very robotic way of thinking about this spot. Top and bottom happens to be a really strong hand here. Even if villain is c-betting an ultra-tight range of [two-pair+, wraps+, OESD with Jx+, AA with a gutter], we have 46% equity, which is a bit more than needed to stack off. That range by the way corresponds with a c-bet frequency of just 15% (!), prior to card removal. Despite the fact that there are three people in the pot, two of them are playing at a 1 SPR relative to the BB, so the BB should be able to confidently pot a bunch of hands that are weaker than those in that tight range, comfortably stacking off against those players.

    Jamming should be better than calling -- villain shouldn't have many truly weak hands, and the slim gains we get from potentially dodging certain turns (such as aces) are offset significantly by allowing villain's more marginal hands (e.g., Jxxx) that would bet/gii against the two 100 bb stacks but have a tough decision against us to get to the turn without additional expenses.

    Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 11-13-2017 at 09:13 PM.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-14-2017 , 03:48 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    Folding the flop is horrible.

    "We don't want to stack off with top and bottom 300bb when someone c-bets into three people" is a very robotic way of thinking about this spot. Top and bottom happens to be a really strong hand here. Even if villain is c-betting an ultra-tight range of [two-pair+, wraps+, OESD with Jx+, AA with a gutter], we have 46% equity, which is a bit more than needed to stack off. That range by the way corresponds with a c-bet frequency of just 15% (!), prior to card removal. Despite the fact that there are three people in the pot, two of them are playing at a 1 SPR relative to the BB, so the BB should be able to confidently pot a bunch of hands that are weaker than those in that tight range, comfortably stacking off against those players.

    Jamming should be better than calling -- villain shouldn't have many truly weak hands, and the slim gains we get from potentially dodging certain turns (such as aces) are offset significantly by allowing villain's more marginal hands (e.g., Jxxx) that would bet/gii against the two 100 bb stacks but have a tough decision against us to get to the turn without additional expenses.
    Yes, when I wrote my previous reply, I did not have access to an equity calculator, my assumption of 40% or lower is off. However, given the description of Villain and the stack sizes, I still think that folding probably is more profitable, since we should be able to find a better spot and if we lose, we are playing at 100 BB again and can only win 1/7 of Villain's stack. Of course, there are no guarantees that Villain will not leave after the next hand, but I still do not agree that folding the flop is bad in this situation.

    That said, if I was Hero, I most likely would have gotten it all in in a heartbeat given the description of Villain, but I do not think it is optimal in this situation.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-14-2017 , 04:18 AM
    I get what you are saying, but folding is giving up a bunch of EV. GII with even just 50% equity is 368.02*0.5 - 167.51 = 16.5 = 33bb (after rake). To have that much equity, you need villain to be shoving just a modest number of AA/AJ type hands (AJ$np specifically alone is enough combos)*. He'll probably be betting even wider than that, but even just the 33 bb in EV is a ton. I don't think we can pass that up.

    How long can we expect the session to continue? To be very generous, let's say 200 more hands at this table alone, which is a lot. So in order to pass up this spot, being at this stack depth needs to be, at the bare minimum, 16.5bb/100 in EV better than being at 100bb deep. No indication that villain is punting that much -- and if he is, we can also be assured frequent high-variance spots to get a deeper stack again, because our EV at 100 bb would have to be quite big as well for there to be such a gap.


    *(AJ$np without a gutter or better has just about enough equity to stack off against our specific hand, so we do roughly as well if those hands decide instead to bet/fold.)

    Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 11-14-2017 at 04:24 AM.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-14-2017 , 07:01 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by user12345
    He 3bets 9% on big sample but could 3bet more at this table.
    Board doesn`t connect well w/ his squeeze range anyway and he will have way more aces than 44 esp given our blockers. We also at the very top of our range and won`t have many better hands.
    We`re 56% vs AA+, 53+ and even better if we add AJ, seems fine to stack off.
    He 3bets wider than 9%and this board doesn't connect with
    His squeezze range? He can have anything if he 3bet too wide.

    Why would we puthim on aces on flop if he is a maniac 3betting more than 9%? Lastly saying that he is likely to have aa Than 44 since we block j2 doesn't make much sense. If we block 2 cards on flop that doesn't reduce possibility that our opponent have 3card.
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote
    11-14-2017 , 06:26 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Purasevic
    He 3bets wider than 9%and this board doesn't connect with
    His squeezze range? He can have anything if he 3bet too wide.
    that`s my point

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Purasevic
    Why would we puthim on aces on flop if he is a maniac 3betting more than 9%? Lastly saying that he is likely to have aa Than 44 since we block j2 doesn't make much sense. If we block 2 cards on flop that doesn't reduce possibility that our opponent have 3card.
    obv I implied we block JJ,22. is it so hard?
    PLO50 KKJ2ss deep vs. maniac. Tilting money away? Quote

          
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