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PL Omaha 0.05(BB)
BTN ($5.15)
SB ($27.21)
BB ($4.24)
HERO ($8.15)
HJ ($23.05)
CO ($5.98)

Dealt to Hero: 3 A A K

HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Calls $0.15, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.15, SB Calls $0.13, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.69 effective]
Flop ($0.65): 2 2 2
SB Bets $0.16 (Rem. Stack: $26.90), HERO Calls $0.16 (Rem. Stack: $7.84), HJ Calls $0.16 (Rem. Stack: $22.74), BTN Folds

Turn ($1.13): 2 2 2 9
SB Bets $0.28 (Rem. Stack: $26.62), HERO Calls $0.28 (Rem. Stack: $7.56), HJ Calls $0.28 (Rem. Stack: $22.46)

River ($1.97): 2 2 2 9 3
SB Bets $0.49 (Rem. Stack: $26.13), HERO Raises To $1.25 (Rem. Stack: $6.31), HJ Raises To $6.21 (Rem. Stack: $16.25), SB Folds, HERO Calls $4.96 (Rem. Stack: $1.35)



I'm more of a hold em player and wanted some feedback on this river. Is villain always going to have a 2 here? In the moment my heart and head said fold but maybe there's enough people overrepping other boats here to make this not so bad? Villain was pretty passive but sample size was pretty small at around ~20 hands.

I'd fold the river the first time before raising.

Preflop, Flop and Turn are all ok. Unfortunately the nature of PLO makes preflop Aces very frustrating given the high variance nature of the game.

River is either a call or a fold first time around. You've only got a bluff catch (if you raise, what are you getting called or raised by?).

I'd lean towards a fold unless I'd seen the villain bluff off here before.

I think we can safely call the river getting 5:1 with AA, we're probably still good most of the time. Actually, I would be quite shocked to lose to villains line. I think we're easily good 80%+ here. Once villain decides to put in a full buyin more on the river we can comfortably fold.

I would disagree with your 80 percent. He's bet three times into two players. His likely hand is a 2 at that point.

Would just call river. If we raise, prefer the turn.

Seems people are confusing the action. SB lead out weak, while MP puts in the raise OTR. This line is just always a 2, can't see any hand that would bluff or be turned into a bluff at the required 33% frequency.
MP flatting behind us should be of some concern. SB could have whatever QQ, KK, even 88 or some stupid stuff, but MP smoothly calls, when he (should?) know that Hero is highpair heavy (being UTG and all).

He bet three times using a quarter pot sizing. I'd expect JJ or a random bluff all day long before I thought quads.

PPG, wake up. This hand is 3way:
flop: SB bet tiny, H. call, MP call
turn: SB bet tiny, H. call, MP call
river: SB bet tiny, H. raise, MP 3!

Yes, MP can be totally spazzing it out with I don't know what, but I bet like 85%+ of the time, he has AA beat.

i get an impression that over the course of the discussion perhaps some details / people's views have either been misread, not taken in context or understated.

my impression (and happy to be wrong if i have misread the way the discussion has morphed) is that the MP / villain's massive raise over the top on the river means our hero should always be folding. i don't think people have meant otherwise (happy to be wrong).

where the discussion has seemingly been distorted is with the response to the Hero raising or just flatting the SB (and may have used the villain term interchangeably).

my take is PokerProGamble meant that (1) there is a chance that the SB's betting could also be an overpair trying to name their price and maybe a raise could get some sort of thin value, and (2) the way the MP has played it mostly reps some over pair too (as opposed to a 2).

hopefully this clarifies the spot, and happy to be wrong if i have misread the situation.

in any case there are two problems here for me; (1) what value are we targeting if we raise on the river?, and (2) the MP is still to act. perhaps i'm being a bit too passive / leaving money on the table by just calling. the risk i always worry about here is when you subsequently get jammed after calling (by the MP) / raising. i just don't think the thin value is worth the risk.

as an aside, from what i can tell is that we are also playing the lowest limit online. i wouldnt be surprised if one of these opponents turned up with some bs in their hand with either pocket 3s or pocket 9s.

Yes, I know. What I have been saying is that I would be shocked to find out that SB has us beat. His small sizing on three streets makes me very confident in my hand against him.

No, I think you have that right. If this was headsup against SB, AA can raise (pbbly OTT as monik suggested earlier), to get value from 22-KK, who players like SB do show up with quite a bit and also call a raise with quite a bit.
But since there is still MP behind us, I think, Hero should not raise. We are UTG, we called 2 streets, we just always have QQ+. This should be quite obvious to the table.

Both of which have us beat.

agreed. it's what makes Aces preflop so darn frustrating, even if you have position.

It depends on what your HUD stats say on your opponent, but the way the river played I am most likely folding unless the villain has a ultra high aggression factor.

I'd need a two blocker to put in another penny vs. a raise.

*chefs kiss*