Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
I think we can safely call the river getting 5:1 with AA, we're probably still good most of the time. Actually, I would be quite shocked to lose to villains line. I think we're easily good 80%+ here. Once villain decides to put in a full buyin more on the river we can comfortably fold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caterina
Seems people are confusing the action. SB lead out weak, while MP puts in the raise OTR. This line is just always a 2, can't see any hand that would bluff or be turned into a bluff at the required 33% frequency.
MP flatting behind us should be of some concern. SB could have whatever QQ, KK, even 88 or some stupid stuff, but MP smoothly calls, when he (should?) know that Hero is highpair heavy (being UTG and all).
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
He bet three times using a quarter pot sizing. I'd expect JJ or a random bluff all day long before I thought quads.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caterina
PPG, wake up. This hand is 3way:
flop: SB bet tiny, H. call, MP call
turn: SB bet tiny, H. call, MP call
river: SB bet tiny, H. raise, MP 3!
Yes, MP can be totally spazzing it out with I don't know what, but I bet like 85%+ of the time, he has AA beat.
i get an impression that over the course of the discussion perhaps some details / people's views have either been misread, not taken in context or understated.
my impression (and happy to be wrong if i have misread the way the discussion has morphed) is that the MP / villain's massive raise over the top on the river means our hero should always be folding. i don't think people have meant otherwise (happy to be wrong).
where the discussion has seemingly been distorted is with the response to the Hero raising or just flatting the SB (and may have used the villain term interchangeably).
my take is PokerProGamble meant that (1) there is a chance that the SB's betting could also be an overpair trying to name their price and maybe a raise could get some sort of thin value, and (2) the way the MP has played it mostly reps some over pair too (as opposed to a 2).
hopefully this clarifies the spot, and happy to be wrong if i have misread the situation.
in any case there are two problems here for me; (1) what value are we targeting if we raise on the river?, and (2) the MP is still to act. perhaps i'm being a bit too passive / leaving money on the table by just calling. the risk i always worry about here is when you subsequently get jammed after calling (by the MP) / raising. i just don't think the thin value is worth the risk.
as an aside, from what i can tell is that we are also playing the lowest limit online. i wouldnt be surprised if one of these opponents turned up with some bs in their hand with either pocket 3s or pocket 9s.