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PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board

10-09-2018 , 06:36 AM
Playing on pppoker
I have $473
He has $580

I have AA48 suited to the 48 of hearts
Monkey is really terrible, he has 86% vpip, he bluffs randomly and is really station. Table was crazy and there were lots of huge pots and good action

I'm on the SB, and everyone calls, action gets to me I pot to $10, one guy call, he 3bets to $42, I bet to $138 and he flats on the button. The guy who called $10folds after the 3bet

Flop is $288
I have $336 behind and he covers
and flop comes: JKT

Jam?
Check/fold oop?
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 09:28 AM
I would just flat bad AA most of the time from SB once everyone limps. You were very lucky that BB 3-bet you. Most likely result when you raise here is that you go 6-ways out of position with lousy aces.

As played I’m largely indifferent between check/fold or, bet small/fold. It’s hard to worry too much about spots with AA when SPR is close to 1.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 10:22 AM
Pile it in and try to hold vs J982r
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 01:10 PM
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: KJT
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsAd8h4h42.30% 252,6002,446
85%57.70% 344,9542,446

Given the pot size and money left you need 35% to get it in, from the description you can't get any information from checking so might as well just lead pot. Obviously some of that time you are drawing "dead".

If this is significant money and you want to play "tight" then you are losing $67.20 when you check/fold (or about 33bb).
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: KJT
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsAd8h4h42.30% 252,6002,446
85%57.70% 344,9542,446

Given the pot size and money left you need 35% to get it in, from the description you can't get any information from checking so might as well just lead pot. Obviously some of that time you are drawing "dead".

If this is significant money and you want to play "tight" then you are losing $67.20 when you check/fold (or about 33bb).
I don’t think this range is right. He has an 86% VPIP, but he 3-bet from the B.B. here which suggests a significantly tighter range.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 04:55 PM
Actually villain limp reraised. The tighter villain's range the worse things get for you on this flop.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Actually villain limp reraised. The tighter villain's range the worse things get for you on this flop.
You’re right. This makes it worse for us.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Actually villain limp reraised. The tighter villain's range the worse things get for you on this flop.
This is 100% true, even going down to an 80% range is significant. At 55% we are close to break even with x/f.

I read the action as:

monkey limps BTN
SB/hero raises
BB 3bets
monkey calls 3bet
SB/hero 4bet
BB folds
monkey calls

Which I didn't think affected his range much. Looking closer I guess the action is more like:

N limps
monkey limp on BTN
SB/hero raises
1 limper calls
monkey 3bets
SB/hero 4bets
fold
monkey call.

...assuming that it's probably x/f.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-09-2018 , 11:58 PM
The mistake is preflop. For 100bbs this is a standard 4bet shove 100% of flops. For 250bbs it's never a 4bet. Villain can play perfectly (GII with decent equity- he doesnt need to know the math even calling with one pair and 3 live side cards is correct) and you're just bloating the pot and making a very awkward SPR with a hand that doesnt know where it's at postflop.

A lot of people on this forum seem to think any AAxx hand is just an autoraise when it's not

Dry AA plays just fine multiway in fact you're actually blasting a lot of worse pairs out of the pot when you 3 and 4bet and that's the precise opposite of what you want deep with nut setmine and no backup
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote
10-10-2018 , 05:24 AM
Actually the mistake is preflop, but not with the four bet, which is fine, but with the initial raise.
PLO200 - Bad AA 4bet oop vs 86% vpip monkey and worst possible board Quote

      
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