i dont remember who was vilian.
how should i play that postflop?
pot cb/ call ? bet22/fold
turn?

You should be betting this flop since it generally favours the 3bettors range + your AA needs protection from a lot of one pair/ straight draw hands. Turn I'm not sure of, blocking Ad makes it less likely villain is bluffing turn and more likely value betting but blocking the J & 2 kings on board it's not as likely villain has a strong hand, definitely a call if you think villain is stabbing turns wide when you check flop. River is easy show down

Agree that flop is a standard cbet w/ range advantage, backdoors and the majority of turn cards do not improve your hand strength

I think betting and checking are both fine. Vs a tight mp range iam not sure we have range/nut advantage here probably not. Obv starting with checking makes the hand more complicated but that doesnt mean betting is more +ev as an overall strategy.

Yeah checking flop is fine as is betting. A lot has to do with how aggressive villain is, there are a lot of 1pair+gutshot combos players recognize have ~50% against naked AA, so its close to an auto C/R semibluff for them on this board. If that's the case then both bet/calling and bet/folding AA will be pretty uncomfortable. Vs passive players its a very easy bet/fold though.

Turn is actually pretty close but a call is fine. Its very easy for you to have a king in your range so villains should shutdown with bluffs enough that a call turn/fold river will work.

River is actually pretty interesting. I actually would strongly consider turning my hand into a bluff here. A K9 or one pair + diamonds are very much in your range. Villain has a trips and QT a lot too so checking back is basically a give up. Its also very rare that villain will check a boat or straight flush with just one bet left. All that said its still easy for villain to put you on exactly what you have. I if villain isn't tilting or a fish and my image has been relatively tight I think I do go ahead and bluff here.

Just looking at the flop play, I haven't done the math properly yet but I imagine even against passive opponents we might be priced into calling if we bet and get jammed on, unless we bet like 1/3rd pot. Against more capable opponents I guess it would be a snap GII but we're not exactly thrilled about either scenario.

good posts, learning a lot from them
agree otr we should take a good hard look at bluffing this hand

Interesting hand.

On flop, we definitely have a range advantage, no matter how tight/liberal you get with the ranges. Let’s say villain is opening 22% from MP, folds the weakest part of his opening range to your 3b, 4b’s all AA and the best KK. We can assign him a 3%-18% range to the flop. And let’s say we are 3betting 12% here:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
12%	53.6505%	51.9055%	3.4900%	311433	20940
3%-18%	46.3495%	44.6045%	3.4900%	267627	20940

The range 3%-18% contains 30,827 hands. As some have suggested, he can c/r all pr+draw hands, along with stronger hands such as sets/2pr:

Against this range we have to fold:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
4sAdAcJc	33.1488%	32.9277%	0.4423%	197566	2654
3%-18%KK,JJ,66,K...	66.8512%	66.6300%	0.4423%	399780	2654

However, this range contains only 12,883 hands, or 41.8% of his range. Therefore, a bet/fold of $22 shows an immediate profit of $10.88 if he c/r his entire continuing range and c/f the rest.

($34.50 * (1 - .418)) – ($22 * .418) = $10.88

Plus, we get the added benefit of denying the rest of his range his equity:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
4sAdAcJc	67.7494%	66.5648%	2.3692%	399389	14215
3%-18%!(KK,JJ,66,K...	32.2506%	31.0660%	2.3692%	186396	14215

I think betting the flop is far and away our best option.

On the turn, if we assign him wraps, flush draws, and all hands that beat us, we can peel:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6sKd
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
4sAdAcJc	31.0834%	30.9545%	0.2578%	185727	1547
3%-18%KK,JJ,66,K,Q...	68.9166%	68.7877%	0.2578%	412726	1547

On the river, our showdown value is pretty terrible against that range and with our Ad I think it’s a mandatory bluff spot. We don’t have to go too big because we are repping a pretty wide value range. $52 sounds about right.

Without knowing villains stats hard to say. I think these are very important here. I havn`t read the rest of comments, but against a tight mp opening range you are not in the best shape on the flop i think. I would prefer to check or bet small in this spot. If villain is a check-folder kind of guy, then bet. If hes kind of check-raiser, then i would def. not bet here.

Yes, you do see a profit by betting compared to open folding. But it's worth pointing out that you have to compare this profit to the potshare you can realize by checking.

A profit of $10.88 is realizing only 31% of the pot, which seems very low for the amount of equity vs full range we have, especially considering that we are in position.

Definitely the assumptions you are making are pretty unfavorable for betting since villain is obviously c/r a very wide range. With those assumptions, I definitely think we do better checking.

Also betting small is a good consideration if villain is check raising that often b/c we still get protection vs his folding range and we also lose less when he shoves.

Betting 22vs a range which fold or CR is pretty bad strat imo.

Good post. What profit do you think we need to make betting the flop best? Can you show how much equity we will realize when checking? Thanks

A hand like this has about 52% equity vs full range on this board.

We will definitely underrealize basically no matter what we do because we have a non-nutted distribution. But I definitely think we can realize more than 32% equity by checking. We will have some good runouts (like low bricks, J, 6, bdfd etc.) that we can call multiple streets and pick off some bluffs from his weak hands that don't have a lot of equity. Sometimes we can even turn our hand into a bluff using our position and potential blockers.

I would guess we can probably win about 40% pot share by checking, but an exact number is pretty hard to find unless you want to build the whole game tree (or run a solver).