Let's assume villain shoves any str8 and any clubs, and given flop/turn action has all of them on the river (probably more true for cc than the str8s but w/e) ... then we'll add in 88 for random plo10 spew:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KdQhTd9h | 15.71% | 1,029 | 1,010 |
(65,T9,88,cc):20% | 84.29% | 7,724 | 1,010 |
Hint: 15.7% < 23%
Bigger hint: As UTG pre. range goes down, so does your river equity.