Quote:
Originally Posted by BadAstronaut
Can someone please point me to a 101 beginner/math-n00b starting point for understanding equity and thinking properly about the numbers behind this all, as opposed to a basic 'I have a wrap plus flush draw - I shove!' sort of thinking I have stuck to since I started PLO...
I have the massive, massive hole in my game of barely thinking about the math and odds from any real standpoint, and instead it is more a 'hope for the best' if I have a really strong draw - which is obviously not a good long term approach. I have a decent understanding of basic principles, positional advantage, starting hands and so on, and have had a great run in the micros simply by ABC'ing it and taking advantage of others' appalling play, but I simply can't seem to do a thing right when I step up beyond 0.05/0.10 small stakes. My game is very much about relying on other people to be terrible and exploit that rather than learning how to play against competent opponents...
First off, do you know how to use propokertools or PPT?
You need to start thinking about ranges, for instance say you are playing against a very aggressive player on a board of Qs8s4d
We c-bet and he c/rs, typically very aggressive players will c/r their good-medium draws, two pairs+ and c/c everything else. So against that range if you had something like AdQcJs2s you have a hand that is actually doing quite well against his range of stacking off and if it was incredibly wide, this hand becomes a perfect candidate to bet/shove over his c/r as our hand plays mediocre on later streets with low visibility if we have the best hand.
On the flip side if we were against a more passive opponent who only check/raised top two pair, sets, and strong draws, our equity is going to be less and bet/shoving becomes -EV. We still have too much equity to b/f but in this case, his range is more defined and we have actual visibility on later streets because his range is mainly made hands, so not only do we get to decide quite easily when the spade hits if we have the best hand but we also can potentially bluff on the straightening cards as they do not hit his range as hard as ours.
Hopefully this helps.