Simple rules like that tend to be a lot less reliable in PLO. Here are a few examples.
1) When ranges are tight:
a) People have sets a lot more in PLO than in NLHE, so you can end up losing equity to kill cards.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
Jh9sKcAh | 27.32% | 224 | 0 |
4c3dKs4h | 72.68% | 596 | 0 |
Not the 32% that the "rule of 4" would give. But don't get the wrong idea from this -- against realistic tight stack-off ranges on this board at typical SPRs, this hand should do a bit better, partly because it actually does very well against certain draws (more on that later).
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
Jh9sKcAh | 29.97% | 805,500 | 229,579 |
(TT,88,QJ9,J97T,8,4),44QJ,Q9,J9,J7,97,96,76),T8J9,97)):8%-40% | 70.03% | 2,035,821 | 229,579 |
b) Similar to a, draws are more common in PLO, and strong draws will be significant parts of ranges for putting lots of $ into the pot, often killing many of the outs of dominated draws or giving draws with weak showdown value unexpected equity. You're a lot more likely than in NLHE to run into draw-vs.-draw scenarios.
2) When ranges are loose:
a) You can occasionally have quite a surprising amount of backdoor equity.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
3d4d7c8h | 24.68% | 2,171,745 | 40,947 |
8%-40%K)!(KK,K6,K2) | 75.32% | 6,671,188 | 40,947 |
Here's a random gutter, with what might be a surprising 25% equity against a selection of top pairs. The extra 9% compared to the "rule of 4" comes from the bdfd, the bdsd, and all the backdoor two pair / trips. Backdoor two pair / trips is kind of a hilarious draw in NLHE, but it can account for a non-negligible part (often a couple %) of equities in PLO.
Anyway, what you have to do to learn equities in PLO is run a lot of sims and look at how various hands do against various ranges. For example, the equity of a non-nut draw can vary drastically depending on the proportion of the opposing range made of dominating draws. In NLHE, this isn't a big concern, but it's impossible to ignore in PLO.
The common thread is that it's very often not possible to accurately predict how many outs you have in a simple fashion.
Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 08-23-2015 at 03:51 AM.