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Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River

07-06-2020 , 06:50 PM
I normally play $5/$5 PLO or Mixed (PLO/BigO) but some friends started a .30/.60 on the Bros during quarantine and we've been having some fun times on there.

Most players are not that good, I'm one of the best players by far (most experienced and have a good feel for position and determining ranges; most are NL players trying to transition), and for this weeks session I was playing+running like God.

The game is small, but the stacks can get OK with the rebuys (multiple guys have $300+ late in the game). I bought in for $40 and got it as high as $400 but was down to $320 when the following hand happened:

Had been playing for close to 3 hours and was starting to fall asleep (only 1040pm PST but I woke up at 5am and worked out twice that day plus a full day of work so just dead tired), so told everyone I was done at 11. At that time we were 6-handed and most guys were playing super-loose, lot of wide calls OOP.

1058pm and I get JJ86 double-suited in the cut-off - two limpers so I limp, button limps, SB completes, BB makes it $3 and we all call ($18 in the pot).

Flop = J-4-3 rainbow

It checks around to me and I let the timer run down 15 seconds then go full pot (don't think I want to let too many people draw without getting max value and have a pretty good feel on that flop that you will only get called by wraps).

SB calls (has around $180 left) and that's it - he's a solid player but has been running terrible this session and can't seem to find a good spot (unlucky I'd say, not playing bad), so that pot is $54 for the turn.

Turn = 3 diamonds (backdoor flush on board)

Board = J-4-3-3

SB leads $36 and I decide to flat, since I don't want to raise him off a bluff (SPR is going to be 1:1 on the river), pot is now $126.

River = 3

Board = J-4-3-3-3

SB instantly leads full pot for $126 (only has $10 behind). I call.

Thoughts as played - is this the best line to take? Anything you'd do different?
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-06-2020 , 10:04 PM
Bad title, and yeh there are a lot of reasons why villain has a random 3 here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SocraticGambler
have a pretty good feel on that flop that you will only get called by wraps
When ranges get wider there are less wraps, and way more J4/J3/43 hands. So you really think everyone just snap folds two pair (even as bad as 43 hands they called pre. with) on J43r?

Turn, in theory villain can be semi bluffing with straight+diamonds and maybe even didn't notice it was a 2nd 3. Other obvious candidates are that he has a draw with a 3 or made FH with 44/J3/43.

River what is villain bluffing with Jd6d54/AdJ6d5? Is he overvaluing AAd65d or 44 hands? And I don't see how his range isn't full of 3 hands. Of course I remember close to 100% of the hands where I knew he had quads and called anyway, and much less of them where I called and villain had 44.

If I'm as tired as you suggest I probably shrug call GTO. If I'm playing small stakes against friends also more likely to just shrug and call for a good story.
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-07-2020 , 03:05 AM
Pot on flop might be overkill - but ok.

Calling turn looks good - allows villains to keep bluffing, without losing much value from worse boats/trips.

On this particular river - villain may be so heavily weighted to 3x hands that fold is correct - its quite a hard laydown to find, but should be correct vs many opponents. Especiallly if they never take this line with 44xx or have wilder bluffs / misplayed hands (decides to bet overpair on turn got example) in range.
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-07-2020 , 12:48 PM
Raise pre

Don't pot flop

He always has the 3 and we're always calling
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-07-2020 , 01:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loctus
He always has the 3 and we're always calling
Not sure why you'd call if he always has a 3. I'd always fold here because you're correct that he always has a 3.

Spoiler:
this it's a fairly easy fold tbh
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-11-2020 , 01:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
If I'm as tired as you suggest I probably shrug call GTO. If I'm playing small stakes against friends also more likely to just shrug and call for a good story.
That was my thinking at the time - I was being exploited since they knew it was my last hand and there was higher FE to bluff me (making it even more likely to be a missed wrap). Just kind of a cooler I feel like (SPR being 1:1, last hand of the night dynamics) but was interested to see what you guys thought.

I never didn't think he couldn't have a 3, just that as played I have to pay it off with the dynamics of the situation. Maybe I cold-decked myself by announcing I was leaving - that always seems to happen lol
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-20-2020 , 12:08 PM
Like others, I'm not crazy about flop sizing.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a range for villain that calls flop, leads turn, and is still weighted heavily enough with quads that we need to find a fold.
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-20-2020 , 05:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartianGale
Like others, I'm not crazy about flop sizing.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a range for villain that calls flop, leads turn, and is still weighted heavily enough with quads that we need to find a fold.
Yeah I typically would bet either 2/3 or 3/4 pot, think the sizing got away from me because of dynamics (last hand of the night, multiple players knowingly playing loose against me, etc.).

Knowing villain personally and having played with him for years he is capable of bluffing and likes to play loose in smaller games (to him this is basically no money, he plays in $5/$5 games typically). He of course had the 3 but he mis-read his hand when he called my flop-bet thinking he had 356x (bottom pair + open-ended). He actually had 367x for a bottom pair + gut-shot and was drawing to one out on the turn. I asked him if he would've bluffed river without the 3 and he said 50/50, so I think it's just a nightmare spot of my own making.
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-21-2020 , 09:05 AM
Why is potting this flop with top set bad? what sizing would be preferable

J43-pot flop bad
how bout j104?
what about Aj9?

thanks
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-27-2020 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 307
Why is potting this flop with top set bad? what sizing would be preferable

J43-pot flop bad
how bout j104?
what about Aj9?

thanks
I think the argument against going pot on the flop is:

Wraps will call or check-raise and you have no FE against those hands, so you are just bloating the pot without other draws (all we have is top set). If it comes an A2567 on the turn we could be getting stacked and by putting in a pot-sized bet we make it so we have to over-ship the turn to a lead (since we wouldn't get paid if board pairs river and we flat). It kind of makes you play your hand face-up and doesn't maximize value when you do dominate.

J104 is pretty similar flop and maybe even worse (since AKQ/KQ9/987x type hands are more frequent then 4567/A256). AJ9 again there are so many wraps with KQ10x/Q108x it's just not a spot where you dominate (and could be against AA with that board).

It's just a tricky spot, why hitting top set in Omaha isn't all that amazing a spot at times.
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote
07-27-2020 , 04:25 PM
Think about your range, how much of it wants to bet pot on J43r? Does AKJ2 want to just click pot and make the pot as big as possible?

JT4r is different because your range should hit it much harder, although you might still not want to just click pot with all JJ hands (usually differentiate sizing based on backdoor flushes or side cards to make a straight).
Nut Full House, Opponent Leads River Quote

      
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