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Nitty fold river Nitty fold river

05-26-2018 , 10:35 AM
iPoker - €1 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 269.2 BB
BTN: 235.3 BB (VPIP: 50.53, PFR: 18.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.35, Hands: 7,871)
SB: 39.31 BB (VPIP: 46.93, PFR: 26.68, 3Bet Preflop: 11.07, Hands: 743)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T A A J

BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) A 5 3
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 7 BB, fold, Hero raises to 30 BB, BTN calls 23 BB

Turn: (69 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 69 BB, BTN calls 69 BB

River: (207 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 133.3 BB, fold

BTN wins 205.75 BB

Played this hand terrible, until the river I'm not sure



BU good reg, SB passive fish

Preflop

Bad call

We are deep BU and me, and I don't like to play deep oop vs him

However, even if rainbow, my AAJT is still a very good hand with decent playability and it's a must 3bet i guess

Moreover with BB shortstacking, who has coldcall and could sometimes just 4bet-gamble it preflop with not much stack behind and a pot already big

Flop

Now I flopped it and my top set is quite hidden, i should better played it more trappish and not c/r that loud.
Let villain the possibility of barrel-bluff. This board is not too drawy (FD where I block one out, and some low straights.

When he calls ip, it can be Axxx w OC + (N)FD, nut oesd/wrap (46xx sometimes, 467x), FD + nut GS (67xx + FD), DP calling and decide turn, even lowerset softplaying, straight flopped and slowplaying/softplaying

Turn

Good blank, not opening very draws.

Can't do anything but pot it I guess

When he calls, I think his Axxx + FD are often folding, same for the bare oesd, DP max will sometime call one second barrel and decide river (but I'm blocking AA, so it's rare.

His range is mostly wrap 467x, sometimes oesd+FD ip (46xx + FD) and some GS flopped + FD (67xx + FD) that maybe improved a little here (678x+FD)

River

bad river.

worst river would be 2 and 7, and , but this river sucks too

I means more of his range to be wraps 467x, and some GS+FD flopped (67xx + FD). And this river is completting those draws.

I don't think he would bet here his DP/low set that would be here (he got showdown value, and not many FE he's sure I'm on a better hand)
The only hand he could bluff here is 46xx + FD

The SPR is quite low here (0.6).
Good odds and maybe I will be to exploitable when I fold here.
But odds I'm not sure I'm good often enough to call here

And folding here, he wouldn't see that I chicken coldcalled those AAJT preflop
Nitty fold river Quote
05-29-2018 , 08:55 PM
Flatting pre is fine deep but obviously at sub 100bb eff. You should 3b with a high frequency.
Nitty fold river Quote
05-29-2018 , 11:25 PM
Easiest thing to do is just shove river and hope you get tank-called instead of snap-called.

It’s a legit tricky spot though since a “good reg” probably isn’t stacking off with less than a set here too often. 24 is unlikely since villain would want to protect on that blank turn, and the psb is nice and juicy to shove on. But yeah, 67 is staring you in the face. That said your river check looks a lot like a give up, though you could still have showdown value with an ace or weak 2pair, meaning villain might be enticed to either bluff missed clubs, or value bet thin.

I think your choice depends on what kind of reg villain exactly is. Lots of nittier regs aren’t really thrilled with the idea of putting 100bbs in as either a bluff or thin value and probably won’t make too many light calls either. They’ll probably be thrilled to check anything worse to showdown. So I think you can actually safely c/f there.

Vs tougher ones your river check really puts you in an ugly spot. You generally don’t want to get in the habit of making large thin value shoves to avoid tough river spots but I think it’s OK here.
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05-29-2018 , 11:43 PM
River is a call, villain is going to be value cutting himself or bluffing at least 30% of the time.
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06-02-2018 , 07:00 PM
This line just looks horrific
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06-05-2018 , 09:44 PM
Not nitty fold,just very bad.
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06-05-2018 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NMcNasty
Vs tougher ones your river check really puts you in an ugly spot. You generally don’t want to get in the habit of making large thin value shoves to avoid tough river spots but I think it’s OK here.
Yeah, this sounds like a genre of really bad reasoning that has us turning all our bluff catchers into bluffs that will never fold out anything better. And you seem to recognize it sounds like that! So, since I'm not good at PLO, I'm curious what you find different about this situation.

I think a shove is OK viewed from a value perspective--if we're going to check/call anyway because we don't feel we can check/fold, we may as well get value from sets or A9 that would otherwise check it down. Classic "lose the same when behind but make more when ahead," river situation.

Obviously that depends on whether we can check to induce though. Does 50c-€1 "good reg" bluff a lot here? If so then check-call is fine.

In certain games a blocking bet of like 1/3 pot is almost certain to work because no one would dream of raising without the nuts. But in this hand you have the third nuts and would be blocking against precisely the slowplayed 42 wheel, and it's a bad board to slowplay twice.


Given reads and the fact that a busted club draw is much more likely than 76 or slowplayed 42 I'd probably check to induce, but treating as "an ugly spot" and shoving is promoting a bad mentality. If we can get full value from our opponent's worthless hand then it's a beautiful spot.

Last edited by AKQJ10; 06-05-2018 at 11:21 PM.
Nitty fold river Quote
06-05-2018 , 11:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ManuR
The SPR is quite low here (0.6).
Good odds and maybe I will be [too] exploitable when I fold here.
Yes, betting the second nuts, now third nuts down to the river and then check-folding on a board where the first nuts is unlikely is pretty damn exploitable.

Thinking about GTO is fine to help grow the way you think about poker but using GTO as your primary lens is pretty bad if you play small stakes poker. (Assuming this is 0.50 - 1 EUR blinds right?) Obviously check-folding here is highly exploitable but is your opponent going to exploit it? You know the players at these stakes better than I do.
Nitty fold river Quote
06-06-2018 , 07:20 AM
3bet 100% pot pre

70% pot / call flop / or just jam over his raise if he does raise - both are fine - I kind of like jamming slightly better.

check jam turn if he raises your pot otherwise bet 85% for value if he just calls flop

River is tough - I highly doubt he is bluffing this river the way you played it unless he is insane. That river doesn't make a lot of straights except for maybe 4678cc and I just don't see that here enough. I guess I might call it and expect to lose like 60% of the time.

It looks like he missed clubs and is trying to buy it - or he has a wrap with a flush draw. I don't see him having it here all that often, but he does sometimes. Still no idea why you didn't 3bet pre.
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06-07-2018 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
Yeah, this sounds like a genre of really bad reasoning that has us turning all our bluff catchers into bluffs that will never fold out anything better. And you seem to recognize it sounds like that! So, since I'm not good at PLO, I'm curious what you find different about this situation.
Well obv we shouldn’t shove unless we have *some* thin value, and I’m pretty sure we do. We shouldn’t just compare EV of check/calling to shoving though, we also need to compare it to check/folding which is a non-zero EV since there’s a significant chance it goes check/check. If villain isn’t bluffing enough that check/call is good then we want villain to be bluffing as little as possible. This will happen for a nitty player, they might be bluffing as low as 5% here (there are plenty of players too scared to stick a full stack in as a pure bluff) so our c/f EV is pretty high. Vs a tougher player, but not a maniac, he might be bluffing 25% or so, so our c/f EV is low (he bluffs us off more hands but enough that we punish by calling). So it might be the case that our value-shove EV is the same vs both players, but our check/fold is better than it vs the nit, but not vs the tough aggro.

C/c is perfectly legitimate vs lots of aggressive players though, and certainly less exploitable than c/f. But this is a deep spot with a non-standard line and is very player dependent. Overall it’s pretty rare, I don’t think balance matters too much here.
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06-09-2018 , 11:12 AM
three betting preflop would be a huge mistake.
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06-12-2018 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
three betting preflop would be a huge mistake.
no it's actually quite close.

it depends on the rest of your strategy. if your opponents have no concept of SPR and will stack of 300BB deep with a under full or second straight no redraw, then dont 3bet at all, just nut peddle and get paid of with your nuts.

also depends on how they play in position. if they never 3bet they might be quite uncomfortable playing a 3bet pot. then i'd 3bet the living bajeezus out of them (we're talking like 30-35%)
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06-16-2018 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by organdonor4cash
no it's actually quite close.

it depends on the rest of your strategy. if your opponents have no concept of SPR and will stack of 300BB deep with a under full or second straight no redraw, then dont 3bet at all, just nut peddle and get paid of with your nuts.

also depends on how they play in position. if they never 3bet they might be quite uncomfortable playing a 3bet pot. then i'd 3bet the living bajeezus out of them (we're talking like 30-35%)
If SB wasn't here I would agree.

But with SB short stacking, and BTN likely to flat our 3bet, 3betting with a wide range is mandatory.

If BTN has any bluffs in his 4bet range (like AKK) or if BTN flats and SB 4bets, we are literally printing money here / this is an incredibly high EV spot.
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06-17-2018 , 03:56 AM
AKK wouldn't be a four bet bluff but rather a "wide four bet for value". I believe what you meant to say is "if BTN four bets any non-AA hand". The only hand that beats AKK is AA, so it would be nonsensical to bluff with this hand preflop, since obviously AA is never folding pre because it is the nuts.
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06-27-2018 , 04:29 PM
Call river.
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