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playing dangerous rivers oop playing dangerous rivers oop

05-11-2013 , 11:49 AM
not sure how to play this river, villain looks like they are drawing:
29/22 stats, usually aggressive at 3.0

I'm really not sure whether to bet but checking I basically give up the pot:

[hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #17379521

BTN: $103.14 (103.1 bb)
Hero (SB): $172.55 (172.6 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $122.57 (122.6 bb)
MP: $251.43 (251.4 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q 8 J K
3 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($8) J 5 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7, Hero raises to $21, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $33, BTN calls $33

River: ($116) T[color="blue"] (2 players)
playing dangerous rivers oop Quote
05-11-2013 , 01:12 PM
Hardly any good draws have hit, except for AKT/pair+98. So he's unlikely to bluff with SPR<0.5 if you check to him. You're blocking the top two sets and the broadway, while the three bottom sets are improbable. Shove for thin value and pray to get called by worse 2-pair. Also, 3-bet pre.
playing dangerous rivers oop Quote
05-11-2013 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
3-bet pre.
^^^^
Bet closer to pot on the flop. OOP we would usually just rather end the hand if we can. Turn same. If we're ahead on the flop, we're ahead on the turn and we lower the spr to the point that it would be a mistake to c/f river.
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05-11-2013 , 04:53 PM
He's not bluffing $44 into $116 often. I'd shove.

That said if you pot flop and turn you could put in most of his stack by turn.
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05-11-2013 , 06:02 PM
I agree with all above. 3bet pre. As played, river isn't scary. shove river.

Not potting turn is a big mistake IMO. Pretty much whenever you have no b/f range, you should bet pot, esp. OOP. Obviously, on this turn you have no b/f range (not with this sizing, anyway), so you should be betting pot.
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05-11-2013 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldodo42
Pretty much whenever you have no b/f range, you should bet pot, esp. OOP.
But to a reg, potting may be a sizing tell stating that I have no b/f range... and that's why I and many other fishes pot/fold quite a bit with low SPRs But in general, I see nothing criminal in betting less with the entire range to create some river fold equity with king high in case villain's pair+draw busts.
playing dangerous rivers oop Quote
05-11-2013 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
But to a reg, potting may be a sizing tell stating that I have no b/f range... and that's why I and many other fishes pot/fold quite a bit with low SPRs But in general, I see nothing criminal in betting less with the entire range to create some river fold equity with king high in case villain's pair+draw busts.
Generally people bet the pot when they are trying to protect something?
what's wrong with 33 into a 50 pot, it's still charging for draws isn;t it?
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05-11-2013 , 06:51 PM
Oops, I've just noticed that it was NLO so you could just shove the turn to get maximum value from combodraws like AKQ with spades. There's so little left after you 2/3 the turn that I think everything that would call this bet would call a shove as well. If you want three streets, b/c $25 ott, that will still be a bad price for bare FDs if you plan to c/f on spade rivers, but that's a poor idea vs an aggro reg.

Last edited by coon74; 05-11-2013 at 06:56 PM.
playing dangerous rivers oop Quote
05-11-2013 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74
But to a reg, potting may be a sizing tell stating that I have no b/f range...
All I said was that when you have no b/f range you should generally be potting it. Not that when you pot it, you shouldn't have a b/f range.

Situations where you don't have a b/f range are usually self-evident, like making a bet OTT when the SPR is going to be 0.3 if called. If a player has no bet/folding range when there's a significant amount of money behind, then either they're playing a fish, or they are the fish.
playing dangerous rivers oop Quote
05-11-2013 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bentley
Generally people bet the pot when they are trying to protect something?
what's wrong with 33 into a 50 pot, it's still charging for draws isn;t it?
Kinda. Depends on what the 7s did for villain on turn. Assuming he's suited, ~25% of the time, that gives him a fd to go with what we think is probably an oesd, maybe Pair +oesd. If he had a wrap, he is probably shoving.

Anyway, if he has fd and oesd, he has ~37% and he needs only 28% with the way you bet. If this was pot limit, we couldn't shut him out even by potting,but if the spade doesn't give him a fd and he has pair+oesd, he has ~27% and potting would give him incorrect odds.

But the real point of potting is what Eldodo said about getting the spr as low as possible so that we are never folding river.
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05-12-2013 , 08:09 AM
It was PLO, something wrong with the converter...
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