Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum

06-15-2018 , 02:51 AM
Aria $1-2 ($5 to limp in) PLO
9 handed

Stacks ($500 max buyin):
Me: $600
Maniac UTG: $500
BB: $350
A couple of others cover me.

BB is a middle aged white male, maybe 50s, probably tourist, has been here an hour. SPECULATIVE READ: Seems like a pretty typical and straightforward player. Default read is this kind of player is often playing "make a hand poker"; may overvalue non-nut draws but play somewhat scared with non-nut made hands.

Maniac pots to $15. EP and MP call. I'm in CO with AT86. I call. BB calls.

Flop ($76 minus $5 rake)
QcTd4s


All check. I check.

Turn
Tc


I have trips top kicker and an overcard draw at 2nd boat.
All check to me. ?????

I bet $45. I'm probably best but there are a lot of draws I'd like to fold. I don't want to bet so little that good players play back at me. Frankly if the maniac check raises I'm probably willing to stack off so that could argue for a smaller bet.

BB calls, others fold.

River ($161 pot, $240 eff stack)
8d


I have the third nut full house.
BB bets $100. ?????

Spoiler:

If my read is correct that's 90% QQ or TQ (latter much less likely), 5% another T8, 3% a hand worse than me value betting, 2% a stone bluff. In particular this would be a common recreational player's line with a near-nut hand: Either slowplay or miss a check raise on the flop; fill up and slowplay because he feels good about not getting outdrawn on the turn; lead for 60% pot OOP on the river because he's now worried about missing value.

But my read is speculative. What if I'm somewhat wrong? There's a bit more chance he could be value betting worse or the same (strange line with T4, backed into a hand with 88, bet another T8 for value) and occasionally just fire a random bluff after missing something
What if I'm very wrong? He should perceive my turn bet as a stab against which he can occasionally reverse-float, hoping to bluff me off many pair (technically two pair) and trips hands. Note my turn play is intentionally unbalanced; I actually think a reverse float here would be great against my turn range. Very few non-maniac live $1-2 players are playing this line here, especially with three who checked still behind.

I'm getting about 8:3 = 2.67 to 1; break even equity is 27%. I called but now I think it's a moderately clear fold.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 02:54 AM
Result:

Spoiler:
QQ, duh. If it hadn't been, would I post this hand?

Well, actually I hope I would have. I would be interested in hearing of examples of calls like this where it wasn't the nuts; or of parameters we could tweak besides the obvious "BB is an unpredictable maniac" to make a call correct here.


By the way I wouldn't dream of calling that hand pre without position, somewhat deep stacks, and a player in the game who'll stack off with non-nut flushes. Maybe if two of the three are present.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 05:56 AM
I like a call, villain could show up with J9 and you are getting a decent price.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 09:08 AM
Seems a weird way to play QQ or QT, but a "normal" way to play 88cc, J988 or T8 ... so I probably call without thinking much more about it.

I don't expect him to have bluffs roughly ever, so it's more interesting what to do with QT ... but I guess we just go broke.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 09:33 AM
I don't see how villain's line is weird with QQ or QT. Five way I do prefer a bet with these hands, but first to act with PFR who is also a maniac on your immediate left going for the check raise on the flop is a pretty attractive option, and then with the nut / second nut full on turn check/call is again quite reasonable.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
then with the nut / second nut full on turn check/call is again quite reasonable.
And then lead the river when not much changes because stopping bluffs, getting AT to fold and setting fire to 100bb+ from value hands is gg?

I mean it's obviously not _that_ weird, given villain did it. But generally I assume that when a card hits and villain does something unexpected, it's because that card has some meaning to them.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
And then lead the river when not much changes because stopping bluffs, getting AT to fold and setting fire to 100bb+ from value hands is gg?
Your reasoning is correct but light years ahead of how the typical recreational 1-2-5 player thinks. Against those players you're just leveling yourself.

But what makes this particular spot harder is that there's a big difference between my speculative read on Villain and a firm read. We should talk more about the theoretical implications uncertainty in reads; Ed Miller has been writing about second-order uncertainty recently in Card Player. The upshot is basically call more when you have uncertainty about your ranges.

Appreciate the insights. I'm downgrading my call from "moderate mistake" to "marginal mistake" based on responses.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 02:53 PM
I think villain's line can actually make sense as part of a good strategy. MW pots are weird. BB calls our turn bet with the rest of field still in the pot (strongest continuing range after this action) with the maniac in the pot (even a small % of the maniac fooling around disincentivizes the BB fastplaying anything). So the BB's range should be noticeably stronger than the BTN's here prior to action -- which wouldn't happen in a HU pot. His range is also uncapped, whereas BTN really should bet all QQ/QT on the flop. So BB's range should be lead-heavy on most rivers, even blank ones.

So I'd consider it 'villain playing well by accident (because surely he's not thinking about all that)' .
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-15-2018 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
And then lead the river when not much changes because stopping bluffs, getting AT to fold and setting fire to 100bb+ from value hands is gg?
Most people don't bluff in five way pots for good reason. There are tons of hands that will take a free showdown that villain can get value out of, AT being a solid example of such.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-16-2018 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Most people don't bluff in five way pots for good reason. There are tons of hands that will take a free showdown that villain can get value out of, AT being a solid example of such.

This.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-17-2018 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Most people don't bluff in five way pots for good reason. There are tons of hands that will take a free showdown that villain can get value out of, AT being a solid example of such.
Except AT shouldn't be calling a river bet facing this line anyway so you aren't missing out on value by betting.

All boats are value-betting when checked too, so by checking with QQ you gain the value of their bet (similar to the value of your lead) + the possibility that won't be able to get away from some boats after you raise - particularly QT which is going to be very hard/impossible to get away from. Although admittedly QT is a very small part of hero's range after he checks back flop.
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote
06-25-2018 , 04:55 AM
Not enough info in OP to convince me hero should fold, i might even go for some thin raise-folds.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
Live <img -2(-5): The classic &quot;Turn a full house, face the tourist's river donk&quot; conundrum Quote

      
m