So much wrong with this analysis. First is the assumption of how wide villain is opening to a pot sizing; it's a 9.80 tournament. Most players don't go super aggro with big-stacks even when they could. They'll open up, but certainly not expecting to see much wider than 50% and could be less for that sizing. And if they are good it will be less anyway bc SB is short and could jam pretty wide.

Secondly is using his 50% pf range to determine our flop equity when villain has decided to pot. Most players pot bet sizing is typically a v strong range and our hand does very poorly against that range - hands we could expect to see from someone that pots: Qx + high FD (likely that beats ours), sets, 2 pair, AA + FD or even just an A high FD - we're in bad shape across the board

Thirdly is using our equity only to decide whether calling is correct because it's a lot more difficult to realise our equity when we hold non-nut draws - we will make mistakes like calling or folding incorrectly if we hit a flush or just folding a blank turn when TT happens to be good vs Ahxh that has bricked so far.

Admittedly I don't have much experience at $10 or less PLO tourneys but I find it hard to believe that its so soft that as a default we should assume button has variable open sizing. Also 50% is not a "super aggro" open from the button in any game.

As for your second and third points they sort of run together, and I already made it clear I wasn't saying our equity vs his range is exactly the equity we have. Point is just to show how far ahead we are as a starting point. Not sure there's any spot in PLO where we have ~60% on the flop but its still correct to check-fold to a cbet when we're readless. Same goes for 50% or even 45%. The only way to get down to 30s where its arguable (but not automatic) that we should fold is if we assign a comically tight range due to his sizing, which I guess is the route you want to go:

Not much to say really. You're just reading into the pot-sizings way too hard. You have any kind of read, OK, but you don't. Just not that uncommon of a bet size to play so nitty against.

We have a very healthy stack, and great position relative to the other two bigger stacks at our table. Depending on the stack sizes of the players on the other tables, folding pre is more than fine.

Calling or 3bets are also options as btn should be opening 90%+ in this spot.

On the flop, we may have 50% equity, and correct me if I'm wrong, but with ICM, that's not enough equity to continue.

If we do call turn though, I don't think jamming turn is awful or spew. You'll get folds about 50% of the time, and you still have 25% equity against a calling range.

Thanks for all the input guys.

This hand is trash. All this talk about getting it in as a 2-1 dog on the turn against a very very wide range with 14 left to go is ******ed.

There are two ways to play this hand

1) Fold pre
2) 3bet pre and jam flop

I would much prefer a hand without a med pair in it to 3bet, but if you're going to play for gods sakes don't call. Calling is idiotic.

Not sure about this one

Well think about flops here the vast majority of the time were just gonna be check folding. Basically any J hi+ board and anything lower than a T is bad for our hand. Even a K hi board we have a T kicker. The hand is crap which is why I say 3bet it vs. A wider range or fold. Calling makes future streets that much more difficult and the hand much less profitable since we c/f so often

Also the concept that randoms are opening 50% on the button at $10 tournaments is crazy. People are final table bubble scared and ranged are tighter than that

I guess I defend pre and fold to the psb flop cb but I'm a nit