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Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic
First is the assumption of how wide villain is opening to a pot sizing; it's a 9.80 tournament. Most players don't go super aggro with big-stacks even when they could. They'll open up, but certainly not expecting to see much wider than 50% and could be less for that sizing. And if they are good it will be less anyway bc SB is short and could jam pretty wide.
Admittedly I don't have much experience at $10 or less PLO tourneys but I find it hard to believe that its so soft that
as a default we should assume button has variable open sizing. Also 50% is not a "super aggro" open from the button in any game.
As for your second and third points they sort of run together, and I already made it clear I wasn't saying our equity vs his range is exactly the equity we have. Point is just to show how far ahead we are as a starting point. Not sure there's any spot in PLO where we have ~60% on the flop but its still correct to check-fold to a cbet when we're readless. Same goes for 50% or even 45%. The only way to get down to 30s where its arguable (but not automatic) that we should fold is if we assign a comically tight range due to his sizing, which I guess is the route you want to go:
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hands we could expect to see from someone that pots: Qx + high FD (likely that beats ours), sets, 2 pair, AA + FD or even just an A high FD
Not much to say really. You're just reading into the pot-sizings way too hard. You have any kind of read, OK, but you don't. Just not that uncommon of a bet size to play so nitty against.