Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
Probably fold pre. I call with the suited ace. Call isn't terrible, because while we have bad absolute position we have good relative position to the pre flop raiser.
Check flop. Our hand is strong, but hard to get called by a lot worse and we're going to be in a position to win a big pot v. a flush if we make a boat. We also don't want to get raised by one of the pre-flop callers, who easily could have 99 or 95.
Any stats/reads on UTG? Once UTG raises and it folds around I probably shove flop, as I like our hand a lot more against the PFR in what is now a head's up pot. There shouldn't be a lot of 99/95 in an UTG range, and PLO players are known to overplay overpairs, especially AA. Would certainly prefer re-raise flop to donking turn, as you're just giving him another card to catch up by donking blank turns.
I think donking is great here and our hand is kind of weak with only a 5 on turn or runner runner overcard improving it. This is going to get checked through often but we need protection, we have the range advantage, and we're in a position where our opponents will play their hand honestly.
If villain raises all full houses, trips with ace, trips with hearts, and QQ-AA with nut hearts vs our donk bet, we're not pushing any equity. If we start adding a 9 into villains overpair range our equity drops as low as 32%, and if we remove them we're crushed.
If we're called it puts us in a way better position to play the turn than if we check call or it checks through. Check through is a disaster if a heart hits or if an A/J/Q comes and an opponent bets, and if we check/call we are almost always putting money in behind or against the same hand with a redraw, some turns and most rivers would have to be a fold.
This are the reasons why donk/fold looks like the best line to me.