Hi all,

2/2 PLO5 MDLive. Hero calls UTG straddle OTB with AhQxTs9h6s. V is unknown, seen him around the past couple days (50 y/o black gentleman). Hero is eff. with $200. Six ways to a flop of:

Flop ($30): 8c-Jd-Qd. SB/V leads pot, only hero calls.

Turn ($90): 2s. V pot $90, hero calls. Good spot to jam on equity shifting turn?

River ($270): 3d, completing front door flush. V checks, hero with $80 behind.

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I played a couple other hands AI otf that I lost or chopped, two were flopped sets that lost to the draw, one was combo draw that lost to top two, and one AI pre with KQJT6ds I just 4! jammed $130 eff. against a 3!. All these were just variance I think. Still, sucks to start off my post-shutdown sessions stuck $900 at PLO5!

Thanks,
DT

I have been playing live for 15 years and never once has someone's race come into play in any way whatsoever.

Jam the river

Jam turn

As played id probably check back, dont think he’s folding a chop anyway and we have no diamond blocker

Why are you flatting turn with < 1/3 pot behind?

Hate life and put it in on turn

Yeah so bad to flat turn. I jammed river he tank called with Q flush. Also agree with racial stereotypes being way overrated in this game and honestly off color. Just bad habit I picked up from LLSNL forum.

LOL, was he freerolling you on turn? Feels like call/call/shove any river might be better if he's thinking about it with 3rd nuts for ⅓ pot.

WTF is this?
Turn flat with the nuts with 1/2 potsize bet left, is this real?

I don't hate it as long as we never do anything that isn't sticking all the money in on the river

Yeah why are you trying to slow play use deception on the turn? You must of being looking at the male model that walked past and got distracted. Read theory of poker again and learn to win the big pots right away.

I wonder if you say "female model" to people who you think are straight .

He's not slow playing. Obviously Dumbo's looking for a safe river because he's a nit and is likely a chopped pot.

I got gaydar.

You’re all wrong; due to the shutdown, I’m asexual. Funny this comes up because I was just called a ****** in the poker room today again by the same guy. He’s banned. I guess he had gaydar too.

@wazz I understand this play, if he would be deeper say 300BB and pot is 100BB. But for only 1/2 potsize bet, you have to get it in here.
There was one guy today in my local casino, who flopped broadway in a 240 ante pot, one guy in front moved in and he openfolded because of 2 diamonds on board and the possibility a flush could appear and he could lose..LOL

Even that guy who got banned is at best a sinner at the end of the day. Him being cruel is just destroying himself getting himself banned from places.

This thread has somehow become the most intersectional of 2020

Honestly, calling the turn might be the best play. People make big mistakes in very low SPR situations. Our redraw isn't worth much, and he's likely got two between the set, AKT, and flush draw, or the actual straight with some sort of redraw, so it's not like we're a big equity favourite and are commonly behind.

I don’t get it. Why call turn and jam this river?

Like we call turn because we probably fear that opponent’s entire range is T9 and stuff, and that we’re freerolling ourselves.

Then said flush draw arrives and now we jam?

If this is the kind of guy we can fold off a chop for this little, then whatever. But I can’t imagine he ever folds a flush, and using the hypergeometric distribution (42 unknown cards, 10 diamonds), P(2 or more diamonds in 5 card hand) is .34.

This being said, if he has a bare straight 66% of the time, we can formulate this as

.34: callled and lose extra $80
.66 - F: called and win extra $0
F: get fold and win extra $135

135F = 80 * .34

F ~ .2015, call it 20%

So if he has chop 66% and folds 20% of that 66%, we only need him to fold a chop 30% of the time for this play to be good.

This being said, it’s such a small bet and we have no flush blockers at all. And blockers really make a difference: having just one diamond in our hand reduces the chance of him having 2 or more from .34 to .288.

So now do the simple game tree of this

.288: called and lose an extra $80
.712 - F: called and win an extra $0
F: get fold and win an extra $135

135*F = .288*80

F ~ .1707, call it 17%

So now we only need him to have a chop and fold it 17% to break even with the blocker. And since he has a chop around 71.2%, now he only needs to fold a chop 23.9% instead of 30%. These matter a lot when you have these situations come up frequently (and in live Omaha games, people usually play their value very ABC so you will run into situations where you’ll be up against obvious chops on bad rivers).


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When there's this much money in the pot, and he checks, having potted flop and turn, I'm less interested in him folding a flush than I am him folding a chop or calling worse.