I harvested this hand from 1/2 zoom on pokerstars. The guy in the BB is a winning reg , not sure about the guy in the SB but his plays looked solid to me.



I find the bluff on the river very interesting. And actually i believe it to be a very profitable play. I havent done the EV calcs yet but thats just what my intuition tells me. Is this spot standard for turning KK into a bluff?

The call is much easier with the 8 in our hand but still a great call. What you guys think? Would you play the hand differently?

3betting this hand from the sb against an mp open and potting that flop 3 way doesnt look so solid to me.

I would not say that it is a great spot, the main problem is that the six really does nothing to improve BB:s range and that BB has a hand with enough showdown value to not need to fold out missed draws etc. BB is more or less representing 85xx, since I think most 65xx combos would GII on the turn with only 250 more behind. But why would 85xx cold-call the turn? 85xx with a club redraw maybe? Also, would BB ever go for thin value with something like 99xx or 97xx here on this board? Quite doubtful (and SB blocks these combos).

Also SB gets very good pot odds since BB has so little left. Had it been a full PSB it would have a better chance of working.

Of course, we have no table dynamics and history etc that might account for a lot. Also, it would be a more interesting analysis to make if you did not include results

3betting can be tricky since they are 200bb deep,would prefer ds hand when

3betting oop deep.I like very much sb play on flop and turn.BB calling on flop

is really ifi,i would probb fold for this size and considering there`s player

behind us.Turn was mandatory fold given this size,not sure what bb was thinking.On river sb is rapping really 56 hand and i am pretty sure bluff is

super bad in this spot.Sb calling on river is proving that bluff was bad:he did

not managed to bluff 2 pair hand,how do we expect to bluff 56 straight?

I´m rapping bout the 187s I do in the hood

I guess that if you're not bluffing the river with that hand there then youre like never ever bluffing the river. Because what worse hand can you end up in that river spot with? Pretty much nothing

Yap,on this run out i am never bluffing river as that`s the answer to question

is this great river bluff.

Looking forward to hear some arguments can we credibly convince our opponent we have backdoor higher straight with spr0.5.Also what hands

do we want villain to fold?

A few observations from simulating this scenario with solvers:

Solvers react counter-intuitively on this spot. They dont consider SB range much stronger than the BB range hence they dont defend close to MDF. If you give SB the option to lead the river it will do so with a big chunk of its v-range hence the times it checks the river its range will be further weakened hence it will defend even lower part of its range vs the half-SPB from the BB. Its an interesting result which suggests 2 things the first is that they dont mind being bluffed off on the river as long as they can extract more EV with the combos they ll decide to triple barrel with, and the second is that they dont try to fully balance their betting/checking range optimally or even defensively( i.e. by first making sure that they cant get exploited and only then pass on combos to the betting range)they rather take the most EV lines with their betting range and compensate by minimising losses with the remaining checking range.
I guess we havent reached a point computationally yet where we can apply a full optimisation.

Thats what i thought initially and hence thought that this spot was good for bluffing. We need to bluff occasionally here,and KK is a good hand to do so.
We can expect SB to fold almost all overpairs several two pairs and maybe few sets and bottom straight and that would suffice to make the bluff profitable.
But on second thoughts SB almost never has 93 or 94 here. So he doesnt have too many two pairs and his distribution would be more weighted to straights.
In order for this bluff to be +EV on the river we need SB to fold 1/3 of the time.

SB range distribution on the river (i gave a SB 3b range of 10% OOP PJ range):

27% straights
2% sets
18.5% two pairs
33% overpairs

So unless SB is under-defending here a bunch, it does not look a great spot to bluff.
Maybe with a KK8 type of hand and/or if there was a FSP bet left on the river(as regen said) the situation would be more clear cut for bluffing there.

What assumptions are you making? How does SB have 27% straights after checking the river?

Preflop looks loose SBvMP, otherwise WP every other decision point.

I think BB has a call otf. In general it seems like playing cc ranges vs. 3b makes life hell on later streets (such as on runout like this where BB appears super capped he would have to defend some AA or something like that vs. triple).

Turn is a clear fold.

River is a weird spot but I would be tempted to jam blocking 9x, unblocking AA, and seemingly lacking bluffing hands. We would rep QQ99 KK99 reasonably, right?

Potting for the lulz

People just overestimate blockers sometimes.If we have one 9 on 34 679 board

and our opponent was potting 2 streets 9 is absolutely irrelevant imo.I think

only hand we can possibly bluff here and that`s very questionable,cause he

will often jam bluff with that is AAxx with clubs.

Assumptions for SB's range:
preflop: 10% 3b
on the flop: 100% range bets and 0% checks
turn:50% of his range bets and 50% checks
river: 50% checks and 50% bets. And his checking range consists of: 55% calls and 45% folds.

The distribution results i listed were for the 50% checking range.
I redid the calcs and this time the results are quite different(normalised to 100%):

27.2% straights
2.3% sets
20.2% Two-Pairs
40.7% OP

Not sure why so big difference in the Over-pairs with the previous iteration maybe i was using slightly different ranges.

Btw the folding range(normalised to 45%) has:
6.6% straights
0% sets
3.6% Two-Pair
27.2% OP

And this is the SB betting range what it consists of(normalised to 50%):

25% straigths
4.5% sets
9.5% Two-pair
3% OP
6% TP
2% lower pair/A-high

it is a bad spot to bluff as SB reps some sort of strong bluffcatcher with that twobarrell play
9x blocker is a crap to bluff with bcz you don't turn top set into a bluff on a 4card str8 boards, righ?
I'd prefer 8 or 5 blocker to jam with in BB shoes, but still SB line with 3bet-pot-pot-x will include lots of bluffcatchers and FE rolling down to zirro in this spot, what will you force to fold here, AA? will AA twobarrell here? I barely believe that story except for some few combos of AA67 AA25 including clubdraws for second barrell
bad play from BB, he had to raise the flop showing strength with 99 and give up on the turn when the str8 completes lower wraps