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Folding aces pre with a solid read Folding aces pre with a solid read

04-26-2018 , 01:57 PM
The last thread reminded me of this hand not too long ago.

Live game $1-2 with a $5 bring in, 10 handed.
I'm sitting on weak AAxx with ~$900 late position. 5 limpers, it gets to me, I pot. BB reraises the pot. Early position goes all in, two callers, it gets back to me. That's a lot of money, but I know for a fact the button will only reraise aces. I have never seen him reraise anything else ever. So I assume my two outs for a set or out and I never had any shot at a nut flush or any decent straights. I actually fold because I don't think I have the equity.
This could be totally wrong, but just wondering what your thoughts are.
I mean the only shot I have with that many in the hand is for my danglers to hit big.

-d
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 07:06 AM
I don't think it's incorrect to fold the worst AAxx hands like AA83r or the like if you think you're running into a range of other AAxx & some other 4 live cards the other players behind are likely GII with, and even more so if you're super deep with your opponents. In this same situation with 100bb or less I just close my eyes and GII nothing to see here but deeper I think folding is not incorrect.
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 10:10 AM
Based on read and lack of connected cards I like the fold.
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 01:04 PM
10 handed, 5 limpers with crappy AAxx = overcall for me.

Our fold equity would be ~0 here
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 01:48 PM
Okay good, I wasn't sure if it is ever good to fold aces pre, sounds like there are some arguments for when it is okay. I was super deep along with some of the others.

I did end up folding. Not to be results oriented, but the guy who I was sure had AAxx mucked at show down and some freak straight got the pot.

Is someone able to run a simulation with say 4 players, two with aaxx and the other two with just random cards? I'm curious as to equities.

-d
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Furious_D
Okay good, I wasn't sure if it is ever good to fold aces pre, sounds like there are some arguments for when it is okay. I was super deep along with some of the others.

I did end up folding. Not to be results oriented, but the guy who I was sure had AAxx mucked at show down and some freak straight got the pot.

Is someone able to run a simulation with say 4 players, two with aaxx and the other two with just random cards? I'm curious as to equities.

-d
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
aa22.96% 82,940109,634
aa22.89% 82,593109,532
100%27.06% 158,4837,747
100%27.10% 158,7307,759
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by md46135
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
aa22.96% 82,940109,634
aa22.89% 82,593109,532
100%27.06% 158,4837,747
100%27.10% 158,7307,759
Excellent! Thank you! Ah, from your link, I can now do my own. Today keeps getting better and better LOL.

-d
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote
04-27-2018 , 04:46 PM
After playing around with this simulator, weak aces are pretty lousy especially when you can eliminate the other aces:
HandEquityWinsTies
asah7c4d16.94%97,4978,472
a18.55%104,73813,311
a18.55%104,81013,290
100%22.96%132,8829,931
100%23.00%133,08810,054

-d
Folding aces pre with a solid read Quote

      
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