Fairly deep 1/2 live spot
10-20-2020
, 01:49 PM
A very passive game filled of mostly weak players. There is one player I'd consider decent who is the villain in this hand who is the only other player deep. Both stacks ~$1000. We're 6 handed in a live game. Villain rarely gets out of line and also is the owner of the card room who sits in when games are starting.
I have T
T
7
6 on the BB.
A few limps, villain raises from CO to $15. Button folds, SB calls, I call, 2 limpers calls.
Pot ~$80.
Flop 987.
I check, EP checks, CO pots $60. SB folds. I call.
Thoughts: Villain definitely is strong. I have two tends, so discounts chance of having TJ, but if he does, I'm very likely still live to diamonds unless he has those too (and worst case I have 7d).
Turn 5
I check. He pots $200. If I call we have ~$700 behind.
Thoughts: I like the 5, it gives him more straights with hands like Adxd6x(9-7)x, so I might be ahead right now. I still have two of the jacks. Downsides- I'm not sure what I want to hit on the river (other than 7d). If the board pairs, do I shove at it to get him off TJ? If I hit a diamond, I can't bet it, and calling a big bet makes me sick.
Do I really fold the 2nd nuts with a straight flush redraw here?
What can I call on the river? Are there any non-7d hands I bet?
I have T
T76 on the BB.A few limps, villain raises from CO to $15. Button folds, SB calls, I call, 2 limpers calls.
Pot ~$80.
Flop 9
87.I check, EP checks, CO pots $60. SB folds. I call.
Thoughts: Villain definitely is strong. I have two tends, so discounts chance of having TJ, but if he does, I'm very likely still live to diamonds unless he has those too (and worst case I have 7d).
Turn 5
I check. He pots $200. If I call we have ~$700 behind.
Thoughts: I like the 5, it gives him more straights with hands like Adxd6x(9-7)x, so I might be ahead right now. I still have two of the jacks. Downsides- I'm not sure what I want to hit on the river (other than 7d). If the board pairs, do I shove at it to get him off TJ? If I hit a diamond, I can't bet it, and calling a big bet makes me sick.
Do I really fold the 2nd nuts with a straight flush redraw here?
What can I call on the river? Are there any non-7d hands I bet?
10-21-2020
, 10:59 AM
10-21-2020
, 05:03 PM
Quote:
I would fold pre as this hand plays poorly oop multi way. Our good flops give us a bad set, a bad fd, a bad wrap. That said, if the opponents are really bad we can probably make this call profitably.
When he pots 5 ways he’s going to be very nutted and I would make a tight but probably prudent fold
When he pots 5 ways he’s going to be very nutted and I would make a tight but probably prudent fold
In this particular game, people WAY overplay hands (other than this villain), so the more marginal hands end up much stronger (I've bet queen high flushes, gotten called by 2 people, and been good by a long margin). Tricky play and raises and bluffs are extremely rare in this game. My logic is if I hit a 2nd best hand, I'm going to hear about it and not lose a lot and not worry about getting bluffed.
But I realize the error of my way when the river hits:
5
My action, and what do I do if he bets big/raises (I think I have to fold in those cases).
I figure if I bet small he's calling bigger flushes and maybe the TJ if I make it something like $1-200. He's raising all boats. I don't think I get called by many worse hands if any. I don't see him bluff-raising often here.
10-22-2020
, 03:51 PM
tl;dr fold somewhere.
Everything is marginal here, without reads. Yeh, sometimes you'll hit T55 or something but mostly you'll be x/f flop and then they'll be hands like this where almost no matter what you do 100s of bb will be on fire.
Two card gap is really bad with a pair.
T high flush isn't much better than the 7 high flush and means you can't hit set+FD.
Don't use blockers like this. Having TT doesn't mean "he can never have a T".
JT and QQ+ are both really common in ranges, so you will "run into it" a lot.
At 500bb deep this should be much easier to fold than if you had 100bb, just because you almost never want to put all the money in.
You really want to be controlling the action, and in the BB you basically never will (and from previous point you can't x/r it).
Obvious "bluffs" for flop aren't crushed on the turn like:
Raising turn is bad unless villain is complete maniac. Yeh, sometimes you might be ahead but against ranges you are probably lucky to be 35% (and that implies you can play river correctly). When you raise about the only hands he calls incorrectly will be worse straights with a set or better flush draw.
Everything is marginal here, without reads. Yeh, sometimes you'll hit T55 or something but mostly you'll be x/f flop and then they'll be hands like this where almost no matter what you do 100s of bb will be on fire.
Two card gap is really bad with a pair.
T high flush isn't much better than the 7 high flush and means you can't hit set+FD.
Don't use blockers like this. Having TT doesn't mean "he can never have a T".
JT and QQ+ are both really common in ranges, so you will "run into it" a lot.
At 500bb deep this should be much easier to fold than if you had 100bb, just because you almost never want to put all the money in.
You really want to be controlling the action, and in the BB you basically never will (and from previous point you can't x/r it).
Obvious "bluffs" for flop aren't crushed on the turn like:
| ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation |
| 47,200 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: 9875 |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| TdTc7s6d | 48.56% | 20,731 | 4,374 |
| (T:dd):30% | 51.44% | 22,095 | 4,374 |
Raising turn is bad unless villain is complete maniac. Yeh, sometimes you might be ahead but against ranges you are probably lucky to be 35% (and that implies you can play river correctly). When you raise about the only hands he calls incorrectly will be worse straights with a set or better flush draw.
10-22-2020
, 03:55 PM
Quote:
tl;dr fold somewhere.
Everything is marginal here, without reads. Yeh, sometimes you'll hit T55 or something but mostly you'll be x/f flop and then they'll be hands like this where almost no matter what you do 100s of bb will be on fire.
Two card gap is really bad with a pair.
T high flush isn't much better than the 7 high flush and means you can't hit set+FD.
Don't use blockers like this. Having TT doesn't mean "he can never have a T".
JT and QQ+ are both really common in ranges, so you will "run into it" a lot.
At 500bb deep this should be much easier to fold than if you had 100bb, just because you almost never want to put all the money in.
You really want to be controlling the action, and in the BB you basically never will (and from previous point you can't x/r it).
Obvious "bluffs" for flop aren't crushed on the turn like:
Raising turn is bad unless villain is complete maniac. Yeh, sometimes you might be ahead but against ranges you are probably lucky to be 35% (and that implies you can play river correctly). When you raise about the only hands he calls incorrectly will be worse straights with a set or better flush draw.
Everything is marginal here, without reads. Yeh, sometimes you'll hit T55 or something but mostly you'll be x/f flop and then they'll be hands like this where almost no matter what you do 100s of bb will be on fire.
Two card gap is really bad with a pair.
T high flush isn't much better than the 7 high flush and means you can't hit set+FD.
Don't use blockers like this. Having TT doesn't mean "he can never have a T".
JT and QQ+ are both really common in ranges, so you will "run into it" a lot.
At 500bb deep this should be much easier to fold than if you had 100bb, just because you almost never want to put all the money in.
You really want to be controlling the action, and in the BB you basically never will (and from previous point you can't x/r it).
Obvious "bluffs" for flop aren't crushed on the turn like:
| ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation |
| 47,200 trials (Exhaustive) |
board: 9 :8:7 :5 : |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| TdTc7s6d | 48.56% | 20,731 | 4,374 |
| (T:dd):30% | 51.44% | 22,095 | 4,374 |
Raising turn is bad unless villain is complete maniac. Yeh, sometimes you might be ahead but against ranges you are probably lucky to be 35% (and that implies you can play river correctly). When you raise about the only hands he calls incorrectly will be worse straights with a set or better flush draw.
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10-23-2020
, 12:07 PM
10-24-2020
, 08:12 PM
| ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation |
| 5,143,860 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: 987 |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AcTd7s6d | 44.45% | 2,159,783 | 253,213 |
| (JT,99,88,98:dd):30% | 55.55% | 2,730,864 | 253,213 |
...if you add more stuff it changes by roughly the same amount.
Now consider that he's potting flop into 3, and then later potting turn, is he really doing that with Ad98:dd as much as he's doing it with T98:dd?
Quote:
He recently scooped a big pot to get a stack and I missed it until he put out the $200 and saw he still had piles behind. Given the way this player plays, calling the first $60 is not the worst as he tends to not overplay a lot of hands in position. I've gotten to the river cheap against him a lot of times after he takes a first stab.
Quote:
A line I didn't consider is betting out $100 on the turn, and folding to a big raise. Without the flush draw I probably bet out flop or turn and pretty easily fold to a raise. Given I really would like to get to the river and showdown, I prefer to keep it smaller here.
More theoretically what range do you donk turn $100 with? From villain's POV what changed on the turn that would make you bet? Pretty much the only value hands you are repping are super nutty ones that didn't mind if the flop went multiway or got raised by the two people behind you.
Yes, the 5 means lots of 6 hands are the 3rd nuts now ... but do you really bet that? Are there more of those in your range than his so you should donk bet?
10-24-2020
, 09:11 PM