draw to nuts flush? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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draw to nuts flush?

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01-30-2019 , 07:26 PM

PokerPlayingGamble

Dispute Unresolved

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $20.38 (81.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $6.95 (27.8 bb)
UTG: $20 (80 bb)
MP: $17.68 (70.7 bb)
CO: $21.62 (86.5 bb)
BTN: $53.25 (213 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As Th 8h 3s
UTG posts BB OOP, UTG checks, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) Ts Qs Jh (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $0.96, 2 folds, Hero ?

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01-30-2019 , 08:02 PM

HUMBLE.

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 2,010

I get it in on the flop with your stack size.

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01-30-2019 , 08:40 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

It seems very close not factoring in rake but factoring it in makes it an easy fold. This is putting in an absurd tight range though. Considering he posted UTG, he can have lots of worse fds but I'd imagine most of those are checking a 4-way pot but even then, the equity stays around the same if you add in a bunch of QsJxXxXs hands or J9 w/spades. With the ranges I put in, you're 46.3%-48%. So fold.

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01-30-2019 , 11:46 PM

PokerPlayingGamble

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

Villain is 42/6 loose passive.

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01-31-2019 , 07:47 AM

PokerPlayingGamble

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

one thing about this situation, which would be even more important if we were deeper, is that our presumed chop outs to the king aren't actually outs to chop, they are outs to freeroll.

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02-01-2019 , 09:45 AM

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,658

we have a BDFD and draw to a chop... v easy call.

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02-03-2019 , 10:01 PM

Spin2Win

banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 360

Quote:

Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic

we have a BDFD and draw to a chop... v easy call.

I don’t fold this, but at less than 30bb to start the hand would you just call or get the money in? What’s your turn plan if we just call?

Also, our trips draw, low end straight draw, and/or aces up draw have slim chances of being live, which counts for something, but they could also put us in awkward spots on turn if we just flat flop and then hit one of our non nut outs.

Final consideration is that he could potentially fold the 98 or K9 straight to a flop shove which would obv be great for us.

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02-06-2019 , 10:33 PM

the_spike

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,615

Why would you intentionally put all your money in (assuming we're not folding anyone out) when you're not a favorite in the hand? These comments make no sense. It's not stack size that's important, it's equity and pot odds.

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02-06-2019 , 10:34 PM

the_spike

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin2Win

Final consideration is that he could potentially fold the 98 or K9 straight to a flop shove which would obv be great for us.

How the heck is this gonna happen? This isn't No Limit, you can't just shove. The only way the money's going in is if he 3-bets, and if he does there's 0% chance he's folding.

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02-07-2019 , 06:48 AM

#10

PLOhohoho

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 43

I definitely just call in these spots. We need 33% equity to call. Even against AKxx,89xx, QQxx, JJxx and TTxx we have 47% equity

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02-07-2019 , 07:26 AM

#11

PokerPlayingGamble

Dispute Unresolved

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by PLOhohoho

I definitely just call in these spots. We need 33% equity to call. Even against AKxx,89xx, QQxx, JJxx and TTxx we have 47% equity

the 33% equity to call is a bit mis leading since we will presumably face another bet on the turn if we brick it, meaning we are really getting worse than 2:1 to see the river. we are 4:1 against improving to a flush by the turn.

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02-07-2019 , 10:58 AM

#12

Spin2Win

banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 360

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_spike

We have poor visibility on the turn and can easily make mistakes on the next street. Opponent can fold a better hand to a raise (two pair 98 K9) so your assumption is not necessarily correct. Finally, a payoff is ensured when we hit.

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02-07-2019 , 10:59 AM

#13

Spin2Win

banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 360

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_spike

How the heck is this gonna happen? This isn't No Limit, you can't just shove. The only way the money's going in is if he 3-bets, and if he does there's 0% chance he's folding.

Hero had less than $7 to begin hand, so a repot is effectively a shove

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02-13-2019 , 11:09 PM

#14

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,658

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin2Win

Not sure you know what poor visibility is because our hand doesn't have it on turns... spades, hearts and kings are good to continue on and anything else is bad.

89 isn't potting flop... maybe he folds K9 to a raise but I doubt it given how short we are - when he pots it too, I imagine if it is K9 it has something else to go with it.

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