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Doubt about EV Doubt about EV

12-06-2017 , 07:52 PM
How do you guys calculate the EV of this play?
I'm sure it is a +EV play, but looking at the PT4 graph, it appears as a slightly -EV play

PokerStars - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 341.9 BB (VPIP: 47.80, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 3.10, Hands: 325)
BTN: 106.1 BB (VPIP: 29.75, PFR: 9.92, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 370)
SB: 112 BB (VPIP: 87.10, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 32)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 3.26, Hands: 1,023)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 45.35, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 86)
Hero (MP): 109.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 2 A A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 9.5 BB, BTN calls 9.5 BB, SB calls 9 BB, fold, Hero raises to 48.5 BB, CO calls 39 BB, BTN calls 39 BB, SB calls 39 BB

Flop: (195 BB, 4 players) 5 J 2
SB checks, Hero bets 61 BB and is all-in, CO calls 61 BB, BTN calls 57.6 BB and is all-in, fold

Turn: (374.6 BB, 3 players) 5

River: (374.6 BB, 3 players) 5


Edit:
CO had J 9 T 7
BTN had 4 3 K K

Last edited by Mandracon; 12-06-2017 at 07:58 PM. Reason: the holdings of CO and BTN didn't appear in the original post
Doubt about EV Quote
12-06-2017 , 08:38 PM
I think you definitely want to just open fold the flop but more importantly, fix your holecard reader first man, PT4 can't calculate your range v range equity without it
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
I think you definitely want to just open fold the flop
LOL, flop play is not the discussion here. I just want to know how PT4 adjusted the all-in EV of the play. I didn't understand why it is computed as a -EV play. Observe the graph below:

[IMG][/IMG]
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 08:19 AM
Because you got it in 3 way with less than 33% equity. So you "ran above expectation" by winning the 100% of the pot when your equity share was only 25% or whatever it was

In short, it doesn't mean anything about your play for this hand
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
I think you definitely want to just open fold the flop Because you got it in 3 way with less than 33% equity. So you "ran above expectation" by winning the 100% of the pot when your equity share was only 25% or whatever it was
.

z0mgtilz are you even serious here?Fold flop with spr 0.3??

With this much dead money he doesn`t need 33%.He needs 16% 3way in

order to make profit.

Last edited by Purasevic; 12-07-2017 at 10:45 AM.
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 12:10 PM
No, I wasn't being serious
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
No, I wasn't being serious
weird behaving for someone whose occupation is `poker player`.
Doubt about EV Quote
12-07-2017 , 06:50 PM
I mean... Do you really not understand this? It's a pretty simple concept really..

PT can't adjust EV magically for the ranges of your opponents, so it says nothing about something being an actually +EV play against your opponents ranges or not.

What it does do is throw the numbers into a calculator and see what % you had to win the pot, and gives you that amount as your EV line.

In this case you had 26% chance to win the pot when the money got in, so your EV is 374bb x 0.26 = 97bb. But you put 110bb in the middle, making the play slightly -EV as far as graphing it goes.


ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
666 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5j2
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
4h2sAdAs26.13% 16812
Jc9dTc7c20.42% 1360
4s3hKhKs53.45% 35012

edit: This is basically what z0mg meant when he wrote
Quote:
fix your holecard reader first man, PT4 can't calculate your range v range equity without it
He was being ironic over the fact that you seem to think that PT4 should be able to figure out if something is *ACTUALLY* a winning play or not. Which would make it a winning poker bot, not a tracking program..

Last edited by Loctus; 12-07-2017 at 06:54 PM. Reason: .
Doubt about EV Quote
12-08-2017 , 07:09 AM
Thank you guys for the replies, now I understood it.

@Loctus, of course I know PT4 don't adjust opponents' ranges, but I thought that it considered the dead money. So, when I went all-in with 26%, I didn't put 110bb in the middle, but only 61bb...

Then, 97bb - 61bb = 36bb.

That's why I thought I should have a positive EV all-in adjusted graph with this hand...
Doubt about EV Quote
12-09-2017 , 03:24 AM
Dead money doesn't change how much you actually invest in the calculations it just makes your minimum odds to Breakeven less or rather makes your price more attractive. You're still putting 110bb in as a percentage fraction of the entire pot.

But yeah I'll reiterate the point that the software's calculated EV line is a whole different animal to what is or isn't a +EV play. Getting most of your stack in pre with AAxx and shoving any flop with an SPR <1 will always be +EV over a significant sample size, even if in the moment and after knowing your opponents hole cards you won more or less than your expected value.
Doubt about EV Quote
12-09-2017 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mandracon
Thank you guys for the replies, now I understood it.

@Loctus, of course I know PT4 don't adjust opponents' ranges, but I thought that it considered the dead money. So, when I went all-in with 26%, I didn't put 110bb in the middle, but only 61bb...

Then, 97bb - 61bb = 36bb.

That's why I thought I should have a positive EV all-in adjusted graph with this hand...
Yea the problem with that is that everyone involved in the hand would get a huge +EV line in that case (since you want the entire EV of the pot, but only "pay" the EV you put in on the flop) and everyone ever would have an amazing EV line and run way under EV. And no, it doesn't take street by street EV in consideration.

You get your EV of the whole pot calculated by the EV when the money goes in.
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