Example we have nuts str8 on QJTss board
Without fd, we betting flop with AKxx and get called by reg, turn is a blank we bet again and get raised, so now we know he have also AKxx and can bluff him out of split when come QJT or any spade.
I playing omaha 5 card live ,we are always deep and that situation is not rarity. I have a few regs who like to do that, also I use it, but nobody believes me and we split when i shove.
I want to catch them and want to ask you guys any suggestions.
Lets imagin situation that we have a top set and nfd, we know that he have a nuts straight and he will not push allin if we raise flop or turn.
Lets start from turn and we 300 bb eff deep.
Board is a J 10 9 5hh, pot is 30 bb
He betting 20bb with KQxx and now we have JJA5hh,we raise to 90bb and he calls and will bluff when heart come and pair on the board.
Pot is 210bb and 210bb left
So we have about 35% equity and winning all the money 630bb when he bluff, but we lose 90bb in 65% of times. Check my calculation please. If i not hitting my outs i check behind.
630*0.35=220 we win
90*0.65=58.5 we lose
So ev is 161.5bb?
What about situations when he pot again when think that he freeroling me with lower fd and lower set? How often they can be?
I think we should not speak about flop situations because even on turn we have +ev situation.
Not sure why you'd need to be bluffing all that often in a game like this. It seems splashy as hell & getting to showdown often, which means the value-portion of our range is probably getting paid off at a disproportionate rate. I rather just set these guys up to be freerolled when we both have AKxxx on QJT, but where we're the one w/ a FD, or something like AKTTx, while he has something naked like AK65xr.
If they never believe you, what's the value of the bluff? Instead just get stickier with your nut flush draws (maybe even other big FD?) and get them to keep paying to get shown flushes.