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bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout?

08-03-2017 , 04:49 PM
    Prima, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $10 (100 bb)
    BB: $13.60 (136 bb)
    UTG: $3.50 (35 bb)
    MP: $10 (100 bb)
    CO: $29.76 (297.6 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $19.91 (199.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 K 8 K
    MP posts BB OOP, UTG folds, MP checks, CO raises to $0.45, Hero raises to $1.60, 3 folds, CO calls $1.15

    Flop: ($3.45) 9 4 A (2 players)
    CO checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($3.45) A (2 players)
    CO checks, Hero checks

    River: ($3.45) A (2 players)
    CO bets $3.45, Hero ?

    no stats on villain (MGM)
    have seen some fishy moves by him like openlimping or coldcalling pretty bad hands. I'd say he openraises slightly more than average and has a significantly higher VPIP.
    Postflop he has been very passive over the course of like 3-5 samples and even missing a pretty clear valuebet with the Q high flush where the turn checked through 3way. All that makes me worry that he has it more often than not. From a theory standpoint I'm not sure one can pick a better bluffcatcher than this. Doesn't seem like there is a natural choice. However, I think his iso/call 3b range preflop contains a lot of Ax and him potting makes it quite unlikely he has worse for value.
    Do you like a disciplined fold given the info provided or do you still think this has to be a defend?
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-03-2017 , 05:39 PM
    Level?
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-03-2017 , 07:01 PM
    This is such a standard call-as-fast-asyou-can snapcall, that you might wanna analyze more hands
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 03:04 AM
    Is it? What do you expect to be ahead of then? I think the runout, his sizing and his playing style so far make it very unlikely he's bluffing or valuebetting worse. If I give him $FI20 OTR, any Ax still makes up ~22% of his entire range and it's still a fold if I give him half of his QQ and a third of his JJ combos.
    Remember that at these stakes recs a) bluff way too little, b) don't valuebet thinly enough c) frequently check/trap strong hands on early streets than you might be used to at your stakes. I could be convinced, that this is still a +ev call but I can't see how this is not close. Which part of his range do you think I underestimate then?
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 04:00 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chen Heiner
    Is it? What do you expect to be ahead of then? I think the runout, his sizing and his playing style so far make it very unlikely he's bluffing or valuebetting worse. If I give him $FI20 OTR, any Ax still makes up ~22% of his entire range and it's still a fold if I give him half of his QQ and a third of his JJ combos.
    Remember that at these stakes recs a) bluff way too little, b) don't valuebet thinly enough c) frequently check/trap strong hands on early streets than you might be used to at your stakes. I could be convinced, that this is still a +ev call but I can't see how this is not close. Which part of his range do you think I underestimate then?
    If villain's a passive fish who literally bets nothing until the river and then full pots the nuts and nothing else - and yes there's lots of them around at micros. Then easy fold.

    All other villains - snap call - as it's very clear by the river you don't have an ace.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 04:42 AM
    call , unlucky u lost to quads
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 05:56 AM
    Fold sounds right given villain description
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 06:46 AM
    Lol at ever folding, against nearly any opponent I am raising river for value in this spot. Player reads aside card removal alone is enough to justify a never fold.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 08:22 AM
    I think villain is polarized here between bluffs (with like worse turned boats that now can't win) or Ax/KK. Can't see QQ and below valuing their hand this much here. Given the action I don't think he really pots the river very often as a bluff either.

    I know a lot of you would expect villains to bet all their good trips/boats on the turn but really, these monkeys love to check raise and some will only check call without the absolute nuts

    Raising with a bluffcatcher on the river vs. a polarized range is lolbad

    I think it's close but you probably win the pot 33% of the time here with KK, so call. Folding is the correct play if you think he'd rarely pot the river as a bluff (river pot bets at micros are like 94% the nuts).

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolarAU
    Player reads aside card removal alone is enough to justify a never fold.
    Considering you're blocking one of the only hands most villains at this stake would pot for value that we don't lose to, I have to disagree with this. In general at 25PL and below villains pot betting ranges are extremely value heavy. You can literally just exploit them all by never calling their value bets. Card removal is less of a factor than totally unbalanced ranges

    Last edited by DoOrDoNot; 08-04-2017 at 08:41 AM.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 11:13 AM
    Wow I would just snap call and not think twice about anything in this spot.

    Would consider betting turn for protection though.

    Glad river bet isn't a lot smaller since then we would suddenly have to start thinking about raising.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-04-2017 , 04:05 PM
    Calling is standard in this spot, folding is an option, and raising is horrendous.

    Probably is a fold with your specific read. A "very passive player" just isn't potting queens or less for value and is rarely bluffing. Really not all that rare of a player type IMO.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote
    08-05-2017 , 09:20 PM
    vs really nitty regs I might fold vs everyone else just instacall and move on to the next hand.
    And I think I would cbet flop or atleast the turn.
    bluffcatch river with KK on trip A runout? Quote

          
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