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Small Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 1/2 and below pot-limit Omaha poker

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Old 02-02-2011, 12:36 PM   #1
Eschat
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Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

What are the some of the basic Omaha probabilities that people would use most often? For instance the pre-flop odds of any random player having two pair after the flop/turn/river, the odds of three of a kind, of a straight, flush, and of a full house.

I've seen charts for this for NLHE but couldn't locate any for Omaha.
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Old 02-02-2011, 02:02 PM   #2
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Of the top of my head it's 50% to make a flush with any double suited hands and 95% to win when you have KK vs AAxx

I don't get why people do these posts tbh, they achieve nothing!
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Old 02-02-2011, 02:19 PM   #3
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Your confusion puzzles me. Seems fairly evident why these kinds of basic nuggets would be helpful

And I wasn't talking about outs or hands vs. particular hands, just general distributions of how likely certain hands are to be made. I've googled for Omaha charts and such but couldn't quite find what I was looking for.
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Old 02-02-2011, 02:20 PM   #4
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

But I don't see how useful that information is at all!
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Old 02-02-2011, 02:59 PM   #5
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

I think you're 25% to make a set when you have a double-paired starting hand. That's the only one I know off the top of my head.

And AA** hands make up ~2.5% of starting hands.

Other than that, I'm going to have to agree with Swingtastic on this. Relative hand strength probabilities are going to be less useful in PLO than NL because of all the possible draws. And trying to layer the draw probabilities on top of the hand probablities... that way lies madness.

Instead, evaluate flop textures and ranges based on the action to your decision point, IMO.

I'll leave this open in case anyone wants to weigh in, but I doubt you'll find what you're looking for. If you can't find it on the interwebz, it's probably not there.
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Old 02-02-2011, 03:20 PM   #6
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Knowing relative flopability of given hands is important as part of your preflop selection criteria.

Tom Chambers's book has a ton of this info in the free chapters, IIRC - so you might want to check that out.
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Old 02-02-2011, 10:50 PM   #7
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Something I've always wondered - If you have a 4 card rundown, what are the odds you'll flop better than an OESD?
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Old 02-03-2011, 02:54 AM   #8
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

I never memorised any of these. After playing a lot of hands you learn to establish ranges and begin to realise which hands you can call with profitably against different types of opponents.

Every pair has a 12.5% chance of flopping a set therefore double paired =25% and AA make up 2.5% of preflop hands.
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Old 02-03-2011, 06:38 AM   #9
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AveeMaria View Post
I never memorised any of these. After playing a lot of hands you learn to establish ranges and begin to realise which hands you can call with profitably against different types of opponents.

Every pair has a 12.5% chance of flopping a set therefore double paired =25% and AA make up 2.5% of preflop hands.
You copied on Leroy..
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Old 02-03-2011, 07:00 AM   #10
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Those things are really easy to calculate:
Starthand AAxx

( (4 nCR 2) x (48 nCR 2) ) / ( 52 nCR 4 )

Make a set with a 2pair hand on the flop

( ( 4 nCR 1) x ( 44 nCR 2 ) / (48 nCR 3)

etc etc

Its so easy to calculate all those things.

For more than a OESD is a little bit harder, but an easy way to get close is this.
Say you got 789t (no suit)
than we simple say that ervery 5/6/7/8/9/t/j/q is good and you need at least 2 of them. ( I know thats not true, because if you hit a J and a 6 you dont come close) that are in total 28 cards.
Well lets say not all of them are good..so make it 24.

(24 nCR 2) x (24 nCR 1) / ( 48 nCR 3)
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Old 02-03-2011, 07:55 AM   #11
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

Quote:
Originally Posted by heh View Post
Knowing relative flopability of given hands is important as part of your preflop selection criteria.

Tom Chambers's book has a ton of this info in the free chapters, IIRC - so you might want to check that out.
Yes this is exactly why I was interested in this stuff - "relative flopability" is a good term
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:26 AM   #12
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

http://seanpoker.net/327/articles/hi...-in-omaha-5678

I found this article intesteing...

I think asking this question can help a new player understand the value of premium rundown/double suited/doble paired hands...
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Old 02-03-2011, 02:37 PM   #13
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Re: Basic Omaha probabilities? (for making hands)

The Sean Poker article is one of the best i have seen, i extrapolated the data to get this information which i used for this video

789Tds


2 Pair 9%
Trips/FH/Quads 3%
Straight draw 19%
Nut straight 3%
Non nut straight 2%

Total 36%

Flush 2%
Flush Draw 23%
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