Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
Given the action, there is no way a solid reg would raise with 2xxx or even 92xx.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
Can we agree that based on the preflop action, it is very likely that I have Aces? Raising a multiway limped pot from the blinds is a big indicator of my hand strength.
Don't assume your opponents take the same view as you do, when it comes to someone raising out of position. Even a solid reg won't always assume you have AAxx just because you raised OOP vs a bunch of limpers or check raised the flop.
He is very likely not shipping 22xx on the turn because he knows you have AAxx and can't get away from it. If he thinks you have AAxx, you're obviously going to bet the river, so no need to ship on the turn. . On the flip side, you did check raise him on the flop, so he could be shipping quads because you showed strength and he feels that you can't get away from your hand, regardless of what it is.
The point that a lot of people are trying to get across, is that your opponent having quads is such a rare occurrence, that you shouldn't overthink the situation as much as you possibly are. Yes, we have all run into quads with top boat, but your long term profitability will be affected if you fold top boat into pressure, every single time someone ships a paired board.
Whether or not you feel that the player you are against is solid, doesn't mean that he or she will always take the line that you feel a solid player would take. The last thing you want to do is assume your opponents think the same way you would. That will lead to misunderstanding, missed opportunities and misplayed situations.
There is nothing wrong with trying to figure out what an opponent has in a certain situation, that is what this forum is for. However, in this situation, you really should just fist pump and ship it in. Trying to soul read whether or not your opponent has quads or not, is likely just going to cause you grief.
Whatever the end result was, mark down some notes on how your opponent played the hand, because it would be good to know if he bluffed or semi-bluffed this spot, got frisky with quads or decided to go with a 2xxx hand now on the turn, to avoid a tough river spot if the flush hit.