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Originally Posted by sdclaw
Was in SB as i was first to act after LAS. Honestly i didn't notice the straddle or i would have gone 4bb or pot pre. My read here was I had been slapping him around (won 3 heads up pots in last 4 hands) and I knew he had spew tendencies. Do you think he ends up with a broadway pair plus straight draw type hand often enough here to call shove?
Problem is that the times you are ahead, it's not by much, and when you are beat, you're crushed.
QJJ8 is flipping against you. Even QJJ2 has 36% equity.
On the other hand, if he has T9xx, T87x, QJTx, you have 20% equity or less.
So he needs to be spazzing a pretty high % of the time for you to profitably call.
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My feeling was the paired board wasnt ideal but it hit such a low percentage of his hands (hes on almost any 4 cards at this point)
Even if he is literally 4betting any 4 cards (and I highly doubt that he is), he still has a 17% chance of having a T by pure luck.
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and so many turn cards are scare cards for me I was best committing OTF.
Actually more turn cards are good for you than bad for you. Any A, J, T, 6 or heart improves your hand, and any 2-5 is neutral, so that's 70% of the deck you don't really need to worry about.