.25/.50 plo bodog

Hero is bb, Ah 9h 5h Ts, 100 bb
Villain is mp, 100 bb

Villain pots, call, call.

Flop Qh 8h 2h

Villain bets 2/3 pot, hero check raises 2.5x his bet.

Turn 9c

Hero bets 3/4 pot, v calls

River 8c (approx 100bb)

Hero checks, villain jams remaining 50 bbs

Is this a standard fold or should you ever be calling here hoping to look up a smaller flush trying to make a move

*Edited for sizing correction

In general when the board pairs you do want to get away from a nut flush that you have been playing aggressively, because your opponent clearly either has the fill up draw or a flush, and it is unlikely that someone would turn a flush into a bluff. But if villain and you have already put 75 bb into the pot then I think you can look him up getting 7:1.

GTO wise you should be calling some of the time else villain can just turn every weaker flush into a bluff.

Villain can only really have QQ here - i mean 1 combo of quads but not every 88 raises pre. So obviously the best hand you can call with is a nut flush that also has a Q in it. So absent of reads I would fold every nut flush except if I had a Q.

Getting only 3:1 it is a lot more marginal, because you would have to think that any flush is going to take the free showdown, and it is pretty optimistic to imagine he was just hanging on with top and bottom.

have to call here after getting to the river, can have a worse flush a lot more often than needed
why do you raise on the flop? I just find people fold so much here when you have the nuts

Right, i agree a flat on the flop may play better. My thinking at the time was all sub flushes are shutting down after flop and they're folding flops and turns. I raised to hopefully get money from a stubborn set. What are your thoughts on how to proceed?

If the general consensus is that it is a fold, then wouldn't the correct play for villain to pot 100% of time when we check to him when the board changes? How could this be combatted?

It's rare for players to turn SDV into a bluff for a 1/2 pot bet on the river when checked to.

The exploit in this hand should be betting pot OTF and OTT getting stacks in before the river.

If villain should shove every time the board pairs and hero checks, the only way to effectively combat this, is to call down this river a certain percentage of the time to keep villain honest. No clue how often that would be lol.

In regards to your play, check raising flop feels like we're burning money. Unless villain has the K high flush, its likely you fold out all hands that want to play. I'm looking for a check raise on the turn, where we can basically commit ourselves to the pot and likely force villain into putting the rest of his stack in or folding. Not that I want him or her to fold on the turn, but as soon as you check raise the flop, you're taking the betting initiative away and villain is likely to call any turn bet with a set and hope for the best.

There is certainly a chance that villain checks turn when checked too and gets a free card, but we can't base our play on a fear of getting outdrawn.

As some have mentioned, most people aren't making big plays with weaker hands on this river, especially for only half a stack. I'm likely folding, topping up and moving on.

Side Note: I do like this point by F_Ivanovic, when you are absent of reads, which you will often be on the anonymous tables.

"I would fold every nut flush except if I had a Q."

I think folding all nut flushes except those with a Q might actually be too nitty - or maybe not, but I know in my shoes I'm probably calling at least 50% of the time bc otherwise villain is just auto profiting by shoving any weaker flush OTR. I know the 9 isn't relevant since we aren't up against 99 anyway, but I probably just arbitarily call with any hand that has a pair OTB so that I can somehow balance out how often I'm calling.

If you C/R this flop and get called I see no reason not to pot the turn.

As for the river. Another way you can counter letting the villain bet 100% when the board changes, if that's happening, is to sometimes check the nuts OOP. I kind of doubt you're facing a player who's bluffing with that frequency though.

If you pot the turn, most villains are folding a set because they're not getting anywhere near the right odds. They're also more likely to get away from a lower flush. I see no reason to pot the turn because we get villain to make more incorrect calls with a smaller bet-size whilst leaving money behind to GII on the river for a tempting size for villains to still call worse.

If the flop went donk call and not check/raise call I would agree. If villain is calling with a lower flush in that spot then I doubt their decision to call an additional bet will be determined by the size. Obviously OP can't know his 3/4 bet is going to get called but if that size is getting looked up I doubt full pot is getting a fold.

Full pot may get more folds but if the margin is small enough it's still a more profitable bet to make. Obviously I have no way to know if that's true in this scenario.

Adding to the theoretical discussion:

- As a bluffcatcher, having three hearts is bad for card removal, and that makes a much bigger difference than the 9x. Also makes it not such a great Ahh to x/r the flop.

- Eyeballing it, villain shouldn't have many bad flushes after c-betting 3-way and calling a x/r and a turn bet, but can have lots of QQ.

- QQ is better than Khh against a [Ahh, Ah] x/r -> bet turn range, and because Ahh also can eventually become such a big % of a range when not blocked, playing QQ a bunch this way can't be "exploited" (if you want to call it that) on the flop by us going for value with Khh.

- About sometimes checking the nuts on the river: we should always check because Villain's range crushes.

- Bet sizing as played looks fine. Larger than GGoP because flushes need protection against QQ, but potting is probably overdoing it.


Practically speaking, the most important consideration is whether people would even consider jamming a flush as a bluff (on Bodog 50 PLO). But this combo should be a fold regardless.

Perhaps my thoughts on potting the turn are misguided. Could be a spot I'm missing value on when ahead by betting too large in similar spots against random opponents. That said I do have players in my pool I've noted to bet big against. Some folks don't factor bet sizes and are happy to chase down. Player dependent of course.

I likely pot the turn also.
Curse and wish terrible things on villain when board pairs and X/F river

Vs normal players it’s a fold. I think probably 90% of SSPLO players check back a smaller flush without much thought. Vs tilty aggros, very though players, and very bad players, you just have to mostly call.