50 PLO Flop spot with overpair plus gutshot - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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50 PLO Flop spot with overpair plus gutshot

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03-19-2018 , 11:58 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 102.26 BB (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
Hero (BTN): 227.78 BB
SB: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 5.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
BB: 98.72 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 98.88 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 38)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) T

BB checks, Hero bets 4.64 BB, BB raises to 20.1 BB, Hero ?

What's our play here? Should we have just checked back in the first place?

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03-19-2018 , 12:37 PM

md46135

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 420

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Should we have just checked back in the first place?

you have top pair with overpair, I would cbet this pretty much every time.

I guess now you just fold.

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03-19-2018 , 01:48 PM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

It just feels gross to fold in this spot. Even against a range of TTxx, KTx, and KKxx, we still have 29% equity. Add some combo draws in and it feels like we should have enough equity to se another card, no?

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03-19-2018 , 04:18 PM

md46135

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 420

29% equity is for seeing 2 cards, not just one.

the fact that you have Ad should make it less likely that he raised with a flush draw, so I guess it's one more argument for bet/fold. what do you think is the worst hand he's raising with & how much equity you have against it? and even more important, how will the hand play out? if you plan to call the raise and fold on the turn unimproved, you'll be doing a lot of folding.

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03-19-2018 , 06:15 PM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by md46135

Sure, but because we're IP, we will generally make good decisions. The times we have to fold unimproved are more than balanced out by the times we hit and have positive implied odds.

We're basically even money against 9876 or QJ9x. We're rarely doing great, but we're rarely doing that badly either. I mean if he has a set we're pretty ****ed, but we have a K blocker.

I just think it's bad to fold this much equity in position, so I don't like bet/fold. If we don't have enough equity to bet/call, then I think we should check back the flop.

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03-19-2018 , 07:31 PM

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by poloplaya1414

If we don't have enough equity to bet/call, then I think we should check back the flop.

No, it's far better for the EV of the initial bet to face a x/r quite infrequently but be forced to fold, than to face a x/r more frequently while still being indifferent or only slightly preferring a call.

Compare:

x/r freq	EVs facing a x/r after bet	amount of initial bet lost when x/r'd	total EV lost to x/r when c-betting
6.00%	fold: 0 call: -(a bunch)	4.64	0.2784
15.00%	fold: 0 call: 0	4.64	0.696
17.50%	fold: 0 call: +0.40	4.24	0.742

Numbers chosen are arbitrary but convey the gist -- which is that a frequent and semi-balanced x/r range is the biggest enemy to c-betting mid-strength hands, not a tight x/r range.

When you think you're against a nitty x/r range, you are actually in a good spot for gameplanning overall.

Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 03-19-2018 at 07:47 PM.

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03-19-2018 , 08:14 PM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami

x/r freq	EVs facing a x/r after bet	amount of initial bet lost when x/r'd	total EV lost to x/r when c-betting
6.00%	fold: 0 call: -(a bunch)	4.64	0.2784
15.00%	fold: 0 call: 0	4.64	0.696
17.50%	fold: 0 call: +0.40	4.24	0.742

This is fine, but doesn't address my point which is that folding away equity is bad.

If we have 30% equity on flop, checking back and realizing that equity is much, much better than betting and folding to a c/r.

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03-19-2018 , 08:50 PM

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

When you are facing a x/r a sufficiently low %, that isn't important.

Betting and getting a call (because your hand has a lot more than 30% against hands that call), and betting and getting a fold (because it's +pot EV) are likewise "much, much better" than checking back. Checking back is a tradeoff between doing better against the parts of a range that would x/r vs. doing worse against the parts of a range that would x/c or x/f. And against a low x/r frequency, the latter two dominate the EV calc and thus betting ends up being better. Focusing on the occurrence of a x/r is being results-oriented.

Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 03-19-2018 at 08:56 PM.

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03-20-2018 , 11:44 AM

Purasevic

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 768

But what we do when we have no stats or info on villain` s c/raise frequencies?

This hand with k and nf blocker looks like mandatory cbet, we don`t benefit much from

seeing turns and would prefer to take it down on the flop.But once we get raised what turn card do we want to see?As said having Ad makes straight and flush draw combos less likely.Looks to me that we would be folding turn way to often,and don`t think implied odds of hitting 3 J or potentially being able to bluff diamonds are great.

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03-20-2018 , 07:27 PM

#10

FUJItheFISH

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 6,620

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What's our play here?

+1 to Flop c-bet of 2/3 ~ 3/4 pot

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Should we have just checked back in the first place?

I would guess that checking back a hand like this would make our c-betting range too strong. After c-betting I don't know what's best but I would go with fold>4-bet>>call.

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03-21-2018 , 06:04 AM

#11

ReGen

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 608

If I think about it a bit more, I would actually prefer a cold-call barring any other reads. There are lots of ways this hand could go and I haven´t done any math, but my gut feeling is that we will make money by calling and raising/betting any diamonds, nines, non-pairing broadways etc. Also if he checks or bets small, we can opt to check behind and/or call. I think it is better than getting it in here.

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03-21-2018 , 10:25 AM

#12

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReGen

I think this is the right answer.

In real life, I jammed over the top, and villain called with KJT7 w/ no diamonds. Turn was a K and river was a blank and that was that.

I had 35% equity on the flop, and with the A of diamonds, I would've been in a great spot to bluff if a third diamond hit. Not sure I would've bluffed at a 9 since villain probably has a lot of QJ combos in his range too but I still think calling is right.

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