3-handed play currently, villain has $40, hero covers. Hero dealt A
Q
K
3
in SB. Button folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls.
Flop ($2.85) K
Q
2
Hero bets ($2.14). BB calls.
Turn ($6.92) Q
Hero bets ($5.19). BB calls.
River ($16.78) 7
Hero bets $12.07. BB raises to $25, with $7 more behind. Hero?
Looking back, I don't like my river bet. BB's flop range is two pair, sets, and wraps. BB's range after calling turn leans towards 22, QQ, KK, KQ, Q2 and rarely some AJT combo.
When thinking about a river bet OOP here, all it would accomplish is encouraging better hands to fold, or getting value from worse hands. The only conceivable worse hands that would call are 22 and Q2. Wraps are not calling any bet. Better hands (KK, QQ) are never folding here, and are always raising. KK or QQ could take the line the V took.
So, to sum, my river bet seeks to get value from 22 and Q2.
When V raises, he is representing QQ and KK, IMO, and maybe even moreso given V left $7 behind, and didn't shove. Alternately, a weak V could be raising with 22, Q2, or even KQ. Is it worth it to call?